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Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.23 -0.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.22

Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $866.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NXDR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: NXDR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $2.23 (-0.45% 1D, market cap $866.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, NXDR ranks #374 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NXDR compare to TBLA and DSP in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), NXDR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 84.1%, and ROIC of -15.4%. By comparison, TBLA (Taboola.com Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 21.0x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $873.6M) and DSP (Viant Technology Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 106.2x, ROIC 21.5%, cap $853.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, YALA leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while YALA leads on capital efficiency (34.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXDR?
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Per NXDR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001846069), Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $257.6M in revenue (+4.2% YoY), -$54.2M in net income, and $5.9M in free cash flow against $486.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.22 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510047
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-
Cash (13)Whales (4)SEC (16)Macro (8)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE NXDR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXDR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NXDR SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.04 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.3% FCF Margin ($5.9M FCF) & 84.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$2.50-2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$2.43-2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$2.37-5.9% Next Q
Current
47
Grade D$2.23-5.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXDR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NXDR currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.35) and Max Pain ($2.34) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXDR• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NXDR Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NXDR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.23: 4484.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.65
$7,399
$-2,601 (-26.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.12
$9,507
$-493 (-4.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $2.78
$12,466
+$2,466 (+24.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXDR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NXDR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NXDR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.35%
2026-11-02O $2.30H $2.32L $2.22C $2.23VOL 1.54M
SMA50: $2.42
$2.68$2.55$2.42$2.28$2.15$2.232026-10-162026-10-202026-10-232026-10-282026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXDR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NXDR Butterfly Map → + Track NXDR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXDR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXDR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXDR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXDR)

Technology Rank #374 of 715 ⚔️ TBLA vs NXDR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (NXDR vs. TBLA, DSP, YALA, SIFY)

Industry: Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (72 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) ranks #374 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #362 by equity capitalization ($866.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YALA leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while YALA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 34.1% ROIC and 67.3% gross margin. DSP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with NXDR at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NXDR ACTIVE
Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D 47/100 — 84.1% -15.4% -0.45% $866.5M Benchmark Subject
TBLA
Taboola.com Ltd.
D+ 56/100 21.0x 29.8% 3.9% -1.01% $873.6M /tbla-vs-nxdr →
DSP
Viant Technology Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 106.2x 45.8% 21.5% -0.86% $853.2M /dsp-vs-nxdr →
YALA
Yalla Group Limited each representing one Class A Ordinary Share
C 62/100 5.8x 67.3% 34.1% +0.18% $833.5M /yala-vs-nxdr →
SIFY
Sify Technologies Limited
D 48/100 — — — +2.73% $901.1M /sify-vs-nxdr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001846069 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) reported GAAP revenue of $257.6M (+4.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $247.3M , and +18.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$54.2M, operating cash flow of $6.5M, and free cash flow of $5.9M (+128.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXDR closed FY2025 with $486.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.04, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $257.6M -$54.2M $6.5M $5.9M $486.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $247.3M -$98.1M -$20.2M -$20.6M $514.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $218.3M $147.8M -$59.3M -$59.3M — —

3. NXDR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXDR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: NXDR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $2.23 (-0.45% 1D, market cap $866.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, NXDR ranks #374 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NXDR compare to TBLA and DSP in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), NXDR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 84.1%, and ROIC of -15.4%. By comparison, TBLA (Taboola.com Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 21.0x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $873.6M) and DSP (Viant Technology Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 106.2x, ROIC 21.5%, cap $853.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, YALA leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while YALA leads on capital efficiency (34.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXDR?

Per NXDR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001846069), Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $257.6M in revenue (+4.2% YoY), -$54.2M in net income, and $5.9M in free cash flow against $486.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NXDR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXDR last traded at $2.23 (-0.45% on volume of 1,535,575 shares), positioning the stock -5.11% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.35) and -9.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.47). Across its 52-week range of $2.19 to $2.65, NXDR sits at the 8.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.4% ($2.02 to $2.44).

Direct Sub-Reports: NXDR RQD Cockpit NXDR 12M Forecast NXDR Earnings & Move NXDR Dividends & DRIP NXDR Insiders & 13F NXDR Whale Options NXDR Profit Sankey NXDR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NXDR — Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 47/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.23 (-0.45% 1D, market capitalization $866.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.4%, gross margin of 84.1%, operating margin of -27.9%, and free cash flow yield of 0.66%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 8.04, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, within the Computer Software: Programming Data Processing industry. Per the market data, gross margin is 84.1%, operating margin is -27.9%, and net margin is -21%. Per the news wire, the company's ad tool is described as enabling targeting of neighborhoods within covered ZIP codes.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) reported $257.6M in annual revenue (up from $247.3M in FY2024, +4.2% YoY) and -$54.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($218.3M revenue, $147.8M net income) through FY2025, NXDR scaled operating cash flow to $6.5M and free cash flow to $5.9M, backed by $486.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 47/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 0.66% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.19 – $2.65 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -27.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (Technology), NXDR carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 84.1%.

  • Key Question #1: Can NXDR sustain or expand its -27.9% operating margin and -15.4% ROIC against Computer Software: Programming Data Processing peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $257.6M and free cash flow of $5.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NXDR's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NXDR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NXDR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NXDR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NXDR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NXDR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.83 (+26.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 8.04, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and positive FY 2025 free cash flow of $5.9M on reven

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 8.04, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and positive FY 2025 free cash flow of $5.9M on revenue growth from $247.3M to $257.6M.. When you look under the hood at NXDR, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 84.1% gross margins and -15.4% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (4/20) has been quietly accumulating below $2.65. My 12M target is $2.83.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 47/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.23 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.07.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.85 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $2.23

Negative ROIC of -15.4% and operating margin of -27.9% with a Roarable Sell verdict and a news wire item reporting removal from listing

Negative ROIC of -15.4% and operating margin of -27.9% with a Roarable Sell verdict and a news wire item reporting removal from listing and/or registration.. Look at the math on NXDR: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -15.4% ROIC and -27.9% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Computer Software: Programming Data Processing demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $1.96 before getting long.

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