Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (NYSE: OSG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $5.01 (-3.65% 1D, market cap $234.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OSG ranks #996 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), OSG carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MBI (MBIA Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $233.7M) and KWY (Kingsway Corporation) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $288.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).
Per OSG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874501), Octave Specialty Group Inc. generated $143.4M in revenue (+55.8% YoY), -$259.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.1% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While OSG currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.65) and Max Pain ($5.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.90.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) dropped -3.65% to $5.01, trading at 17% of its 52-week range ($3.88 – $10.38). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ad-hoc-news.de report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ad-hoc-news.de report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +55.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OSG today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OSG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) ranks #996 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #858 by equity capitalization ($234.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with OSG at 33/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSG
ACTIVE
Octave Specialty Group Inc. | E | 33/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.65% | $234.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| MBI MBIA Inc. | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -3.27% | $233.7M | /mbi-vs-osg → |
| KWY Kingsway Corporation | E | 32/100 | — | — | -13.6% | -1.30% | $288.2M | /kwy-vs-osg → |
| KINS Kingstone Companies Inc. | B | 72/100 | 7.1x | — | 33.2% | -2.30% | $295.5M | /kins-vs-osg → |
| JRVR James River Group Holdings Inc. | D- | 35/100 | 3.8x | — | 8.8% | -2.77% | $183.6M | /jrvr-vs-osg → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) reported GAAP revenue of $143.4M (+55.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $92.0M , and +179.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$259.0M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, OSG closed FY2025 with $2.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $143.4M | -$259.0M | — | — | $2.22B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $92.0M | -$556.0M | — | — | $8.06B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $51.3M | $5.0M | — | — | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Octave Specialty Group Inc. (NYSE: OSG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $5.01 (-3.65% 1D, market cap $234.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OSG ranks #996 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), OSG carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MBI (MBIA Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $233.7M) and KWY (Kingsway Corporation) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.6%, cap $288.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).
Per OSG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874501), Octave Specialty Group Inc. generated $143.4M in revenue (+55.8% YoY), -$259.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
OSG last traded at $5.01 (-3.65% on volume of 334,462 shares), positioning the stock +7.74% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.65) and -3.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.20). Across its 52-week range of $3.88 to $10.38, OSG sits at the 17.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($4.65 to $5.37).
Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $5.01 (-3.65% 1D, market capitalization $234.3M).
Octave Specialty Group Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. The profile does not describe the company's specific products, customers, or revenue model.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) reported $143.4M in annual revenue (up from $92.0M in FY2024, +55.8% YoY) and -$259.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($51.3M revenue, $5.0M net income) through FY2025, OSG scaled operating cash flow to $0 and free cash flow to $0, backed by $2.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be identified from the source data. Sector context is limited to the Financials classification and Property-Casualty Insurers industry. Investors should monitor the scheduled Third Quarter 2026 results on November 9, 2026 for any change in reported economics.
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Yahoo Finance report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ad-hoc-news.de report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ad-hoc-news.de report covering Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The street is overcomplicating Octave Specialty Group Inc. (OSG). Revenue grew from $51.3M in FY 2023 to $143.4M in FY 2025 and the whale-flow pillar scored 9 out of 20.. With an RQD score of 33/100 (E) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $5.44.
@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 9/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $5.04 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.
I respect the product at Octave Specialty Group Inc., but the stock at $5.04 is a different story. Net income fell to -$259.0M in FY 2025 with ROIC at -35% and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 33/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?
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