Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.8% Move

$33.93 -0.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.98

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (76% profit margin, 22% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $5.55B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PEGA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PEGA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Pegasystems Inc. (NASDAQ: PEGA) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $33.93 (-0.53% 1D, market cap $5.55B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, PEGA ranks #63 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PEGA compare to APLD and WAY in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), PEGA carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of 75.9%, and ROIC of 22.4%. By comparison, APLD (Applied Digital Corporation) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.7%, cap $5.39B) and WAY (Waystar Holding Corp.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 48.3x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $5.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEGA leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while PEGA leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PEGA?
▼

Per PEGA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001013857), Pegasystems Inc. generated $1.75B in revenue (+16.6% YoY), $393.4M in net income, and $490.7M in free cash flow against $1.63B in total assets and $380.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (76% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.98 (+0.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 28.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+
Cash (19)Whales (6)SEC (18)Macro (9)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target
$66 Bull$36 Base$28 Bear
📬 FREE PEGA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PEGA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PEGA SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 28.1% FCF Margin ($490.7M FCF) & 75.9% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$33.83+4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$35.18+0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$35.37-4.1% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$33.93+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PEGA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, PEGA faces multiple-compression risk if 14.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 73.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.30) or 200D SMA ($36.81) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.91) toward Bear Floor ($27.82).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PEGA• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PEGA Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.8% Swing Band

±$3.33 Expected Swing
$30.60 (-9.8%)Spot $33.93$37.26 (+9.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PEGA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 71/100

Trailing EPS: $2.40 • YoY Revenue Growth: 16.6%

Model Bullish Setup (71/100)Model Risk Weight (29/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.75B$393.4M$490.7M75.9%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.50B$99.2M$338.2M73.9%
FY 20232023-12-31$1.43B$67.8M$153.3M75.9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PEGA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PEGA
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
PEGA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.77%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $34.11H $34.11L $33.93C $33.93VOL 1.52M
RES: $37.01SUP: $32.76SMA50: $35.30SMA200: $36.81
$53.87$46.07$38.28$30.48$22.68RES $37.01SUP $32.76$33.932026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PEGA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PEGA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PEGA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PEGA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PEGA)

Technology Rank #63 of 714 ⚔️ APLD vs PEGA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (PEGA vs. APLD, WAY, PSN, BILI)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) ranks #63 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #202 by equity capitalization ($5.55B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PEGA leads on earnings valuation at 14.2x trailing P/E, while PEGA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and 75.9% gross margin. PEGA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PEGA ACTIVE
Pegasystems Inc.
B- 71/100 14.2x 75.9% 22.4% -0.53% $5.55B Benchmark Subject
APLD
Applied Digital Corporation
D- 37/100 — 35.1% -21.7% -8.22% $5.39B /apld-vs-pega →
WAY
Waystar Holding Corp.
C 63/100 48.3x — 3.7% -0.74% $5.37B /way-vs-pega →
PSN
Parsons Corporation
D+ 58/100 21.6x 22.5% 9.7% +2.76% $5.35B /psn-vs-pega →
BILI
Bilibili Inc.
D+ 53/100 31.4x 36.6% 10.9% -1.48% $5.28B /bili-vs-pega →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001013857

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.75B (+16.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.50B , and +21.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $393.4M, operating cash flow of $505.2M, and free cash flow of $490.7M (+45.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, PEGA closed FY2025 with $1.63B in total assets against $380.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.14, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.75B $393.4M $505.2M $490.7M $1.63B $380.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.50B $99.2M $345.9M $338.2M $1.77B $532.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.43B $67.8M $217.8M $153.3M $3.07B $718.5M

3. PEGA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PEGA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Pegasystems Inc. (NASDAQ: PEGA) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $33.93 (-0.53% 1D, market cap $5.55B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, PEGA ranks #63 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PEGA compare to APLD and WAY in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), PEGA carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of 75.9%, and ROIC of 22.4%. By comparison, APLD (Applied Digital Corporation) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.7%, cap $5.39B) and WAY (Waystar Holding Corp.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 48.3x, ROIC 3.7%, cap $5.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEGA leads on earnings multiple (14.2x) while PEGA leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PEGA?

