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Stock Ratings / Industrials / PAYX / earnings
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Paychex Inc. (PAYX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.9% Move

$115.49 +3.01% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $116.39

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 83/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (73.4% gross margin, 29% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE A- • BUY Cap $39.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PAYX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PAYX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 83/100 at a spot price of $115.49 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $39.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, PAYX ranks #2 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PAYX compare to PYPL and WSE in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Commercial Services), PAYX carries a Roarable A- (83/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.1x, gross margin of 73.4%, and ROIC of 28.6%. By comparison, PYPL (PayPal Holdings Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 21.6%, cap $47.36B) and WSE (Wise Group plc (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC —, cap $13.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PYPL leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while PAYX leads on capital efficiency (28.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAYX?
▼

Per PAYX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31, CIK 0000723531), Paychex Inc. generated $6.30B in revenue (+16.5% YoY), $1.76B in net income, and $2.32B in free cash flow against $16.52B in total assets and $4.55B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (73.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $116.39 (+0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 36.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 83/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 72.2% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • A-
025507510083
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw A- · Rk B+
Cash (19)Whales (13)SEC (16)Macro (16)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+11.2% Base Target
$152 Bull$128 Base$95 Bear
📬 FREE PAYX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PAYX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (83/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PAYX SCORES 83/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.8% FCF Margin ($2.32B FCF) & 73.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-7 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
75
Grade B+$108.37+3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
78
Grade A-$112.50-3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
80
Grade A-$108.21+6.7% Next Q
Current
83
Grade A-$115.49+8.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (75) → A- (83)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PAYX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 83/100 (A-) score, PAYX faces multiple-compression risk if 22.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 70.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($111.91) or 200D SMA ($103.43) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($128.48) toward Bear Floor ($94.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PAYX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PAYX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 83%NO 17%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Nov 29, 2026 (~25 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.9% Swing Band

±$5.66 Expected Swing
$109.83 (-4.9%)Spot $115.49$121.15 (+4.9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PAYX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 83/100

Trailing EPS: $4.94 • YoY Revenue Growth: 16.5%

Model Bullish Setup (83/100)Model Risk Weight (17/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252026-05-31$6.30B$1.76B$2.32B73.4%
FY 20242025-05-31$5.41B$1.66B$1.71B71.5%
FY 20232024-05-31$5.13B$1.7K$1.67B73.4%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PAYX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PAYX
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PAYX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.88%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $109.4H $115.5L $109.4C $115.5VOL 3.54M
RES: $142.4SUP: $100.9SMA50: $111.9SMA200: $103.4
$130.8$119.1$107.3$95.54$83.78RES $142.4SUP $100.9$115.52026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PAYX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PAYX Butterfly Map → + Track PAYX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
15.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PAYX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PAYX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PAYX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PAYX)

Industrials Rank #2 of 486 ⚔️ PYPL vs PAYX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (PAYX vs. PYPL, WSE, NVRI, FORR)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Paychex Inc. (PAYX) ranks #2 by composite RQD confidence (83/100, grade A-) and #41 by equity capitalization ($39.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PYPL leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while PAYX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.6% ROIC and 73.4% gross margin. PAYX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 83/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PAYX ACTIVE
Paychex Inc.
A- 83/100 22.1x 73.4% 28.6% +3.01% $39.91B Benchmark Subject
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc.
B 74/100 9.0x — 21.6% +3.11% $47.36B /pypl-vs-payx →
WSE
Wise Group plc (Class A)
D+ 53/100 27.1x — — +1.87% $13.12B /wse-vs-payx →
NVRI
Enviri Corporation
D- 39/100 — — — -2.39% $519.3M /nvri-vs-payx →
FORR
Forrester Research Inc.
D 48/100 — 57.0% -35.0% -10.54% $209.6M /forr-vs-payx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-05-31 • CIK 0000723531 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31), Paychex Inc. (PAYX) reported GAAP revenue of $6.30B (+16.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.41B , and +22.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.76B, operating cash flow of $2.56B, and free cash flow of $2.32B (+35.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, PAYX closed FY2025 with $16.52B in total assets against $4.55B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.03, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-05-31 $6.30B $1.76B $2.56B $2.32B $16.52B $4.55B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-05-31 $5.41B $1.66B $1.90B $1.71B $10.55B $798.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-05-31 $5.13B $1.7K $1.90B $1.67B $21.41B $5.01B

