ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / ONL / earnings
NLOP (30) EARN (50) SEVN (48) RC (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.2% Move

$2.44 +2.95% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.45

Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $135.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ONL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Orion Properties Inc. (NYSE: ONL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.44 (+2.95% 1D, market cap $135.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ONL ranks #876 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONL compare to NLOP and EARN in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ONL carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $132.7M) and EARN (Ellington Credit Company of) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $130.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while SEVN leads on capital efficiency (4.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONL?
▼

Per ONL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001873923), Orion Properties Inc. generated $491.6M in revenue (-12.4% YoY), -$139.3M in net income, and $23.6M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.45 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 4.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (7)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.6% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE ONL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONL SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$2.10-2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$2.04+22.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$2.50-2.4% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$2.44-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ONL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ONL currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.43) and Max Pain ($2.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.2% Swing Band

±$0.25 Expected Swing
$2.19 (-10.2%)Spot $2.44$2.69 (+10.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ONL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 43/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (43/100)Model Risk Weight (57/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$491.6M-$139.3M$23.6M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$561.3M-$103.0M$54.3M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$338.5M-$57.3M$89.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ONL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ONL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.98%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $2.32H $2.44L $2.32C $2.44VOL 640.4K
RES: $3.06SUP: $1.84SMA50: $2.43SMA200: $2.56
$3.13$2.81$2.49$2.17$1.85RES $3.06SUP $1.84$2.442026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ONL Butterfly Map → + Track ONL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -12.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONL)

Financials Rank #876 of 1097 ⚔️ NLOP vs ONL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ONL vs. NLOP, EARN, SEVN, RC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) ranks #876 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #934 by equity capitalization ($135.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEVN leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while SEVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.7% ROIC and — gross margin. EARN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with ONL at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONL ACTIVE
Orion Properties Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -22.4% +2.95% $135.2M Benchmark Subject
NLOP
Net Lease Office Properties of
E 30/100 — — -35.0% -0.78% $132.7M /nlop-vs-onl →
EARN
Ellington Credit Company of
D 50/100 20.8x — 3.4% -4.31% $130.7M /earn-vs-onl →
SEVN
Seven Hills Realty Trust
D 48/100 9.8x — 4.7% +1.07% $149.5M /sevn-vs-onl →
RC
Ready Capital Corporation
D- 41/100 — — -14.3% 0.00% $176.8M /rc-vs-onl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001873923 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) reported GAAP revenue of $491.6M (-12.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $561.3M , and +45.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$139.3M, operating cash flow of $23.6M, and free cash flow of $23.6M (-56.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONL closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $491.6M -$139.3M $23.6M $23.6M $1.17B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $561.3M -$103.0M $54.3M $54.3M $1.34B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $338.5M -$57.3M $89.1M $89.1M — —

3. ONL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Orion Properties Inc. (NYSE: ONL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.44 (+2.95% 1D, market cap $135.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ONL ranks #876 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONL compare to NLOP and EARN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ONL carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $132.7M) and EARN (Ellington Credit Company of) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $130.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while SEVN leads on capital efficiency (4.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONL?

Per ONL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001873923), Orion Properties Inc. generated $491.6M in revenue (-12.4% YoY), -$139.3M in net income, and $23.6M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONL last traded at $2.44 (+2.95% on volume of 339,595 shares), positioning the stock +0.41% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.43) and -4.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.56). Across its 52-week range of $1.89 to $3.05, ONL sits at the 47.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($2.19 to $2.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: ONL RQD Cockpit ONL 12M Forecast ONL Earnings & Move ONL Dividends & DRIP ONL Insiders & 13F ONL Whale Options ONL Profit Sankey ONL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ONL — Orion Properties Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.44 (+2.95% 1D, market capitalization $135.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -22.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 17.81%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry,..1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) reported $491.6M in annual revenue (up from $561.3M in FY2024, -12.4% YoY) and -$139.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($338.5M revenue, -$57.3M net income) through FY2025, ONL scaled operating cash flow to $23.6M and free cash flow to $23.6M, backed by $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 17.81% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.89 – $3.05 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links, no sector-correlation edges, and no proprietary signals in the source data. Sector context is limited to the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification.

  • Key Question #1: Can ONL sustain or expand its — operating margin and -22.4% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $491.6M and free cash flow of $23.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ONL's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ONL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.10 (+30.8%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 17.81% FCF yield and 6.78% dividend yield offer a high cash return relative to the $2.32 share price.

Don't sleep on ONL's setup in Financials. The 17.81% FCF yield and 6.78% dividend yield offer a high cash return relative to the $2.32 share price.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (43/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.94 (-18.1%)
Spot @ $2.37

Net income fell from -$57.3M in FY 2023 to -$139.3M in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -22.4%, with a Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ONL: Net income fell from -$57.3M in FY 2023 to -$139.3M in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -22.4%, with a Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE