What is PDLB's 12-month stock price target?

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $23.45 (+4.5% from $22.44), with a bull-case target of $27.67 and a bear-case floor of $18.29.

Stock Ratings / Financials / PDLB / forecast

NRIM (62) FMAO (68) KRNY (54) HTB (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is PDLB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates PDLB C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 68/100.

$22.44 -0.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.39

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $544.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PDLB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PDLB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $22.44 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $544.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, PDLB ranks #157 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PDLB compare to NRIM and FMAO in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PDLB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.1%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $530.5M) and FMAO (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $501.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PDLB?

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Per PDLB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001874071), Ponce Financial Group Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+6.1% YoY), $27.6M in net income, and $54.6M in free cash flow against $3.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.39 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PDLB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PDLB SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (74) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$20.11+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$20.15+8.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$21.78+3% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$22.44+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PDLB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, PDLB faces multiple-compression risk if 19.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.54) or 200D SMA ($18.79) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.45) toward Bear Floor ($18.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PDLB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PDLB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PDLB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $22.44: 445.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $18.29

$8,151

$-1,849 (-18.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $23.45

$10,450

+$450 (+4.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $27.67

$12,331

+$2,331 (+23.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$24	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$26	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$21	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PDLB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PDLB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.97%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $22.68H $22.68L $22.44C $22.44VOL 247.4K

RES: $22.91SUP: $20.10SMA50: $20.54SMA200: $18.79

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PDLB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PDLB Butterfly Map → + Track PDLB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

13.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PDLB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PDLB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PDLB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PDLB)

Financials Rank #157 of 1097 ⚔️ NRIM vs PDLB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PDLB vs. NRIM, FMAO, KRNY, HTB)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) ranks #157 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #681 by equity capitalization ($544.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRIM leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while NRIM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PDLB currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PDLB ACTIVE Ponce Financial Group Inc.	C+	68/100	19.9x	—	5.1%	-0.22%	$544.0M	Benchmark Subject
NRIM Northrim BanCorp Inc	C	62/100	8.3x	—	19.8%	+1.72%	$530.5M	/nrim-vs-pdlb →
FMAO Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.	C+	68/100	15.3x	—	9.0%	+1.26%	$501.2M	/fmao-vs-pdlb →
KRNY Kearny Financial Corp	D+	54/100	23.0x	—	3.4%	+2.63%	$592.2M	/krny-vs-pdlb →
HTB HomeTrust Bancshares Inc.	C-	60/100	11.6x	—	10.7%	+2.46%	$732.8M	/htb-vs-pdlb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001874071 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.35B (+6.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.28B , and +1282.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $27.6M, operating cash flow of $55.6M, and free cash flow of $54.6M (+1115.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, PDLB closed FY2025 with $3.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.35B	$27.6M	$55.6M	$54.6M	$3.22B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.28B	$10.3M	$7.2M	$4.5M	$3.04B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$97.9M	$3.4M	$6.5M	$6.5M	—	—

3. PDLB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PDLB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does PDLB compare to NRIM and FMAO in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PDLB?

Where is PDLB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PDLB last traded at $22.44 (-0.22% on volume of 284,579 shares), positioning the stock +9.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.54) and +19.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.79). Across its 52-week range of $14.01 to $22.81, PDLB sits at the 95.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 74.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($21.54 to $23.34).

Direct Sub-Reports: PDLB RQD Cockpit PDLB 12M Forecast PDLB Earnings & Move PDLB Dividends & DRIP PDLB Insiders & 13F PDLB Whale Options PDLB Profit Sankey PDLB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PDLB — Ponce Financial Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 68/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $22.44 (-0.22% 1D, market capitalization $544.0M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 9.96%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Savings Institutions industry..5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) reported $1.35B in annual revenue (up from $1.28B in FY2024, +6.1% YoY) and $27.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($97.9M revenue, $3.4M net income) through FY2025, PDLB scaled operating cash flow to $55.6M and free cash flow to $54.6M, backed by $3.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 68/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.01 – $22.81 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 19.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level context provided is the Financials / Savings Institutions classification and the beta of 1.0, which indicates market-level sensitivity.

Key Question #1: Can PDLB sustain or expand its — operating margin and 5.1% ROIC against Savings Institutions peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.35B and free cash flow of $54.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is PDLB's 18.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PDLB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PDLB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Ponce Financial (PDLB) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Ponce Financial Group, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:PDLB

TradingView report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Ponce Financial (PDLB) a Solid Growth Stock? 3 Reasons to Think "Yes"

Yahoo Finance report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A one-time $10.5 million tax benefit helped Ponce Financial report $18.2 million in quarterly profit.

Stock Titan report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

Is Ponce Financial Group Inc (PDLB) Overvalued After 3.1% Rally?

GuruFocus report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Here's Why Ponce Financial Group (NASDAQ:PDLB) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors

Simply Wall St report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Ponce Financial (NASDAQ:PDLB) Posts a Big Quarterly Jump, but a Tax Benefit Did Some of the Work

kalkine.ca report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Ponce Financial: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Yahoo Finance report covering Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PDLB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PDLB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.11 (+25.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow reached $54.6M in FY 2025 against a 9.96% FCF yield, with net income rising from $3.4M in FY 2023 to $27.6M in FY 2025.

Don't sleep on PDLB's setup in Financials. Free cash flow reached $54.6M in FY 2025 against a 9.96% FCF yield, with net income rising from $3.4M in FY 2023 to $27.6M in FY 2025.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (68/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $22.49 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.77 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $22.49

Q3 earnings lagged estimates, and the $18.2 million quarterly profit was helped by a one-time $10.5 million tax benefit.

Fading this rally in PDLB at $22.49. Q3 earnings lagged estimates, and the $18.2 million quarterly profit was helped by a one-time $10.5 million tax benefit.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $22.49 (52-wk range $14.01–$22.81), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.