CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
On Holding: Down 31%, But The Growth Story Is Far From OverWhy ONON Stock surged +5.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$35.52 +5.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.78
On Holding AG (Class A) (ONON) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $20.38B
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Is ONON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, On Holding AG (Class A) (NYSE: ONON) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $35.52 (+5.15% 1D, market cap $20.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ONON ranks #339 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ONON compare to DECK and NKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Shoe Manufacturing), ONON carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 11.0x, ROIC 73.9%, cap $10.94B) and NKE (Nike Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 18.4x, ROIC 21.2%, cap $57.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DECK leads on earnings multiple (11.0x) while DECK leads on capital efficiency (73.9% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONON?
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For On Holding AG (Class A) (ONON), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #339 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.78 (+0.74%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 11.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONON SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (20% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.5) create a -12 pt regime headwind
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$35.50-3.6% Next Q
51
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$34.22-6.7% Next Q
54
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$31.94+11.2% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade C-$35.52+0.2% Hist 90D α
59
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ONON Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, ONON faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($30.95) or 200D SMA ($36.43) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.68) toward Bear Floor ($27.83).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ONON Stock surged +5.15% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
On Holding AG (Class A) (ONON) surged +5.15% to $35.52, trading at 37% of its 52-week range ($26.36 – $51.08). Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 33x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 37% of its 52-week range ($26.36 – $51.08) with RSI-14 at 55.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7% around $35.52 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $450.5M annual free cash flow.
Live ONON Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) vs. ONON and NKE: Can UGG and HOKA Growth Drive a Major Re-Rating?Is DECK a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Deckers Outdoor Corporation on r/ValueInvesting by u/rain_maker15. Since the thesis was published on August 29th, DECK shares have pulled back as softer sal
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 5d ago
Shares of broader consumer discretionary stocks are trading higher. Softer-than-expected November CPI may be lifting broader market sentiment.RISK WATCHSeekingAlpha • 5d ago
Sell lululemon - I Expect A Long-Term Declinelululemon stock looks risky long-term with falling gross margins, rising short interest, and weak turnaround prospects. Learn more about LULU stock here.
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Monster Beverage vs. On Holding: Which Is the Better Growth Stock?Monster has almost zero debt, while On Holding trades at a fraction of the valuation.
RISK WATCHYahoo • 6d ago
Mbappé China Backlash Could Be A Game Changer For On Holding (ONON)On Holding is preparing to report third quarter 2026 results in early November, while managing reputational fallout after ambassador Kylian Mbappé lost Chinese sponsorships following political comments. The Mbappé contro
RISK WATCHYahoo • 6d ago
On Holding (ONON) Stock May Be Fully Priced As Shares Fell 31%On Holding shares have fallen 31.5% year to date, which puts fresh attention on whether the current price around US$32 is adequately supported by the earnings the business is generating. With the stock also facing a more
MARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
On Holding (ONON) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key FactsOn Holding (ONON) closed at $32.17 in the latest trading session, marking a -3.01% move from the prior day.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
On to Release Third Quarter 2026 Results on Tuesday, November 10, 2026ZURICH, October 27, 2026--On to Release Third Quarter 2026 Results on Tuesday, November 10, 2026
CATALYSTYahoo • 7d ago
Is the China risk real for On Holding after Mbappé backlash?Investing.com -- Is the backlash against soccer star Kylian Mbappé a real threat to On Holding AG’s (NYSE: ONON) growth in China, or is it too early to draw a link between the controversy and the Swiss sportswear brand’s
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ONON Tape Review)
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- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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ONON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.59%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $32.80H $35.52L $32.80C $35.52VOL 8.99M
RES: $36.05SUP: $24.33SMA50: $30.95SMA200: $36.43
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ONON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -1.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONON today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONON)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #339 of 1009
⚔️ DECK vs ONON Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ONON vs. DECK, NKE, CROX, BIRK)
Industry: Shoe Manufacturing (9 Tracked Issuers)Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, On Holding AG (Class A) (ONON) ranks #339 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #95 by equity capitalization ($20.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DECK leads on earnings valuation at 11.0x trailing P/E, while DECK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 73.9% ROIC and 57.7% gross margin. DECK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ONON at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONON
ACTIVE
On Holding AG (Class A) | C- | 59/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +5.15% | $20.38B | Benchmark Subject |
| DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | B | 75/100 | 11.0x | 57.7% | 73.9% | +3.67% | $10.94B | /deck-vs-onon → |
| NKE Nike Inc. | C- | 61/100 | 18.4x | 42.9% | 21.2% | +1.16% | $57.44B | /nke-vs-onon → |
| CROX Crocs Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | — | 58.3% | 4.9% | +1.73% | $6.88B | /crox-vs-onon → |
| BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc | D+ | 54/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +6.31% | $5.52B | /birk-vs-onon → |
2. ONON Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTOn Holding AG (Class A) (ONON) operates in Shoe Manufacturing (Consumer Discretionary) with an equity capitalization of $20.38B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
3. ONON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ONON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, On Holding AG (Class A) (NYSE: ONON) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $35.52 (+5.15% 1D, market cap $20.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ONON ranks #339 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ONON compare to DECK and NKE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Shoe Manufacturing), ONON carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 11.0x, ROIC 73.9%, cap $10.94B) and NKE (Nike Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 18.4x, ROIC 21.2%, cap $57.44B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DECK leads on earnings multiple (11.0x) while DECK leads on capital efficiency (73.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONON?
