MARKET WIREBenzinga • 3d ago
Barclays Maintains Overweight on Oatly Group, Lowers Price Target to $10Barclays analyst Andrew Lazar maintains Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $13 to $10.
Why OTLY Stock dropped -3.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$7.75 -3.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.69
Oatly Group AB (OTLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $247.3M
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Is OTLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ: OTLY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $7.75 (-3.12% 1D, market cap $247.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, OTLY ranks #94 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does OTLY compare to BGS and AFRI in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), OTLY carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BGS (B&G Foods Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.3%, cap $188.6M) and AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $337.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTLY?
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For Oatly Group AB (OTLY), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #94 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.69 (-0.75%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OTLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OTLY SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (29% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.2% FCF Margin ($6.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$10.88+17.5% Next Q
53
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$12.78-8.1% Next Q
50
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$11.75-34% Next Q
48
CurrentGrade D$7.75-6.3% Hist 90D α
45
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OTLY Turnaround Squeeze
While OTLY currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.90) and Max Pain ($8.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.01.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OTLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OTLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OTLY Stock dropped -3.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Oatly Group AB (OTLY) dropped -3.12% to $7.75, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($7.38 – $16.2). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($7.38 – $16.2) with RSI-14 at 24.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $7.75 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $6.9M annual free cash flow.
Live OTLY Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHYahoo • 4d ago
Oatly (OTLY) Stock Sinks As Q3 Earnings Meet A Guidance CutOatly Group just reported Q3 2026 and the stock sold off fast. The share price closed at US$8, down 6.5% on the day, even though the company posted revenue of US$243.1m and swung to positive adjusted EBITDA of US$9.4m. T
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Oatly Group AB 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-29. The following slide deck was published by Oatly Group AB in conjunction with their 2026 Q3 earnings call.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 4d ago
BNP Paribas Maintains Outperform on Oatly Group, Lowers Price Target to $17BNP Paribas analyst Max Gumport maintains Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $22 to $17.
RISK WATCHYahoo • 4d ago
Oatly cuts profit outlook on North America fuel cost pressuresThe Sweden-based oat-drinks maker now expects adjusted EBITDA of $16m to $20m, down from $25m to $35m.
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Oatly: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsHigher-margin fiber drinks and retail shelf gains offer growth levers that could offset near-term logistics headwinds.
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Oatly (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptRevenue grew 9.1% despite logistics headwinds forcing profit guidance lower.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
What Oatly Group (OTLY) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallOatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) reported third-quarter revenue growth and a return to positive adjusted EBITDA, while cutting its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook as rising fuel and logistics costs in North America outpaced i
RISK WATCHYahoo • 5d ago
Oatly Q3 Revenue Rises 9.1% to $243.1 Million but Company Cuts Full-Year Profit OutlookOatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) reported a 9. 1% increase in third-quarter 2026 revenue to $243.
RISK WATCHSeekingAlpha • 5d ago
Oatly Group AB (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptOatly Group AB (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 28, 2026 8:00 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsJohn BaumgartnerJean-Christophe Flatin - Chief Executive...
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OTLY)
- ✓Walkthrough of OTLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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OTLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.35%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $8.00H $8.00L $7.75C $7.75VOL 264.6K
RES: $13.04SUP: $7.37SMA50: $11.90SMA200: $11.28
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OTLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OTLY today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OTLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OTLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OTLY)
Consumer Staples Rank #94 of 146
⚔️ BGS vs OTLY Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (OTLY vs. BGS, AFRI, LWAY, VITL)
Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Oatly Group AB (OTLY) ranks #94 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #95 by equity capitalization ($247.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VITL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while VITL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.1% ROIC and 37.6% gross margin. LWAY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with OTLY at 45/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTLY
ACTIVE
Oatly Group AB | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | -3.12% | $247.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| BGS B&G Foods Inc. | E | 29/100 | — | 21.8% | 3.3% | +2.66% | $188.6M | /bgs-vs-otly → |
| AFRI Forafric Global PLC | E | 24/100 | — | 10.4% | -16.5% | -0.95% | $337.3M | /afri-vs-otly → |
| LWAY Lifeway Foods Inc. | D | 48/100 | 25.3x | 27.4% | 15.9% | -1.25% | $346.4M | /lway-vs-otly → |
| VITL Vital Farms Inc. | D- | 43/100 | 6.0x | 37.6% | 23.1% | -6.67% | $372.2M | /vitl-vs-otly → |
2. OTLY Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTOatly Group AB (OTLY) operates in Packaged Foods (Consumer Staples) with an equity capitalization of $247.3M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. OTLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OTLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ: OTLY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $7.75 (-3.12% 1D, market cap $247.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, OTLY ranks #94 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OTLY compare to BGS and AFRI in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), OTLY carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BGS (B&G Foods Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.3%, cap $188.6M) and AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $337.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTLY?
