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Why OFRM Stock dropped -5.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$15.02 -5.95% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.83

Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $630.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OFRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Once Upon a Farm PBC (NYSE: OFRM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $15.02 (-5.95% 1D, market cap $630.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, OFRM ranks #101 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OFRM compare to SMPL and BRBR in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), OFRM carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SMPL (The Simply Good Foods Company) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $977.2M) and BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OFRM?
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Per OFRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001696556), Once Upon a Farm PBC generated $48.9M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $116.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.83 (-1.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 36.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510042
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$28 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
📬 FREE OFRM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OFRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OFRM SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.1% FCF Margin ($17.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$16.38+5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$17.20-6.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$16.08-6.6% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$15.02-7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OFRM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OFRM currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.53) and Max Pain ($15.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.35.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OFRM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OFRM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why OFRM Stock dropped -5.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) dropped -5.95% to $15.02, trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($14 – $27). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 8% of its 52-week range ($14 – $27) with RSI-14 at 39.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.9% around $15.02 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $17.7M annual free cash flow.
Live OFRM Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OFRM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of OFRM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OFRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.97%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $15.97H $15.97L $15.02C $15.02VOL 385.0K
RES: $17.91SUP: $15.01SMA50: $16.53SMA200: $17.47
$23.63$21.02$18.41$15.80$13.19RES $17.91SUP $15.01$15.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OFRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OFRM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OFRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OFRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OFRM)

Consumer Staples Rank #101 of 147 ⚔️ SMPL vs OFRM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (OFRM vs. SMPL, BRBR, VITL, SENEB)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) ranks #101 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #81 by equity capitalization ($630.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRBR leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while BRBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.3% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. BRBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with OFRM at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OFRM ACTIVE
Once Upon a Farm PBC
D- 42/100 — — — -5.95% $630.7M Benchmark Subject
SMPL
The Simply Good Foods Company
C 64/100 8.9x 36.2% 6.4% +5.54% $977.2M /smpl-vs-ofrm →
BRBR
BellRing Brands Inc.
B 74/100 4.9x 33.3% 46.3% +1.21% $1.07B /brbr-vs-ofrm →
VITL
Vital Farms Inc.
D- 43/100 6.0x 37.6% 23.1% -6.67% $372.2M /vitl-vs-ofrm →
SENEB
Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B)
D+ 53/100 9.4x — 16.1% 0.00% $1.08B /seneb-vs-ofrm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001696556 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) reported GAAP revenue of $48.9M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, OFRM closed FY2025 with $116.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $48.9M $0 — — $116.4M —

3. OFRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OFRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Once Upon a Farm PBC (NYSE: OFRM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $15.02 (-5.95% 1D, market cap $630.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, OFRM ranks #101 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OFRM compare to SMPL and BRBR in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), OFRM carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SMPL (The Simply Good Foods Company) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $977.2M) and BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OFRM?

Per OFRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001696556), Once Upon a Farm PBC generated $48.9M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $116.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OFRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OFRM last traded at $15.02 (-5.95% on volume of 384,989 shares), positioning the stock -9.13% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.53) and -14.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.47). Across its 52-week range of $14.00 to $27.00, OFRM sits at the 7.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.9% ($13.53 to $16.51).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OFRM — Once Upon a Farm PBC: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $15.02 (-5.95% 1D, market capitalization $630.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) is listed on the NYSE and classified under the Consumer Staples sector and the Packaged Foods industry. The profile describes it as a Consumer Staples issuer with a market capitalization of $0.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) reported $48.9M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $116.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.00 – $27.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for OFRM. An investor should treat supplier concentration, co-manufacturer dependence, and product-recall exposure as open questions, since the recall item in the news section is the only documented operational event and its supply-chain ripple effects are not mapped.

  • Key Question #1: Can OFRM sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Packaged Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $48.9M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OFRM's equity valuation to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OFRM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Once Upon a Farm PBC (OFRM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OFRM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OFRM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OFRM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OFRM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.32 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance-sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, and cash of $10.9M is reported.

Picked up a starter position in OFRM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $15.02. Balance-sheet pillar scores 13/20 with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, and cash of $10.9M is reported.. Trading inside a $14.00–$27.00 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Packaged Foods multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — OFRM's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.77 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $15.02

ROIC 0% and FCF yield 0% drive the cash-engine pillar to 10/20, with all reported margins at 0% and a red-flag recall item in the news.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on OFRM: ROIC 0% and FCF yield 0% drive the cash-engine pillar to 10/20, with all reported margins at 0% and a red-flag recall item in the news.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Packaged Foods triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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