Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.54 -0.78% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.53

Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $500.0M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OVID stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: OVID) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $2.54 (-0.78% 1D, market cap $500.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OVID ranks #526 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OVID compare to MPLT and CTMX in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), OVID carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -28.5%. By comparison, MPLT (MapLight Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $500.1M) and CTMX (CytomX Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (14/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $499.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVID leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTMX leads on capital efficiency (-20.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OVID?
β–Ό

Per OVID's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001636651), Ovid Therapeutics Inc. generated $7.3M in revenue (+1181.3% YoY), -$17.4M in net income, and -$38.3M in free cash flow against $150.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.53 (-0.33%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510040
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- Β· Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (13)SEC (11)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.3% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE OVID RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OVID)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY OVID SCORES 40/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±12.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.46 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$2.41-10% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$2.17-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$2.15+18.1% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$2.54-7.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (32) β†’ D- (40)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OVID Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While OVID currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.53) and Max Pain ($2.67) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.27.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OVIDβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œOVID Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (OVID)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for OVID.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OVID)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of OVID's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OVID // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.31%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $2.45H $2.56L $2.45C $2.54VOL 2.04M
RES: $3.12SUP: $2.08SMA50: $2.53SMA200: $2.37
$3.09$2.68$2.28$1.88$1.47RES $3.12SUP $2.08$2.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OVID Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OVID today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OVID. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OVID today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OVID)

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OVID vs. MPLT, CTMX, PHAT, EOLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) ranks #526 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #452 by equity capitalization ($500.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OVID leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTMX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.5% ROIC and β€” gross margin. OVID currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OVID ACTIVE
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.
D- 40/100 β€” β€” -28.5% -0.78% $500.0M Benchmark Subject
MPLT
MapLight Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 β€” β€” -32.4% -1.81% $500.1M /mplt-vs-ovid β†’
CTMX
CytomX Therapeutics Inc.
E 14/100 β€” β€” -20.5% +2.18% $499.0M /ctmx-vs-ovid β†’
PHAT
Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 34/100 β€” 87.1% -35.0% -7.72% $503.2M /phat-vs-ovid β†’
EOLS
Evolus Inc.
E 27/100 β€” 66.3% -35.0% -2.26% $496.7M /eols-vs-ovid β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001636651

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) reported GAAP revenue of $7.3M (+1181.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $566.0K , and +1750.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$17.4M, operating cash flow of -$38.3M, and free cash flow of -$38.3M (+31.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, OVID closed FY2025 with $150.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.46, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $7.3M -$17.4M -$38.3M -$38.3M $150.9M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $566.0K -$26.4M -$56.0M -$56.0M $92.2M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $392.0K -$52.3M -$45.8M -$45.8M β€” β€”

3. OVID Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OVID stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: OVID) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $2.54 (-0.78% 1D, market cap $500.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OVID ranks #526 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OVID compare to MPLT and CTMX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), OVID carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -28.5%. By comparison, MPLT (MapLight Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $500.1M) and CTMX (CytomX Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (14/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.5%, cap $499.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVID leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTMX leads on capital efficiency (-20.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OVID?

Per OVID's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001636651), Ovid Therapeutics Inc. generated $7.3M in revenue (+1181.3% YoY), -$17.4M in net income, and -$38.3M in free cash flow against $150.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OVID trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OVID last traded at $2.54 (-0.78% on volume of 3,145,568 shares), positioning the stock +0.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.53) and +7.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.37). Across its 52-week range of $1.18 to $3.11, OVID sits at the 70.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($2.22 to $2.86).

OVID Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is OVID's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for OVID.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 40/100 (D-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

OVID β€” Ovid Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:47Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, OVID scores 40 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 6 out of 20, reflecting ROIC of -28.5% and FCF yield of -7.67%; for an investor, this means the business is currently consuming cash rather than generating it, so any valuation depends on future program success rather than present earnings power. The whale/13F flow pillar scores 13 out of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, which is the strongest pillar and represents a potential upside driver if institutional interest persists. The insider conviction pillar scores 3 out of 20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, indicating weak insider-side signal. The macro regime fit pillar scores 7 out of 20 with a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity noted, meaning the stock is expected to move in line with the broader market without a defensive offset. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 11 out of 20, citing an Altman Z-Score of 11.46, a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9, and debt-to-equity of 0.5; the high Altman figure is a relative strength, while the low Piotroski score signals weak fundamental trend quality. Taken together, a prospective investor should weigh the institutional-flow strength against the negative cash generation and weak insider signal, and recognize that the rating reflects present financial vulnerability rather than a verdict on pipeline potential, which the source data does not quantify.

Business

Ovid Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Per the company profile, the market capitalization is $0.5B. The source data does not specify the company's products, customers, or revenue model beyond the reported financial figures.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$7.3M$-42.4M$-17.4MN/A$-38.3M$13.2MN/A
FY 2024$0.6M$-61.9M$-26.4MN/A$-56.0M$26.3MN/A
FY 2023$0.4M$-59.3M$-52.3MN/A$-45.8MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $0.4M in FY 2023 to $7.3M in FY 2025, while operating losses narrowed from $-59.3M to $-42.4M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%, with ROIC at -28.5%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 11.46 and the Piotroski F-Score is 3 out of 9. Cash declined from $26.3M in FY 2024 to $13.2M in FY 2025, and debt-to-equity is 0.5 per the rating inputs.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, headlines include a Yahoo Finance report on a fair value boost tied to analyst focus on OV329, a GuruFocus report on Wolfe Research initiating coverage with an outperform-type rating, and a Simply Wall St piece urging management to drive business growth carefully, which carries a GREEN catalyst light. Additional wire items include a TradingView listing, a Yahoo! Finance Canada seasonal-returns chart referencing a different company, and a report of the stock rising 3.71% to $2.23 as shares approached upper range call resistance. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain links and no proprietary signals, so no upstream or downstream dependency is mapped.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not establish upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the Health Care sector and Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations classification. A prospective investor should note that pipeline-related second-order effects, such as partner dependencies or manufacturing relationships, are not resolved by the available data.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific commercial products or pipeline programs generating the $7.3M in FY 2025 revenue, and what is their regulatory status?
  • What are the valuation metrics (P/E, EV/EBITDA, EPS) given the absence of reported earnings per share?
  • What is the composition of the debt position, since debt is listed as N/A in every reported period despite a debt-to-equity figure of 0.5?
  • What is the company's cash runway given FY 2025 cash of $13.2M against FCF of $-38.3M?
  • Who are the 13F institutional holders and insiders driving the whale-flow and insider pillar scores?

OVID Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to OVID Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OVID Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $2.54?

πŸ‚ 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OVID 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OVID:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.25 (-12.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is OVID (D- β€’ RQD 40/100) a Buy at $2.56?

Welcome to the OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.92 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $2.56

Pump the brakes on OVID β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on OVID, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Ovid Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.15 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $2.56

OVID cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on OVID, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.56 (52-wk range $1.18 - $3.11), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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