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Stock Ratings / Financials / ORC / earnings
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Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.3% Move

$4.79 -0.83% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.77

Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $932.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Orchid Island Capital Inc. (NYSE: ORC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $4.79 (-0.83% 1D, market cap $932.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ORC ranks #651 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORC compare to JBGS and CSR in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ORC carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.0%, cap $900.6M) and CSR (D/B/A Centerspace) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 57.7x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $993.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORC leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while ORC leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORC?
▼

Per ORC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001518621), Orchid Island Capital Inc. generated $4.90B in revenue (+104.1% YoY), $159.3M in net income, and $120.4M in free cash flow against $11.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.77 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.5% Base Target
$9 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE ORC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ORC SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$5.08-4.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$4.87+3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$5.04-5% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$4.79-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ORC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ORC currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.61) and Max Pain ($5.03) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ORC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.3% Swing Band

±$0.35 Expected Swing
$4.44 (-7.3%)Spot $4.79$5.14 (+7.3%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ORC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $0.83 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$4.90B$159.3M$120.4M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$2.40B$37.8M$67.0M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$176.4M-$39.2M$8.0M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ORC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ORC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ORC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.88%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $4.80H $4.83L $4.79C $4.79VOL 10.12M
RES: $6.89SUP: $4.53SMA50: $5.61SMA200: $6.68
$7.47$6.73$5.99$5.26$4.52RES $6.89SUP $4.53$4.792026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ORC Butterfly Map → + Track ORC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +104.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORC)

Financials Rank #651 of 1097 ⚔️ JBGS vs ORC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ORC vs. JBGS, CSR, ESRT, SAFE)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) ranks #651 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #569 by equity capitalization ($932.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ORC leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while ORC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. CSR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with ORC at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ORC ACTIVE
Orchid Island Capital Inc.
D 50/100 6.1x — 11.6% -0.83% $932.2M Benchmark Subject
JBGS
JBG SMITH Properties
D- 43/100 — — -12.0% -2.90% $900.6M /jbgs-vs-orc →
CSR
D/B/A Centerspace
D+ 55/100 57.7x — 7.2% -3.23% $993.7M /csr-vs-orc →
ESRT
Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — — 11.6% +1.20% $859.1M /esrt-vs-orc →
SAFE
Safehold Inc.
D 51/100 7.0x — 3.3% -2.77% $817.9M /safe-vs-orc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001518621 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) reported GAAP revenue of $4.90B (+104.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.40B , and +2679.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $159.3M, operating cash flow of $120.4M, and free cash flow of $120.4M (+79.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORC closed FY2025 with $11.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.90B $159.3M $120.4M $120.4M $11.68B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.40B $37.8M $67.0M $67.0M $5.72B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $176.4M -$39.2M $8.0M $8.0M — —

3. ORC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Orchid Island Capital Inc. (NYSE: ORC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $4.79 (-0.83% 1D, market cap $932.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ORC ranks #651 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ORC compare to JBGS and CSR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ORC carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.0%, cap $900.6M) and CSR (D/B/A Centerspace) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 57.7x, ROIC 7.2%, cap $993.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ORC leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while ORC leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORC?

Per ORC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001518621), Orchid Island Capital Inc. generated $4.90B in revenue (+104.1% YoY), $159.3M in net income, and $120.4M in free cash flow against $11.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ORC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORC last traded at $4.79 (-0.83% on volume of 7,999,568 shares), positioning the stock -14.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.61) and -28.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.68). Across its 52-week range of $4.75 to $8.40, ORC sits at the 1.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($4.44 to $5.14).

Direct Sub-Reports: ORC RQD Cockpit ORC 12M Forecast ORC Earnings & Move ORC Dividends & DRIP ORC Insiders & 13F ORC Whale Options ORC Profit Sankey ORC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ORC — Orchid Island Capital Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.79 (-0.83% 1D, market capitalization $932.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 12.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $926.4M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.6% (free cash flow yield of 12.41%). Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) reported $4.90B in annual revenue (up from $2.40B in FY2024, +104.1% YoY) and $159.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($176.4M revenue, -$39.2M net income) through FY2025, ORC scaled operating cash flow to $120.4M and free cash flow to $120.4M, backed by $11.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 12.41% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.75 – $8.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signal links recorded for ORC. Source data therefore does not identify 2nd-order bottlenecks. The only sector context available is the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification and the beta of 1.0 per the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ORC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 11.6% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.90B and free cash flow of $120.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ORC's 5.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ORC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ORC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.10 (+27.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 12.41% FCF yield with 11.6% ROIC support the cash engine despite a 6.1 trailing P/E.

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 12.41% FCF yield with 11.6% ROIC support the cash engine despite a 6.1 trailing P/E.. When you look under the hood at ORC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 10/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 11.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (4/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.40. My 12M target is $6.10.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 50/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $4.80 and keeping dry powder in case we test $4.46.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.79 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $4.80

Weak whale 13F flow (4/20), a 52-week low near $4.75, and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 point to distribution pressure and balance sheet s

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ORC: Weak whale 13F flow (4/20), a 52-week low near $4.75, and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 point to distribution pressure and balance sheet strain.. At 6.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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