Per PEGA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001013857), Pegasystems Inc. generated $1.75B in revenue (+16.6% YoY), $393.4M in net income, and $490.7M in free cash flow against $1.63B in total assets and $380.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (76% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PEGA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PEGA last traded at $33.93 (-0.53% on volume of 1,518,724 shares), positioning the stock -3.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($35.30) and -7.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($36.81). Across its 52-week range of $25.10 to $63.26, PEGA sits at the 23.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($30.60 to $37.26).

PEGA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is PEGA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is PEGA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.8% event move for PEGA, spanning a range between $30.6 and $37.26.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PEGA — Pegasystems Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:07Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PEGA scores 73 out of 100, grade B, labeled "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 19 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 22.4% and an FCF yield of 8.79%. For an investor, this is the strongest support in the score: the business is generating returns on capital and free cash flow well above what the balance sheet alone would suggest.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates the institutional signal is weak relative to the other pillars, so the stock is not drawing strong smart-money support in this dataset.
  • Insider Conviction: 19 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The high score points to meaningful insider-side signal, though the underlying trade-level detail is not included in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar is anchored by a beta of 1.17 and sector sensitivity. The middling score means the stock is more exposed to market swings than average, which matters for an investor sensitive to drawdowns.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects Altman Z of 6.14, Piotroski F of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.45. These are strong readings that suggest low near-term solvency risk.

Taken together, the score says the business quality and balance sheet are the core upside drivers, while the weakest areas are institutional flow and macro fit. The valuation tradeoff is that the forward P/E of 11.9 sits well below the EV/EBITDA of 20.8, so the market multiple picture is mixed and an investor should weigh cash-generation quality against the higher-beta exposure. This is an analytical read of the rating, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$34.11$5.58B14.211.920.82.40.28%1.17$25.1 - $63.9722.4%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1745.8M$263.1M$393.4MN/A$490.7M$212.4M$380.0M
FY 2024$1497.2M$123.9M$99.2MN/A$338.2M$337.1M$532.3M
FY 2023$1432.6M$81.0M$67.8MN/A$153.3MN/A$718.5M

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $1432.6M in FY 2023 to $1745.8M in FY 2025, and net income rose from $67.8M to $393.4M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 75.9%, operating margin 15.1%, and net margin 22.5%, with ROIC of 22.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 6.14 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9. Debt fell from $718.5M in FY 2023 to $380.0M in FY 2025, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.45.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, the wire contains five items on PEGA:

  • Green / CATALYST: "Why Are Pegasystems (PEGA) Shares Soaring Today" (Yahoo Finance, 1h ago).
  • Red / RISK WATCH: "Why Pegasystems Stock Dropped After Earnings" (The Motley Fool, 3h ago).
  • Yellow / MARKET WIRE: "Pegasystems: AI Isn't Driving New Wins For This Company" (Seeking Alpha, 6h ago).
  • Red / RISK WATCH: "Pegasystems (PEGA) Misses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates" (Yahoo Finance, 9h ago).
  • Yellow / MARKET WIRE: "Pegasystems (NasdaqGS:PEGA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions" (Simply Wall St, 12h ago).
  • Red / RISK WATCH: "Pegasystems (NASDAQ:PEGA) Stock Price Target Cut by Citigroup" (MarketBeat, 15h ago).

The headlines are mixed: one catalyst item sits against three risk-watch items, and the earnings-miss and price-target-cut headlines are the most direct negative signals. The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue model, given that the business description is not in the source data?
  • What drove the FY 2024 to FY 2025 jump in net income from $99.2M to $393.4M, and how much of it is recurring?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A for every period, and how does that reconcile with the stated EPS (TTM) of 2.4?
  • What do the institutional and insider trades behind the 7/20 whale and 19/20 insider pillar scores actually consist of?
  • What is the basis for the earnings-miss and price-target-cut headlines, and do they change the forward valuation view?

PEGA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PEGA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PEGA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $33.93?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PEGA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PEGA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $40.25 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PEGA (B • RQD 73/100) a Buy at $34.11?

Welcome to the PEGA (Pegasystems Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 73/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in EDP Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.29 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $34.11

Pump the brakes on PEGA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PEGA, but look at what you are paying: 14.2x trailing P/E with 75.9% gross margins. Unless Pegasystems Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $40.25 (+18.0%)
Spot @ $34.11

PEGA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PEGA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in EDP Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $34.11 (52-wk range $25.10 - $63.97), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%