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Stock Ratings / Financials / NKSH / earnings
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National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.2% Move

$40.97 +1.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.04

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $256.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NKSH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NKSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, National Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: NKSH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $40.97 (+1.97% 1D, market cap $256.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NKSH ranks #346 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NKSH compare to OVBC and EFSI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NKSH carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, OVBC (Ohio Valley Banc Corp.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $264.8M) and EFSI (Eagle Financial Services Inc) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 4.3%, cap $246.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEBK leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PEBK leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NKSH?
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Per NKSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000796534), National Bankshares Inc. generated $766.3M in revenue (+0.7% YoY), $15.8M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.04 (+0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$49 Bull$42 Base$33 Bear
📬 FREE NKSH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NKSH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NKSH SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 72% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$43.20+1.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$44.01-7.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$40.77+0.5% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$40.97+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NKSH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, NKSH faces multiple-compression risk if 16.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.19) or 200D SMA ($38.43) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.71) toward Bear Floor ($32.53).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NKSH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NKSH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.2% Swing Band

±$2.54 Expected Swing
$38.43 (-6.2%)Spot $40.97$43.51 (+6.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NKSH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $2.48 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$766.3M$15.8M$17.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$760.9M$7.6M$9.4M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$70.6M$15.7M$15.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NKSH & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NKSH
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NKSH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.15%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $40.95H $40.97L $40.18C $40.97VOL 35.9K
RES: $46.39SUP: $39.53SMA50: $42.19SMA200: $38.43
$46.92$43.08$39.24$35.40$31.56RES $46.39SUP $39.53$40.972026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NKSH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NKSH Butterfly Map → + Track NKSH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
9.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NKSH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NKSH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NKSH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NKSH)

Financials Rank #346 of 1097 ⚔️ OVBC vs NKSH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NKSH vs. OVBC, EFSI, RMBI, PEBK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) ranks #346 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #843 by equity capitalization ($256.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PEBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while PEBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. OVBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with NKSH at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NKSH ACTIVE
National Bankshares Inc.
C 62/100 16.5x — 8.6% +1.97% $256.0M Benchmark Subject
OVBC
Ohio Valley Banc Corp.
C+ 68/100 17.3x — 9.2% +3.17% $264.8M /ovbc-vs-nksh →
EFSI
Eagle Financial Services Inc
C 63/100 30.3x — 4.3% +1.41% $246.8M /efsi-vs-nksh →
RMBI
Richmond Mutual Bancorporation Inc.
C 65/100 23.0x — 7.9% -0.44% $265.8M /rmbi-vs-nksh →
PEBK
Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.3x — 12.6% +1.06% $240.5M /pebk-vs-nksh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000796534 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) reported GAAP revenue of $766.3M (+0.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $760.9M , and +985.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.8M, operating cash flow of $17.9M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (+89.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NKSH closed FY2025 with $1.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $766.3M $15.8M $17.9M $17.9M $1.82B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $760.9M $7.6M $9.4M $9.4M $1.81B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $70.6M $15.7M $15.5M $15.5M — —

3. NKSH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NKSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, National Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: NKSH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $40.97 (+1.97% 1D, market cap $256.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NKSH ranks #346 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NKSH compare to OVBC and EFSI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NKSH carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, OVBC (Ohio Valley Banc Corp.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $264.8M) and EFSI (Eagle Financial Services Inc) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 4.3%, cap $246.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEBK leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PEBK leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NKSH?

Per NKSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000796534), National Bankshares Inc. generated $766.3M in revenue (+0.7% YoY), $15.8M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NKSH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NKSH last traded at $40.97 (+1.97% on volume of 13,188 shares), positioning the stock -2.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($42.19) and +6.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.43). Across its 52-week range of $28.35 to $45.99, NKSH sits at the 71.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($38.43 to $43.51).

Direct Sub-Reports: NKSH RQD Cockpit NKSH 12M Forecast NKSH Earnings & Move NKSH Dividends & DRIP NKSH Insiders & 13F NKSH Whale Options NKSH Profit Sankey NKSH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NKSH — National Bankshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $40.97 (+1.97% 1D, market capitalization $256.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.86%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, classified under the Major Banks industry per the SEC profile..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) reported $766.3M in annual revenue (up from $760.9M in FY2024, +0.7% YoY) and $15.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($70.6M revenue, $15.7M net income) through FY2025, NKSH scaled operating cash flow to $17.9M and free cash flow to $17.9M, backed by $1.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.86% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $28.35 – $45.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 16.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Financials / Major Banks classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can NKSH sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.6% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $766.3M and free cash flow of $17.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NKSH's 15.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NKSH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NKSH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NKSH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.97?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NKSH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NKSH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.43 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 16 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar in the rating.

Picked up a starter position in NKSH in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $40.18. Insider conviction scores 16 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar in the rating.. Trading inside a $28.35–$45.99 52-week range with 6.86% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Major Banks multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $40.18 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.75 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $40.18

Whale 13F Flow scores only 8 of 20, signaling weak institutional accumulation alongside declining cash from $108.1M to $59.2M.

Careful chasing NKSH at $40.18. Whale 13F Flow scores only 8 of 20, signaling weak institutional accumulation alongside declining cash from $108.1M to $59.2M.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $33.75 on multiple compression.

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