3. PAYX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PAYX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 83/100 at a spot price of $115.49 (+3.01% 1D, market cap $39.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, PAYX ranks #2 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PAYX compare to PYPL and WSE in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Commercial Services), PAYX carries a Roarable A- (83/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.1x, gross margin of 73.4%, and ROIC of 28.6%. By comparison, PYPL (PayPal Holdings Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 21.6%, cap $47.36B) and WSE (Wise Group plc (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 27.1x, ROIC —, cap $13.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PYPL leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while PAYX leads on capital efficiency (28.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAYX?

Per PAYX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31, CIK 0000723531), Paychex Inc. generated $6.30B in revenue (+16.5% YoY), $1.76B in net income, and $2.32B in free cash flow against $16.52B in total assets and $4.55B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (73.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PAYX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PAYX last traded at $115.49 (+3.01% on volume of 2,471,377 shares), positioning the stock +3.20% above its 50-day simple moving average ($111.91) and +11.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($103.43). Across its 52-week range of $85.45 to $127.98, PAYX sits at the 70.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($109.83 to $121.15).

Direct Sub-Reports: PAYX RQD Cockpit PAYX 12M Forecast PAYX Earnings & Move PAYX Dividends & DRIP PAYX Insiders & 13F PAYX Whale Options PAYX Profit Sankey PAYX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 83/100 (A-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PAYX — Paychex Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-05-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 83/100, corresponding to a A- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $115.49 (+3.01% 1D, market capitalization $39.91B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 28.6%, gross margin of 73.4%, operating margin of 39.8%, and free cash flow yield of 5.96%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (16/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.03, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.17x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Paychex Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector and Diversified Commercial Services industry. Per the RSS catalyst headlines, the company's offerings include payroll and HR tooling, including an AI HR tool and a workforce management product recognized in a review of 12 systems..9B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-05-31), Paychex Inc. (PAYX) reported $6.30B in annual revenue (up from $5.41B in FY2024, +16.5% YoY) and $1.76B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.13B revenue, $1.7K net income) through FY2025, PAYX scaled operating cash flow to $2.56B and free cash flow to $2.32B, backed by $16.52B in total assets against $4.55B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (A- • RQD 83/100): Strong cash generator (73.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $85.45 – $127.98 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 22.1x trailing P/E and 15.5x EV/EBITDA against 39.8% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Diversified Commercial Services (Industrials), PAYX carries a macro regime beta of 0.92 and gross margin of 73.4%.

  • Key Question #1: Can PAYX sustain or expand its 39.8% operating margin and 28.6% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $6.30B and free cash flow of $2.32B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $4.55B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PAYX's 18.6x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

PAYX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Paychex Inc. (PAYX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PAYX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PAYX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $115.49?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PAYX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PAYX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $130.06 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 28.6% ROIC and 5.96% FCF yield, paired with 19-of-20 insider conviction, give the rating its strongest support.

Picked up a starter position in PAYX in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $112.12. A 28.6% ROIC and 5.96% FCF yield, paired with 19-of-20 insider conviction, give the rating its strongest support.. Trading inside a $85.45–$127.98 52-week range with 5.96% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Diversified Commercial Services multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 83/100 quality, though with 0.92 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $112.12 and keeping dry powder in case we test $104.27.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $85.21 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $112.12

Valuation & margin reality check on PAYX at $112.12 before chasing here

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on PAYX: Valuation & margin reality check on PAYX at $112.12 before chasing here. At 22.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Diversified Commercial Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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