For Oatly Group AB (OTLY), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #94 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OTLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OTLY last traded at $7.75 (-3.12% on volume of 264,648 shares), positioning the stock -34.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.90) and -31.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.28). Across its 52-week range of $7.38 to $16.20, OTLY sits at the 4.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.78 to $8.72).
OTLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OTLY stock moving today?
Why OTLY Stock dropped -3.12% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D)
✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED
OTLY — Oatly Group AB: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:17:05Z
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, OTLY scores 45 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The score is built from five pillars:
- Fundamental Cash Engine (12 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 0% and FCF yield is 0%. This pillar shows the business is not currently converting capital into measurable returns or free cash flow, which is the core reason it scores well below half of its available points.
- Whale 13F Flow (3 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar covers institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is the weakest pillar, indicating little supportive institutional demand in the source data.
- Insider Conviction (9 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is modest and does not indicate strong insider conviction.
- Macro Regime Fit (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with a sector sensitivity assessment. The score suggests limited favorable positioning relative to the current macro backdrop.
- Forensic Balance Sheet (13 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating the balance sheet is comparatively the most defensible part of the profile.
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock on 2026-11-02, the composite picture is that the balance sheet offers some support, while cash generation, institutional demand, and insider signals all point to weakness. The verdict label itself flags distribution risk. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be assessed precisely because multiple valuation metrics are unavailable in the source data.
Open Questions
- What are the company's revenue, operating income, and net income figures across recent reported periods, given that the financials section is empty?
- What explains the 0% reported ROIC and FCF yield, and what is the path to positive cash generation?
- What do current analyst consensus ratings and price targets look like, and how do they compare with the $8 price?
- Who are the significant institutional and insider holders, and what is driving the weak 13F flow score?
- What catalysts, if any, are expected in the near term, and how would they interact with the $7.38 - $16.2 trading range?
OTLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Oatly Group AB (OTLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 3d ago
Barclays Maintains Overweight on Oatly Group, Lowers Price Target to $10 Barclays analyst Andrew Lazar maintains Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $13 to $10.
🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 4d ago
Oatly (OTLY) Stock Sinks As Q3 Earnings Meet A Guidance Cut Oatly Group just reported Q3 2026 and the stock sold off fast. The share price closed at US$8, down 6.5% on the day, even though the company posted revenue of US$243.1m and swung to positive adjusted EBITDA of US$9.4m. T
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Oatly Group AB 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation 2026-10-29. The following slide deck was published by Oatly Group AB in conjunction with their 2026 Q3 earnings call.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 4d ago
BNP Paribas Maintains Outperform on Oatly Group, Lowers Price Target to $17 BNP Paribas analyst Max Gumport maintains Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $22 to $17.
🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 4d ago
Oatly cuts profit outlook on North America fuel cost pressures The Sweden-based oat-drinks maker now expects adjusted EBITDA of $16m to $20m, down from $25m to $35m.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 5d ago
Oatly: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors Higher-margin fiber drinks and retail shelf gains offer growth levers that could offset near-term logistics headwinds.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 5d ago
Oatly (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Revenue grew 9.1% despite logistics headwinds forcing profit guidance lower.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 5d ago
What Oatly Group (OTLY) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) reported third-quarter revenue growth and a return to positive adjusted EBITDA, while cutting its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook as rising fuel and logistics costs in North America outpaced i
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
OTLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.75?
🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OTLY 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $7.04 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate 🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is OTLY (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $8.00?
Welcome to the OTLY (Oatly Group AB) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Packaged Foods. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $6.32 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $8.00 Pump the brakes on OTLY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on OTLY, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Oatly Group AB expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $9.92 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $8.00 OTLY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on OTLY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Packaged Foods and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $8.00 (52-wk range $7.38 - $16.20), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.