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RMTI (23) PMN (35) AARD (33) FLNA (38) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

NextCure Inc. (NXTC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$5.70 -9.75% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.59

NextCure Inc. (NXTC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $28.9M
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NXTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, NextCure Inc. (NASDAQ: NXTC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $5.70 (-9.75% 1D, market cap $28.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NXTC ranks #544 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NXTC compare to RMTI and PMN in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NXTC carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, RMTI (Rockwell Medical Inc.) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $28.5M) and PMN (ProMIS Neurosciences Inc. (ON)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $29.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NXTC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while RMTI leads on capital efficiency (-10.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXTC?
β–Ό

Per NXTC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001661059), NextCure Inc. generated $161.3M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), -$55.8M in net income, and -$49.6M in free cash flow against $50.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.59 (-1.94%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510037
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (7)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.5% Base Target
$17 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NXTC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXTC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NXTC SCORES 37/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 2/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 29% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$6.28-13.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$5.44+5.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$5.72-0.3% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$5.70-8.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (45) β†’ D- (37)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXTC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While NXTC currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.11) and Max Pain ($5.99) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.53.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXTCβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNXTC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How NXTC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$161.3MGross Profit $83.9M (52%)Cost of Sales $77.4MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $83.9MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $189.4M
FY24
Rev $167.3M
FY25
Rev $161.3M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$161.3M52%-35.7%-$55.8M-$49.6M-45%
FY 2024$167.3M52%-35.7%-$55.7M-$41.3M-45%
FY 2023$189.4M52%-35.7%-$62.7M-$53.0M-35%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXTC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of NXTC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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NXTC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.10%πŸ“ WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-03O $6.52H $6.52L $5.70C $5.70VOL 19.2K
RES: $7.35SUP: $4.60SMA50: $6.11SMA200: $7.78
$12.06$9.21$6.36$3.51$0.67RES $7.35SUP $4.60$5.702026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXTC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ NXTC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track NXTC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXTC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXTC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXTC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXTC)

Health Care Rank #544 of 1015 βš”οΈ RMTI vs NXTC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NXTC vs. RMTI, PMN, AARD, FLNA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NextCure Inc. (NXTC) ranks #544 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #803 by equity capitalization ($28.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NXTC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while RMTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -10.6% ROIC and 16.9% gross margin. FLNA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 38/100 (D-) compared with NXTC at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NXTC ACTIVE
NextCure Inc.
D- 37/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -9.75% $28.9M Benchmark Subject
RMTI
Rockwell Medical Inc.
E 23/100 β€” 16.9% -10.6% -2.26% $28.5M /rmti-vs-nxtc β†’
PMN
ProMIS Neurosciences Inc. (ON)
D- 35/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -9.37% $29.7M /pmn-vs-nxtc β†’
AARD
Aardvark Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -11.76% $29.8M /aard-vs-nxtc β†’
FLNA
Filana Therapeutics Inc.
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -9.81% $30.0M /flna-vs-nxtc β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001661059 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NextCure Inc. (NXTC) reported GAAP revenue of $161.3M (-3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $167.3M , and -14.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$55.8M, operating cash flow of -$49.6M, and free cash flow of -$49.6M (-20.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXTC closed FY2025 with $50.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $161.3M -$55.8M -$49.6M -$49.6M $50.2M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $167.3M -$55.7M -$40.8M -$41.3M $80.9M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $189.4M -$62.7M -$53.0M -$53.0M β€” β€”

3. NXTC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXTC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, NextCure Inc. (NASDAQ: NXTC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $5.70 (-9.75% 1D, market cap $28.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NXTC ranks #544 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NXTC compare to RMTI and PMN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NXTC carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, RMTI (Rockwell Medical Inc.) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.6%, cap $28.5M) and PMN (ProMIS Neurosciences Inc. (ON)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $29.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NXTC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while RMTI leads on capital efficiency (-10.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXTC?

Per NXTC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001661059), NextCure Inc. generated $161.3M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), -$55.8M in net income, and -$49.6M in free cash flow against $50.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NXTC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXTC last traded at $5.70 (-9.75% on volume of 64,067 shares), positioning the stock -6.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.11) and -26.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.78). Across its 52-week range of $1.55 to $15.74, NXTC sits at the 29.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($4.99 to $6.41).

Direct Sub-Reports: NXTC RQD Cockpit NXTC 12M Forecast NXTC Earnings & Move NXTC Dividends & DRIP NXTC Insiders & 13F NXTC Whale Options NXTC Profit Sankey NXTC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 37/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NXTC β€” NextCure Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

NextCure Inc. (NXTC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.70 (-9.75% 1D, market capitalization $28.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

NextCure Inc. (NXTC) is listed on NASDAQ and operates in the Health Care sector, specifically in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Reported revenue across the listed periods is β€”, . Market capitalization is $29.9M, per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), NextCure Inc. (NXTC) reported $161.3M in annual revenue (up from $167.3M in FY2024, -3.6% YoY) and -$55.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($189.4M revenue, -$62.7M net income) through FY2025, NXTC scaled operating cash flow to -$49.6M and free cash flow to -$49.6M, backed by $50.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.55 – $15.74 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations beyond the beta of 1.

  • Key Question #1: Can NXTC sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $161.3M and free cash flow of -$49.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NXTC's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NXTC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NextCure Inc. (NXTC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NXTC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NXTC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $5.70?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NXTC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NXTC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Long-Only πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.14 (+29.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

ADAR1 Capital Management insider-linked purchases appear in the news feed while the stock trades near the low end of its 52-week range.

The street is overcomplicating NextCure Inc. (NXTC). ADAR1 Capital Management insider-linked purchases appear in the news feed while the stock trades near the low end of its 52-week range.. With an RQD score of 37/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $6.81.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” NXTC's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.17 (-18.1%)
Spot @ $6.31

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and operating losses across three reported years leave the company without cash-generation support.

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and operating losses across three reported years leave the company without cash-generation support.. Look at the math on NXTC: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $5.55 before getting long.

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