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Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$12.41 +2.22% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.44

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.07B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OCSL Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OCSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (NASDAQ: OCSL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $12.41 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $1.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OCSL ranks #425 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OCSL compare to WD and RHLD in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), OCSL carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.5x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, WD (Walker & Dunlop Inc) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 21.2x, ROIC 3.2%, cap $1.19B) and RHLD (Resolute Holdings Management) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $944.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WD leads on earnings multiple (21.2x) while RHLD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OCSL?
β–Ό

Per OCSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001414932), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation generated $1.30B in revenue (+0.5% YoY), $33.9M in net income, and $228.4M in free cash flow against $3.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.44 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) β€’ 17.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510059
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$15 Bull$12 Base$10 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE OCSL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OCSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY OCSL SCORES 59/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.6% FCF Margin ($228.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$11.58-2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$11.31+3.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$11.66+6.4% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$12.41+0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (51) β†’ C- (59)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OCSL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, OCSL faces multiple-compression risk if 31.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.19) or 200D SMA ($12.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.47) toward Bear Floor ($9.73).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OCSLβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œOCSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±4.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (OCSL)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for OCSL.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating OCSL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on OCSL
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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OCSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.80%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.13H $12.41L $12.13C $12.41VOL 439.1K
RES: $14.26SUP: $11.13SMA50: $12.19SMA200: $12.07
$13.48$12.86$12.24$11.62$11.00RES $14.26SUP $11.13$12.412026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OCSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ OCSL Butterfly Map β†’ + Track OCSL β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OCSL today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OCSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OCSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OCSL)

Financials Rank #425 of 1097 βš”οΈ WD vs OCSL Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OCSL vs. WD, RHLD, SECZ, PICS)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) ranks #425 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #533 by equity capitalization ($1.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WD leads on earnings valuation at 21.2x trailing P/E, while RHLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and β€” gross margin. OCSL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OCSL ACTIVE
Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation
C- 59/100 31.5x β€” 2.4% +2.22% $1.07B Benchmark Subject
WD
Walker & Dunlop Inc
D- 36/100 21.2x β€” 3.2% +2.79% $1.19B /wd-vs-ocsl β†’
RHLD
Resolute Holdings Management
C- 59/100 β€” β€” 85.0% -1.50% $944.3M /rhld-vs-ocsl β†’
SECZ
Securitize Corp.
D- 43/100 β€” β€” β€” -4.23% $1.23B /secz-vs-ocsl β†’
PICS
PicS N.V. (Class A)
D- 43/100 β€” β€” β€” -4.37% $920.1M /pics-vs-ocsl β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-09-30 β€’ CIK 0001414932 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.30B (+0.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.30B , and +49.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $33.9M, operating cash flow of $228.4M, and free cash flow of $228.4M (+1097.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OCSL closed FY2025 with $3.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.30B $33.9M $228.4M $228.4M $3.10B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.30B $57.9M $19.1M $19.1M $3.08B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $869.3M $117.3M $228.8M $228.8M β€” β€”

3. OCSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OCSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (NASDAQ: OCSL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $12.41 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $1.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OCSL ranks #425 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OCSL compare to WD and RHLD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), OCSL carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.5x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, WD (Walker & Dunlop Inc) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 21.2x, ROIC 3.2%, cap $1.19B) and RHLD (Resolute Holdings Management) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $944.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WD leads on earnings multiple (21.2x) while RHLD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OCSL?

Per OCSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001414932), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation generated $1.30B in revenue (+0.5% YoY), $33.9M in net income, and $228.4M in free cash flow against $3.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OCSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OCSL last traded at $12.41 (+2.22% on volume of 531,674 shares), positioning the stock +1.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.19) and +2.82% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.07). Across its 52-week range of $10.63 to $13.94, OCSL sits at the 53.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.5% ($11.85 to $12.97).

Direct Sub-Reports: OCSL RQD Cockpit OCSL 12M Forecast OCSL Earnings & Move OCSL Dividends & DRIP OCSL Insiders & 13F OCSL Whale Options OCSL Profit Sankey OCSL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 59/100 (C-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OCSL β€” Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $12.41 (+2.22% 1D, market capitalization $1.07B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.4%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 21.37%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry,. β€” for detailed business description.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) reported $1.30B in annual revenue (up from $1.30B in FY2024, +0.5% YoY) and $33.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($869.3M revenue, $117.3M net income) through FY2025, OCSL scaled operating cash flow to $228.4M and free cash flow to $228.4M, backed by $3.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C- β€’ RQD 59/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 21.37% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.63 – $13.94 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 31.5x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Within the provided data, the only sector linkage is the classification of Financials and Finance: Consumer Services.

  • Key Question #1: Can OCSL sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 2.4% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.30B and free cash flow of $228.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OCSL's 29.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OCSL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to OCSL Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OCSL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $12.41?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OCSL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OCSL:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Growth & Tech Investor πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.20 (+17.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

A 21.37% FCF yield and a 2.5 Altman Z-Score with 0.5 Debt/Equity point to a cash-generative, moderately leveraged balance sheet.

The street is overcomplicating Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL). A 21.37% FCF yield and a 2.5 Altman Z-Score with 0.5 Debt/Equity point to a cash-generative, moderately leveraged balance sheet.. With an RQD score of 59/100 (C-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $13.11.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” OCSL's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.83 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $12.14

Net income fell from $117.3M to $33.9M over FY 2023 to FY 2025 while ROIC sits at 2.4% and the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 10/20.

I respect the product at Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation, but the stock at $12.14 is a different story. Net income fell from $117.3M to $33.9M over FY 2023 to FY 2025 while ROIC sits at 2.4% and the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores only 10/20.. FCF yield is 21.37% and RQD sits at 59/100 (C-) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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