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Stock Ratings / Financials / ONB / news
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Why ONB Stock surged +2.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$25.77 +2.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.85

Old National Bancorp (ONB) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $9.49B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ONB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $25.77 (+2.71% 1D, market cap $9.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ONB ranks #232 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONB compare to ZION and CFR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ONB carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.9%. By comparison, ZION (Zions Bancorporation N.A.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 2.8%, cap $9.54B) and CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $9.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZION leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONB?
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Per ONB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000707179), Old National Bancorp generated $2.21B in revenue (+24.1% YoY), $669.3M in net income, and $637.4M in free cash flow against $72.15B in total assets and $28.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.85 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 28.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (11)Whales (11)SEC (15)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$31 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE ONB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONB SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$24.51+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$24.59+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$24.73+4.2% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$25.77+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ONB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, ONB faces multiple-compression risk if 14.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.18) or 200D SMA ($24.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($26.58) toward Bear Floor ($20.73).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ONB Stock surged +2.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Old National Bancorp (ONB) surged +2.71% to $25.77, trading at 80% of its 52-week range ($19.6 – $27.36). Solid steady margins (2% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 80% of its 52-week range ($19.6 – $27.36) with RSI-14 at 50.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.3% around $25.77 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 0% gross margin and $637.4M annual free cash flow.
Live ONB Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ONB Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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ONB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $25.23H $25.77L $25.09C $25.77VOL 3.92M
RES: $28.58SUP: $23.24SMA50: $25.18SMA200: $24.65
$27.71$26.28$24.85$23.42$21.99RES $28.58SUP $23.24$25.772026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ONB Butterfly Map → + Track ONB →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +24.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONB)

Financials Rank #232 of 1097 ⚔️ ZION vs ONB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ONB vs. ZION, CFR, BPOP, SSB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old National Bancorp (ONB) ranks #232 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #195 by equity capitalization ($9.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZION leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while CFR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and — gross margin. BPOP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with ONB at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONB ACTIVE
Old National Bancorp
C 65/100 14.3x — 1.9% +2.71% $9.49B Benchmark Subject
ZION
Zions Bancorporation N.A.
C 64/100 10.8x — 2.8% +1.55% $9.54B /zion-vs-onb →
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
C- 60/100 15.1x — 3.4% +1.71% $9.80B /cfr-vs-onb →
BPOP
Popular Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.1x — 3.1% +1.50% $9.99B /bpop-vs-onb →
SSB
SouthState Bank Corporation
C- 60/100 12.9x — 3.0% +1.75% $10.20B /ssb-vs-onb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000707179 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old National Bancorp (ONB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.21B (+24.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.78B , and +15.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $669.3M, operating cash flow of $681.5M, and free cash flow of $637.4M (+7.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONB closed FY2025 with $72.15B in total assets against $28.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.21B $669.3M $681.5M $637.4M $72.15B $28.65B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.78B $539.2M $622.3M $592.0M $53.55B $21.25B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.92B $582.0M $516.3M $516.3M $5.25B $1.23B

3. ONB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $25.77 (+2.71% 1D, market cap $9.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ONB ranks #232 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONB compare to ZION and CFR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ONB carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.9%. By comparison, ZION (Zions Bancorporation N.A.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 2.8%, cap $9.54B) and CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $9.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZION leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONB?

Per ONB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000707179), Old National Bancorp generated $2.21B in revenue (+24.1% YoY), $669.3M in net income, and $637.4M in free cash flow against $72.15B in total assets and $28.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONB last traded at $25.77 (+2.71% on volume of 4,701,495 shares), positioning the stock +2.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($25.18) and +4.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.65). Across its 52-week range of $19.60 to $27.36, ONB sits at the 79.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($24.66 to $26.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: ONB RQD Cockpit ONB 12M Forecast ONB Earnings & Move ONB Dividends & DRIP ONB Insiders & 13F ONB Whale Options ONB Profit Sankey ONB News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ONB — Old National Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Old National Bancorp (ONB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $25.77 (+2.71% 1D, market capitalization $9.49B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 30.6%, and free cash flow yield of 6.68%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.97x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ONB is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. Revenue is reported as — across all periods in the financials, which the source does not explain.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Old National Bancorp (ONB) reported $2.21B in annual revenue (up from $1.78B in FY2024, +24.1% YoY) and $669.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.92B revenue, $582.0M net income) through FY2025, ONB scaled operating cash flow to $681.5M and free cash flow to $637.4M, backed by $72.15B in total assets against $28.65B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 65/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.60 – $27.36 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.3x trailing P/E and 40.3x EV/EBITDA against 30.6% operating margins and a 0.97x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no bottlenecks. Investors should note that the source does not establish how ONB's sector peers or macro factors transmit to its results.

  • Key Question #1: Can ONB sustain or expand its 30.6% operating margin and 1.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.21B and free cash flow of $637.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $28.65B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ONB's 13.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.97x)?

ONB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Old National Bancorp (ONB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.77?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $30.36 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 13.3 forward P/E give the stock a sound financia

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 13.3 forward P/E give the stock a sound financial base and modest valuation.. When you look under the hood at ONB, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 1.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $27.36. My 12M target is $30.36.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 14.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.58 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $25.09

ROIC of 1.9% paired with an EV/EBITDA of 40.3 signals weak capital returns against an elevated enterprise valuation, with a RED-flagged

ROIC of 1.9% paired with an EV/EBITDA of 40.3 signals weak capital returns against an elevated enterprise valuation, with a RED-flagged analyst target trim already in the news feed.. Look at the math on ONB: paying 14.3x trailing P/E for 1.9% ROIC and 30.6% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Major Banks demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $22.08 before getting long.

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