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Stock Ratings / Financials / OVLY / earnings
BPRN (62) QNBC (70) HWBK (67) FUNC (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.4% Move

$34.85 +1.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.86

Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $289.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OVLY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OVLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (NASDAQ: OVLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $34.85 (+1.22% 1D, market cap $289.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OVLY ranks #221 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OVLY compare to BPRN and QNBC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OVLY carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.8%. By comparison, BPRN (Princeton Bancorp Inc. (PA)) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $292.9M) and QNBC (QNB Corp.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $293.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVLY leads on earnings multiple (9.4x) while OVLY leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OVLY?
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Per OVLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001431567), Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) generated $849.7M in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $30.8M in net income, and $24.6M in free cash flow against $2.02B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.86 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$43 Bull$36 Base$28 Bear
📬 FREE OVLY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OVLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OVLY SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$33.96-1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$33.60+2.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$34.29+1.6% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$34.85+1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OVLY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, OVLY faces multiple-compression risk if 9.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.14) or 200D SMA ($33.48) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($36.10) toward Bear Floor ($28.16).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OVLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OVLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.4% Swing Band

±$1.53 Expected Swing
$33.32 (-4.4%)Spot $34.85$36.38 (+4.4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

OVLY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 66/100

Trailing EPS: $3.67 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (66/100)Model Risk Weight (34/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$849.7M$30.8M$24.6M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$798.3M$24.9M$23.9M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$125.6M$23.9M$33.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating OVLY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on OVLY
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OVLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.41%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $34.48H $34.85L $34.43C $34.85VOL 11.5K
RES: $35.20SUP: $33.07SMA50: $34.14SMA200: $33.48
$36.39$34.66$32.93$31.19$29.46RES $35.20SUP $33.07$34.852026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OVLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OVLY Butterfly Map → + Track OVLY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-2.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OVLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OVLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OVLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OVLY)

Financials Rank #221 of 1097 ⚔️ BPRN vs OVLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OVLY vs. BPRN, QNBC, HWBK, FUNC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) ranks #221 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #817 by equity capitalization ($289.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OVLY leads on earnings valuation at 9.4x trailing P/E, while OVLY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. QNBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with OVLY at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OVLY ACTIVE
Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)
C+ 66/100 9.4x — 14.8% +1.22% $289.6M Benchmark Subject
BPRN
Princeton Bancorp Inc. (PA)
C 62/100 15.8x — 6.9% +2.26% $292.9M /bprn-vs-ovly →
QNBC
QNB Corp.
B- 70/100 20.8x — 10.9% +0.72% $293.0M /qnbc-vs-ovly →
HWBK
Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.2x — 13.7% +0.98% $284.9M /hwbk-vs-ovly →
FUNC
First United Corporation
C+ 67/100 12.1x — 12.0% +1.70% $295.8M /func-vs-ovly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001431567 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) reported GAAP revenue of $849.7M (+6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $798.3M , and +576.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $30.8M, operating cash flow of $28.7M, and free cash flow of $24.6M (+2.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, OVLY closed FY2025 with $2.02B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $849.7M $30.8M $28.7M $24.6M $2.02B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $798.3M $24.9M $25.6M $23.9M $1.90B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $125.6M $23.9M $33.1M $33.1M — —

3. OVLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OVLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (NASDAQ: OVLY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $34.85 (+1.22% 1D, market cap $289.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, OVLY ranks #221 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OVLY compare to BPRN and QNBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OVLY carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.8%. By comparison, BPRN (Princeton Bancorp Inc. (PA)) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $292.9M) and QNBC (QNB Corp.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $293.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVLY leads on earnings multiple (9.4x) while OVLY leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OVLY?

Per OVLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001431567), Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) generated $849.7M in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $30.8M in net income, and $24.6M in free cash flow against $2.02B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OVLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OVLY last traded at $34.85 (+1.22% on volume of 15,528 shares), positioning the stock +2.08% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.14) and +4.09% above its 200-day simple moving average ($33.48). Across its 52-week range of $27.21 to $35.97, OVLY sits at the 87.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($33.32 to $36.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: OVLY RQD Cockpit OVLY 12M Forecast OVLY Earnings & Move OVLY Dividends & DRIP OVLY Insiders & 13F OVLY Whale Options OVLY Profit Sankey OVLY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OVLY — Oak Valley Bancorp (CA): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $34.85 (+1.22% 1D, market capitalization $289.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.47%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and Major Banks industry. The profile identifies its market capitalization as $0.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) reported $849.7M in annual revenue (up from $798.3M in FY2024, +6.4% YoY) and $30.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($125.6M revenue, $23.9M net income) through FY2025, OVLY scaled operating cash flow to $28.7M and free cash flow to $24.6M, backed by $2.02B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 66/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.47% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $27.21 – $35.97 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 9.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and 2nd-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the source data. For a prospective investor, the relevant second-order question is whether the fee-income and cost pressure referenced in the Q3 earnings headline is isolated to OVLY or reflects broader pressure across regional banks; the source does not resolve this.

  • Key Question #1: Can OVLY sustain or expand its — operating margin and 14.8% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $849.7M and free cash flow of $24.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OVLY's 8.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OVLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Oak Valley Bancorp (CA) (OVLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OVLY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OVLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $34.85?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OVLY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OVLY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $45.10 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at 8.7x forward earnings with a 14.8% ROIC and 8.47% FCF yield.

Don't sleep on OVLY's setup in Financials. Insider conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at 8.7x forward earnings with a 14.8% ROIC and 8.47% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (66/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 12/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $34.43 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.54 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $34.43

The Q3 earnings headline flags year-over-year declines from lower fee income and higher costs, and the Piotroski F-Score is only 4/9.

I respect the product at Oak Valley Bancorp (CA), but the stock at $34.43 is a different story. The Q3 earnings headline flags year-over-year declines from lower fee income and higher costs, and the Piotroski F-Score is only 4/9.. FCF yield is 8.47% and RQD sits at 66/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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