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Stock Ratings / Health Care / NXGL / earnings
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NexGel Inc (NXGL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$3.79 +7.98% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.84

NexGel Inc (NXGL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NXGL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NXGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, NexGel Inc (NASDAQ: NXGL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $3.79 (+7.98% 1D, market cap $1.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NXGL ranks #876 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NXGL compare to IVF and BJDX in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), NXGL carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 39.5%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IVF (INVO Fertility Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.1M) and BJDX (Bluejay Diagnostics Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NXGL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NXGL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXGL?
▼

Per NXGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001468929), NexGel Inc generated $11.4M in revenue (+31.5% YoY), -$3.0M in net income, and -$1.4M in free cash flow against $10.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.84 (+1.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target
$56 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE NXGL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXGL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NXGL SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$5.46-3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$5.28-23.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$4.03-6% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$3.79-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXGL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NXGL currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.94) and Max Pain ($3.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $56.28.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXGL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NXGL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.47 Expected Swing
$3.32 (-12.5%)Spot $3.79$4.26 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NXGL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 28/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 31.5%

Model Bullish Setup (28/100)Model Risk Weight (72/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$11.4M-$3.0M-$1.4M39.5%
FY 20242024-12-31$8.7M-$3.3M-$4.3M31.6%
FY 20232023-12-31$4.1M-$3.2M-$3.2M39.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXGL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NXGL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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NXGL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -67.94%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $3.51H $3.79L $3.51C $3.79VOL 18.3K
RES: $8.98SUP: $0.29SMA50: $4.94SMA200: $12.09
$36.82$27.66$18.49$9.32$0.16RES $8.98SUP $0.29$3.792026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXGL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NXGL Butterfly Map → + Track NXGL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXGL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXGL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXGL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXGL)

Health Care Rank #876 of 1015 ⚔️ IVF vs NXGL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NXGL vs. IVF, BJDX, VJET, ICCM)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NexGel Inc (NXGL) ranks #876 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #996 by equity capitalization ($1.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NXGL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NXGL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and 39.5% gross margin. BJDX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 38/100 (D-) compared with NXGL at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NXGL ACTIVE
NexGel Inc
E 28/100 — 39.5% -35.0% +7.98% $1.8M Benchmark Subject
IVF
INVO Fertility Inc.
D- 35/100 — 96.0% -35.0% -4.19% $2.1M /ivf-vs-nxgl →
BJDX
Bluejay Diagnostics Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -4.74% $2.4M /bjdx-vs-nxgl →
VJET
Flyte Aviation Inc.
E 30/100 — 92.3% -35.0% +0.17% $1.2M /vjet-vs-nxgl →
ICCM
IceCure Medical Ltd.
E 33/100 — 36.3% -35.0% -3.14% $2.9M /iccm-vs-nxgl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001468929 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NexGel Inc (NXGL) reported GAAP revenue of $11.4M (+31.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.7M , and +179.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$3.0M, operating cash flow of -$1.3M, and free cash flow of -$1.4M (+68.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXGL closed FY2025 with $10.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $11.4M -$3.0M -$1.3M -$1.4M $10.5M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $8.7M -$3.3M -$3.9M -$4.3M $11.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.1M -$3.2M -$3.2M -$3.2M — —

3. NXGL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXGL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, NexGel Inc (NASDAQ: NXGL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $3.79 (+7.98% 1D, market cap $1.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NXGL ranks #876 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NXGL compare to IVF and BJDX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), NXGL carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 39.5%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IVF (INVO Fertility Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.1M) and BJDX (Bluejay Diagnostics Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NXGL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NXGL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXGL?

Per NXGL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001468929), NexGel Inc generated $11.4M in revenue (+31.5% YoY), -$3.0M in net income, and -$1.4M in free cash flow against $10.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NXGL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXGL last traded at $3.79 (+7.98% on volume of 18,287 shares), positioning the stock -23.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.94) and -68.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.09). Across its 52-week range of $3.00 to $53.60, NXGL sits at the 1.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.32 to $4.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: NXGL RQD Cockpit NXGL 12M Forecast NXGL Earnings & Move NXGL Dividends & DRIP NXGL Insiders & 13F NXGL Whale Options NXGL Profit Sankey NXGL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NXGL — NexGel Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

NexGel Inc (NXGL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.79 (+7.98% 1D, market capitalization $1.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 39.5%, operating margin of -29.3%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

NexGel Inc (NXGL) is a NASDAQ-listed Health Care issuer operating in the Medical/Dental Instruments industry. Products, customers, and revenue model details are — The source data reports FY 2025 revenue of $11.4M, indicating an operating business, though its composition is not described.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), NexGel Inc (NXGL) reported $11.4M in annual revenue (up from $8.7M in FY2024, +31.5% YoY) and -$3.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.1M revenue, -$3.2M net income) through FY2025, NXGL scaled operating cash flow to -$1.3M and free cash flow to -$1.4M, backed by $10.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.00 – $53.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -29.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond the Health Care sector classification are — Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided data.

  • Key Question #1: Can NXGL sustain or expand its -29.3% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Medical/Dental Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $11.4M and free cash flow of -$1.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NXGL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NXGL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NexGel Inc (NXGL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NXGL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NXGL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NXGL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NXGL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.07 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue more than doubled from $4.1M in FY 2023 to $11.4M in FY 2025 while the stock regained Nasdaq compliance.

Picked up a starter position in NXGL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $3.51. Revenue more than doubled from $4.1M in FY 2023 to $11.4M in FY 2025 while the stock regained Nasdaq compliance.. Trading inside a $3.00–$53.60 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Medical/Dental Instruments multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Medical/Dental Instruments. If gross margin (39.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.74 (-21.9%)
Spot @ $3.51

A -35% ROIC, 0.2 Altman Z-Score, and 0% FCF yield indicate weak returns and elevated distress risk.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NXGL: A -35% ROIC, 0.2 Altman Z-Score, and 0% FCF yield indicate weak returns and elevated distress risk.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Medical/Dental Instruments triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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