For On Holding AG (Class A) (ONON), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #339 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ONON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ONON last traded at $35.52 (+5.15% on volume of 10,325,493 shares), positioning the stock +14.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($30.95) and -2.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($36.43). Across its 52-week range of $26.36 to $51.08, ONON sits at the 37.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($33.03 to $38.01).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
ONON — On Holding AG (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
On Holding AG (Class A) (ONON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $35.52 (+5.15% 1D, market capitalization $20.38B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.04x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
ONON is listed on the NYSE and classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and Shoe Manufacturing industry,. The profile identifies On Holding AG Class A as the issuer.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $26.36 – $51.08 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 1.04x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Shoe Manufacturing (Consumer Discretionary), ONON carries a macro regime beta of 1.04 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can ONON sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Shoe Manufacturing peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 3.74) toward the $51.08 52-week high?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is ONON's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.04x)?
ONON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for On Holding AG (Class A) (ONON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 4d ago
On Holding: Down 31%, But The Growth Story Is Far From Over 🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 5d ago
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) vs. ONON and NKE: Can UGG and HOKA Growth Drive a Major Re-Rating? Is DECK a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Deckers Outdoor Corporation on r/ValueInvesting by u/rain_maker15. Since the thesis was published on August 29th, DECK shares have pulled back as softer sal
🔴 RISK WATCH SeekingAlpha • 5d ago
Sell lululemon - I Expect A Long-Term Decline lululemon stock looks risky long-term with falling gross margins, rising short interest, and weak turnaround prospects. Learn more about LULU stock here.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 5d ago
Monster Beverage vs. On Holding: Which Is the Better Growth Stock? Monster has almost zero debt, while On Holding trades at a fraction of the valuation.
🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 6d ago
Mbappé China Backlash Could Be A Game Changer For On Holding (ONON) On Holding is preparing to report third quarter 2026 results in early November, while managing reputational fallout after ambassador Kylian Mbappé lost Chinese sponsorships following political comments. The Mbappé contro
🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 6d ago
On Holding (ONON) Stock May Be Fully Priced As Shares Fell 31% On Holding shares have fallen 31.5% year to date, which puts fresh attention on whether the current price around US$32 is adequately supported by the earnings the business is generating. With the stock also facing a more
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 6d ago
On Holding (ONON) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts On Holding (ONON) closed at $32.17 in the latest trading session, marking a -3.01% move from the prior day.
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
ONON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $35.52?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $40.87 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z of 3.74, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39.
Forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z of 3.74, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39.. When you look under the hood at ONON, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (12/20) has been quietly accumulating below $51.08. My 12M target is $40.87.
CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL
@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 59/100 quality, though with 1.04 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $33.78 and keeping dry powder in case we test $31.42.
ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $25.34 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $33.78 Fundamental cash engine scores only 11/20 with ROIC of 9.9% and FCF yield of 2.21%, against a trailing P/E of 32.8.
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ONON: Fundamental cash engine scores only 11/20 with ROIC of 9.9% and FCF yield of 2.21%, against a trailing P/E of 32.8.. At 32.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Shoe Manufacturing triggers a 12-15% air pocket.