O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$88.12 +0.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.96

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $71.25B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ORLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $88.12 (+0.06% 1D, market cap $71.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ORLY ranks #192 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ORLY compare to AZO and AAP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ORLY carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.1x, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 48.0%. By comparison, AZO (AutoZone Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 55.8%, cap $50.49B) and AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORLY?
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Per ORLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000898173), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. generated $17.78B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $2.54B in net income, and $1.59B in free cash flow against $16.54B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (52% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.96 (-0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (16)Whales (10)SEC (18)Macro (10)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$108 Bull$92 Base$72 Bear
📬 FREE ORLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ORLY SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.81 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9% FCF Margin ($1.59B FCF) & 51.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.6) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$86.03+4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$90.02-0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$89.82-1.9% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$88.12+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ORLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, ORLY faces multiple-compression risk if 28.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($87.12) or 200D SMA ($90.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($91.69) toward Bear Floor ($71.52).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ORLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
49.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.81>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE
L: $83$88.12H: $102
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (52% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: B+RQD 16 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on ORLY

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (80)

48.0% ROIC with 51.6% gross margin and 2.24% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 6.81 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (55)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ORLY
  • ✓Strong cash generator (52% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ORLY Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ORLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.24%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $90.44H $90.44L $88.07C $88.12VOL 12.00M
RES: $92.51SUP: $83.11SMA50: $87.12SMA200: $90.47
$98.77$94.38$90.00$85.61$81.23RES $92.51SUP $83.11$88.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
21.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORLY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #192 of 1011 ⚔️ AZO vs ORLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ORLY vs. AZO, AAP, HZO, ONEW)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) ranks #192 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #35 by equity capitalization ($71.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. ORLY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ORLY ACTIVE
O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
C+ 67/100 28.1x 51.6% 48.0% +0.06% $71.25B Benchmark Subject
AZO
AutoZone Inc.
C+ 67/100 20.2x 52.6% 55.8% +1.05% $50.49B /azo-vs-orly →
AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc.
E 28/100 62.8x 43.4% -1.4% -1.36% $2.76B /aap-vs-orly →
HZO
MarineMax Inc. (FL)
D 51/100 — 32.5% 2.4% +0.32% $1.16B /hzo-vs-orly →
ONEW
OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 — 22.8% -11.2% +0.63% $159.7M /onew-vs-orly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000898173

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) reported GAAP revenue of $17.78B (+6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $16.71B , and +12.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.54B, operating cash flow of $2.76B, and free cash flow of $1.59B (-21.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORLY closed FY2025 with $16.54B in total assets against $6.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.81, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $17.78B $2.54B $2.76B $1.59B $16.54B $6.02B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $16.71B $2.39B $3.05B $2.03B $14.89B $5.52B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $15.81B $2.35B $3.03B $2.32B $39.18B $9.17B

3. ORLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $88.12 (+0.06% 1D, market cap $71.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ORLY ranks #192 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ORLY compare to AZO and AAP in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), ORLY carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.1x, gross margin of 51.6%, and ROIC of 48.0%. By comparison, AZO (AutoZone Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 55.8%, cap $50.49B) and AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORLY?

Per ORLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000898173), O'Reilly Automotive Inc. generated $17.78B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $2.54B in net income, and $1.59B in free cash flow against $16.54B in total assets and $6.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (52% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ORLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORLY last traded at $88.12 (+0.06% on volume of 10,386,829 shares), positioning the stock +1.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($87.12) and -2.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($90.47). Across its 52-week range of $82.59 to $102.46, ORLY sits at the 27.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($83.89 to $92.35).

ORLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ORLY stock right now?

O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 52% profit margin (48% return on capital), mixed timing at 28x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ORLY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ORLY's 12-month base price target is $91.69 (range $71.52 to $108.19), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ORLY — O'Reilly Automotive Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:28Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ORLY scores 67 and receives a letter grade of C+, with the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are scored as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects ROIC of 48% and an FCF yield of 2.24%. The high return on capital is a genuine strength, but the 2.24% FCF yield means the market is pricing the cash stream at a premium, so a prospective investor is paying for growth and quality rather than buying cheap cash flow.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score in the lower-middle range. Because the holders section is unavailable, this pillar cannot be decomposed further.
  • Insider Conviction: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow earns a moderate score. Underlying trade-level detail is not available in source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta of 0.92 and sector sensitivity place this pillar in the lower range. A beta below 1.0 implies somewhat lower market-linked volatility, but the score indicates limited macro tailwind in the current regime.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z of 6.81, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85 indicate a strong balance-sheet profile and the highest-scoring pillar.

Investor implications: The upside case rests on the cash engine and balance sheet quality. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: P/E (TTM) of 28.1 and forward P/E of 26.1 sit well above the 2.24% FCF yield, so returns depend on continued earnings growth and multiple stability. The weaker pillars (whale flow and macro fit) suggest the rating is a balanced Hold rather than a directional call. The "Watch for Breakout" label indicates the rating frames this as a name to monitor for a change in institutional or macro signals.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
88.07$71.25B28.126.117.33.140%0.92$82.59 - $102.4648%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$17782.0M$3460.6M$2538.2MN/A$1593.2M$193.8M$6016.9M
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)$16708.5M$3251.2M$2386.7MN/A$2026.2M$130.2M$5520.9M
FY 2023 (filed 2023-12-31)$15812.2M$3186.4M$2346.6MN/A$2322.5MN/A$9169.3M

Per the market data, gross margin is 51.6%, operating margin 19.5%, and net margin 14.3%, with ROIC of 48%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 6.81 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.85. Reported revenue and operating income rose across the three periods shown, while FCF declined from $2322.5M to $1593.2M. Debt was $9169.3M in FY 2023, $5520.9M in FY 2024, and $6016.9M in FY 2025.

Open Questions

  • What is the revenue and EPS trajectory beyond FY 2025, given that EPS is reported as N/A in every period?
  • Why did FCF decline from $2322.5M (FY 2023) to $1593.2M (FY 2025) while net income rose, and what drove the change in working capital or capital expenditure?
  • What is the actual composition of institutional ownership and recent 13F changes, given that holders data is unavailable?
  • What is the specific earnings date and consensus expectation underlying the RBC price-target catalyst?
  • How does the cash balance of $193.8M reconcile with the debt load of $6016.9M in FY 2025, and what is the debt maturity profile?

ORLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ORLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ORLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $88.12?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ORLY 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ORLY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $95.12 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ORLY (C+ • RQD 67/100) a Buy at $88.07?

Welcome to the ORLY (O'Reilly Automotive Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 67/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Auto & Home Supply Stores. Bulls point to capital efficiency (48.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $67.81 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $88.07

Pump the brakes on ORLY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ORLY, but look at what you are paying: 28.1x trailing P/E with 51.6% gross margins. Unless O'Reilly Automotive Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $110.97 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $88.07

ORLY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ORLY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto & Home Supply Stores and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $88.07 (52-wk range $82.59 - $102.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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