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Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$25.07 +3.17% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.17

Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.24B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OSBC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OSBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OSBC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $25.07 (+3.17% 1D, market cap $1.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OSBC ranks #338 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OSBC compare to CTBI and MCB in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OSBC carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, CTBI (Community Trust Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.25B) and MCB (Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSBC?
▼

Per OSBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000357173), Old Second Bancorp Inc. generated $2.90B in revenue (+22.2% YoY), $80.3M in net income, and $117.8M in free cash flow against $6.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.17 (+0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$30 Bull$26 Base$20 Bear
📬 FREE OSBC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OSBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OSBC SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$24.80+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$25.10-2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$24.60+1.9% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$25.07+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OSBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, OSBC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($24.94) or 200D SMA ($22.54) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.52) toward Bear Floor ($19.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OSBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OSBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OSBC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $25.07: 398.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $19.91
$7,942
$-2,058 (-20.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $25.52
$10,179
+$179 (+1.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $30.11
$12,010
+$2,010 (+20.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$2869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$2358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OSBC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
OSBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.29%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $24.55H $25.07L $24.30C $25.07VOL 522.0K
RES: $25.36SUP: $23.51SMA50: $24.94SMA200: $22.54
$26.54$24.54$22.54$20.53$18.53RES $25.36SUP $23.51$25.072026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OSBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OSBC Butterfly Map → + Track OSBC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OSBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OSBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OSBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OSBC)

Financials Rank #338 of 1097 ⚔️ CTBI vs OSBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OSBC vs. CTBI, MCB, AMTB, HBT)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) ranks #338 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #516 by equity capitalization ($1.24B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CTBI leads on earnings valuation at 13.0x trailing P/E, while HBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HBT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with OSBC at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OSBC ACTIVE
Old Second Bancorp Inc.
C 62/100 15.6x — 9.0% +3.17% $1.24B Benchmark Subject
CTBI
Community Trust Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 13.0x — 11.5% +1.52% $1.25B /ctbi-vs-osbc →
MCB
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.
C+ 66/100 16.8x — 9.6% +2.30% $1.18B /mcb-vs-osbc →
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc. (Class A)
C+ 66/100 22.4x — 5.6% +1.67% $1.17B /amtb-vs-osbc →
HBT
HBT Financial Inc.
C+ 69/100 17.4x — 12.5% +2.71% $1.33B /hbt-vs-osbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000357173 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) reported GAAP revenue of $2.90B (+22.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.37B , and +555.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $80.3M, operating cash flow of $122.3M, and free cash flow of $117.8M (-2.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OSBC closed FY2025 with $6.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.90B $80.3M $122.3M $117.8M $6.90B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.37B $85.3M $131.5M $120.7M $5.65B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $442.3M $91.7M $116.4M $116.4M — —

3. OSBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OSBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Old Second Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OSBC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $25.07 (+3.17% 1D, market cap $1.24B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OSBC ranks #338 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OSBC compare to CTBI and MCB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OSBC carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, CTBI (Community Trust Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.25B) and MCB (Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 16.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CTBI leads on earnings multiple (13.0x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSBC?

Per OSBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000357173), Old Second Bancorp Inc. generated $2.90B in revenue (+22.2% YoY), $80.3M in net income, and $117.8M in free cash flow against $6.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OSBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OSBC last traded at $25.07 (+3.17% on volume of 558,397 shares), positioning the stock +0.52% above its 50-day simple moving average ($24.94) and +11.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.54). Across its 52-week range of $17.61 to $26.06, OSBC sits at the 88.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($23.94 to $26.20).

Direct Sub-Reports: OSBC RQD Cockpit OSBC 12M Forecast OSBC Earnings & Move OSBC Dividends & DRIP OSBC Insiders & 13F OSBC Whale Options OSBC Profit Sankey OSBC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OSBC — Old Second Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $25.07 (+3.17% 1D, market capitalization $1.24B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 9.40%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry..3B, while the market data reports $1.25B. —: product lines, customer segments, and revenue model details.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) reported $2.90B in annual revenue (up from $2.37B in FY2024, +22.2% YoY) and $80.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($442.3M revenue, $91.7M net income) through FY2025, OSBC scaled operating cash flow to $122.3M and free cash flow to $117.8M, backed by $6.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 9.40% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.61 – $26.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.6x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

—: upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks. The one sector-level read in the source is the Roarable RQD rating's note on sector sensitivity, which is not quantified. Investors should watch the deposit-shift and charge-off themes raised in the news wire, as these are the most direct candidates for second-order effects on earnings, though the source does not model them.

  • Key Question #1: Can OSBC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.0% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.90B and free cash flow of $117.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OSBC's 14.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OSBC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Old Second Bancorp Inc. (OSBC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OSBC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OSBC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.07?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OSBC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OSBC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $30.86 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 16/20 and the stock offers a 9.4% FCF yield at a 14.5 forward P/E.

Insider conviction scores 16/20 and the stock offers a 9.4% FCF yield at a 14.5 forward P/E.. When you look under the hood at OSBC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $26.06. My 12M target is $30.86.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 62/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $24.30 and keeping dry powder in case we test $22.60.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $20.17 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $24.30

Institutional flow scores only 10/20 and the company reportedly missed Q3 2026 revenue estimates.

Fading this rally in OSBC at $24.30. Institutional flow scores only 10/20 and the company reportedly missed Q3 2026 revenue estimates.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $24.30 (52-wk range $17.61–$26.06), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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