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Stock Ratings / Financials / OBT / earnings
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Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.5% Move

$39.52 -1.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.34

Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $537.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OBT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $39.52 (-1.47% 1D, market cap $537.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OBT ranks #142 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OBT compare to COFS and WTBA in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OBT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.6%. By comparison, COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $542.9M) and WTBA (West Bancorporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $527.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while NPB leads on capital efficiency (14.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBT?
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Per OBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754226), Orange County Bancorp Inc. generated $1.12B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $41.6M in net income, and $41.3M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.34 (-0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 3.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$49 Bull$41 Base$32 Bear
📬 FREE OBT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OBT SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.7% FCF Margin ($41.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (70.6) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$36.34+2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$37.32+2.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$38.10+3.7% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$39.52+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OBT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, OBT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.84) or 200D SMA ($35.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.48) toward Bear Floor ($32.35).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OBT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.5% Swing Band

±$2.17 Expected Swing
$37.35 (-5.5%)Spot $39.52$41.69 (+5.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

OBT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 69/100

Trailing EPS: $3.10 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (69/100)Model Risk Weight (31/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.12B$41.6M$41.3M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.05B$27.9M$32.9M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$169.1M$29.5M$44.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating OBT & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on OBT
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OBT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.76%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-04O $38.69H $40.11L $38.69C $39.52VOL 74.7K
RES: $40.53SUP: $36.83SMA50: $37.84SMA200: $35.60
$41.31$37.92$34.54$31.15$27.77RES $40.53SUP $36.83$39.522026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OBT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OBT Butterfly Map → + Track OBT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBT)

Financials Rank #142 of 1097 ⚔️ COFS vs OBT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OBT vs. COFS, WTBA, NPB, BSRR)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) ranks #142 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #686 by equity capitalization ($537.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPB leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while NPB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.7% ROIC and — gross margin. WTBA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with OBT at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OBT ACTIVE
Orange County Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 12.4x — 14.6% -1.47% $537.8M Benchmark Subject
COFS
ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.
C 64/100 18.6x — 6.1% -0.14% $542.9M /cofs-vs-obt →
WTBA
West Bancorporation
B- 71/100 15.7x — 12.2% -1.36% $527.7M /wtba-vs-obt →
NPB
Northpointe Bancshares Inc.
D+ 58/100 6.7x — 14.7% -0.88% $549.5M /npb-vs-obt →
BSRR
Sierra Bancorp
C 64/100 13.0x — 11.6% -1.52% $553.1M /bsrr-vs-obt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754226 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.12B (+6.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.05B , and +560.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $41.6M, operating cash flow of $43.8M, and free cash flow of $41.3M (+25.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, OBT closed FY2025 with $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.12B $41.6M $43.8M $41.3M $2.66B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.05B $27.9M $34.6M $32.9M $2.51B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $169.1M $29.5M $44.5M $44.5M — —

3. OBT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $39.52 (-1.47% 1D, market cap $537.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OBT ranks #142 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OBT compare to COFS and WTBA in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OBT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.6%. By comparison, COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $542.9M) and WTBA (West Bancorporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $527.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while NPB leads on capital efficiency (14.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBT?

Per OBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754226), Orange County Bancorp Inc. generated $1.12B in revenue (+6.0% YoY), $41.6M in net income, and $41.3M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OBT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBT last traded at $39.52 (-1.47% on volume of 50,176 shares), positioning the stock +4.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.84) and +11.01% above its 200-day simple moving average ($35.60). Across its 52-week range of $24.62 to $40.49, OBT sits at the 93.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 70.6 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($37.35 to $41.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: OBT RQD Cockpit OBT 12M Forecast OBT Earnings & Move OBT Dividends & DRIP OBT Insiders & 13F OBT Whale Options OBT Profit Sankey OBT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OBT — Orange County Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $39.52 (-1.47% 1D, market capitalization $537.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.99%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector and Major Banks industry. The profile identifies the company as operating in Major Banks with a market capitalization of $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) reported $1.12B in annual revenue (up from $1.05B in FY2024, +6.0% YoY) and $41.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($169.1M revenue, $29.5M net income) through FY2025, OBT scaled operating cash flow to $43.8M and free cash flow to $41.3M, backed by $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.99% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $24.62 – $40.49 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the Financials/Major Banks classification, and second-order bottlenecks are — The only sector-level context is the beta of 1.0 per the market data, which indicates the stock has moved in line with the broader market over the measurement period, and the Macro Regime Fit pillar of 13/20 per the RQD rating, which reflects moderate sector sensitivity.

  • Key Question #1: Can OBT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 14.6% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.12B and free cash flow of $41.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OBT's 11.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OBT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OBT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OBT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $39.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OBT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OBT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $48.75 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 17/20, the strongest RQD pillar, alongside a 14.6% ROIC and a 7.99% FCF yield.

Long OBT at $38.69 targeting $48.75. Insider Conviction scores 17/20, the strongest RQD pillar, alongside a 14.6% ROIC and a 7.99% FCF yield.. Institutional whale score is 13/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $24.50 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 69/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $38.69 and keeping dry powder in case we test $35.98.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.11 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $38.69

The stock trades near the top of its $23.75 - $40.49 52-week range with a Piotroski F of only 5/9 and no analyst coverage.

Fading this rally in OBT at $38.69. The stock trades near the top of its $23.75 - $40.49 52-week range with a Piotroski F of only 5/9 and no analyst coverage.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $38.69 (52-wk range $24.50–$40.49), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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