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Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.66 +22.31% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.84

Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $145.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NVA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Nova Minerals Corp (NYSE: NVA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $4.66 (+22.31% 1D, market cap $145.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NVA ranks #211 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NVA compare to GLDG and PLG in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), NVA carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GLDG (GoldMining Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $155.5M) and PLG (Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (Canada)) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $134.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NVA leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVA?
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Per NVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001852551), Nova Minerals Corp generated $53.0M in revenue, -$11.8M in net income, and -$7.8M in free cash flow against $0 in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.84 (+3.83%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (10)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$13 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE NVA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NVA SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 46.7% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
28
Grade E$4.43-29.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$3.13+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
33
Grade E$3.18+46.5% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$4.66-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (28) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NVA currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.95) and Max Pain ($4.89) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.74.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NVA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.66: 2145.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.28
$7,039
$-2,961 (-29.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.20
$9,013
$-987 (-9.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $12.74
$27,339
+$17,339 (+173.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NVA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.07%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $3.50H $4.66L $3.50C $4.66VOL 1.25M
RES: $5.48SUP: $2.57SMA50: $4.95SMA200: $5.95
$9.30$7.55$5.80$4.06$2.31RES $5.48SUP $2.57$4.662026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NVA Butterfly Map → + Track NVA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVA)

Materials Rank #211 of 270 ⚔️ GLDG vs NVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NVA vs. GLDG, PLG, TMCR, SBMT)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) ranks #211 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #217 by equity capitalization ($145.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with — ROIC and — gross margin. GLDG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with NVA at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NVA ACTIVE
Nova Minerals Corp
D- 36/100 — — — +22.31% $145.5M Benchmark Subject
GLDG
GoldMining Inc.
D 46/100 — — — -0.65% $155.5M /gldg-vs-nva →
PLG
Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (Canada)
D 44/100 — — — -3.81% $134.3M /plg-vs-nva →
TMCR
The Metals Royalty Company Inc.
D 44/100 — — — +15.39% $131.5M /tmcr-vs-nva →
SBMT
Silver Bow Mining Corp.
D- 43/100 — — — -7.03% $176.3M /sbmt-vs-nva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001852551 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) reported GAAP revenue of $53.0M , GAAP net income of -$11.8M, operating cash flow of -$7.7M, and free cash flow of -$7.8M . On the balance sheet, NVA closed FY2025 with $0 in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $53.0M -$11.8M -$7.7M -$7.8M — —

3. NVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Nova Minerals Corp (NYSE: NVA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $4.66 (+22.31% 1D, market cap $145.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NVA ranks #211 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NVA compare to GLDG and PLG in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), NVA carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GLDG (GoldMining Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $155.5M) and PLG (Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (Canada)) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $134.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NVA leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVA?

Per NVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001852551), Nova Minerals Corp generated $53.0M in revenue, -$11.8M in net income, and -$7.8M in free cash flow against $0 in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVA last traded at $4.66 (+22.31% on volume of 2,233,286 shares), positioning the stock -5.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.95) and -21.68% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.95). Across its 52-week range of $2.85 to $12.13, NVA sits at the 19.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.08 to $5.24).

Direct Sub-Reports: NVA RQD Cockpit NVA 12M Forecast NVA Earnings & Move NVA Dividends & DRIP NVA Insiders & 13F NVA Whale Options NVA Profit Sankey NVA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NVA — Nova Minerals Corp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.66 (+22.31% 1D, market capitalization $145.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -5.87%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Precious Metals industry (Materials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $145.5M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0% (free cash flow yield of -5.87%). Within the Precious Metals peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) reported $53.0M in annual revenue and -$11.8M in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached -$7.7M and free cash flow totaled -$7.8M, backed by $0 in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -5.87% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.85 – $12.13 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Precious Metals (Materials), NVA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can NVA sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Precious Metals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $53.0M and free cash flow of -$7.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NVA's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NVA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.66?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NVA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NVA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.84 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Permit approvals and a $249M U.S. rail commitment for Port Mackenzie give the Alaska antimony project a concrete infrastructure catalys

Permit approvals and a $249M U.S. rail commitment for Port Mackenzie give the Alaska antimony project a concrete infrastructure catalyst.. When you look under the hood at NVA, Fundamental Cash Engine is 10/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 0.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (5/20) has been quietly accumulating below $12.13. My 12M target is $4.84.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Precious Metals. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.09 (-18.9%)
Spot @ $3.81

Zero FY 2025 revenue, a -$11.8M net loss, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 leave no cash-generating base beneath the catalyst story.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NVA: Zero FY 2025 revenue, a -$11.8M net loss, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 leave no cash-generating base beneath the catalyst story.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Precious Metals triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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