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Penumbra Inc. (PEN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$321.34 +0.75% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $321.16

Penumbra Inc. (PEN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $12.57B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PEN Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PEN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Penumbra Inc. (NYSE: PEN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $321.34 (+0.75% 1D, market cap $12.57B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, PEN ranks #185 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PEN compare to BAX and SOLV in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), PEN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 71.4x, gross margin of 67.1%, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, BAX (Baxter International Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.4%, cap $11.90B) and SOLV (Solventum Corporation) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 9.1x, ROIC 18.7%, cap $13.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SOLV leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while SOLV leads on capital efficiency (18.7% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PEN?
β–Ό

Per PEN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001321732), Penumbra Inc. generated $1.40B in revenue (+17.5% YoY), $177.7M in net income, and $174.9M in free cash flow against $1.83B in total assets and $179.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $321.18 (-0.05%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 12.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 52.2% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ Β· Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (11)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$381 Bull$320 Base$250 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE PEN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PEN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY PEN SCORES 57/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 21.05 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 9/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.5% FCF Margin ($174.9M FCF) & 67.1% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$320.12+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
52
Grade C-$323.56-1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$318.31+1% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$321.34-0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (49) β†’ D+ (57)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PEN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, PEN faces multiple-compression risk if 71.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($320.30) or 200D SMA ($327.02) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($319.89) toward Bear Floor ($249.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PENβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œPEN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±1.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (PEN)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for PEN.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PEN)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of PEN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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PEN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.02%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $322.0H $322.0L $319.0C $321.3VOL 497.8K
RES: $325.1SUP: $316.4SMA50: $320.3SMA200: $327.0
$336.4$325.3$314.3$303.3$292.3RES $325.1SUP $316.4$321.32026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PEN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ PEN Butterfly Map β†’ + Track PEN β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
46.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PEN today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PEN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PEN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PEN)

Health Care Rank #185 of 1015 βš”οΈ BAX vs PEN Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (PEN vs. BAX, SOLV, GKOS, GMED)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Penumbra Inc. (PEN) ranks #185 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #88 by equity capitalization ($12.57B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SOLV leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while SOLV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.7% ROIC and 53.5% gross margin. GMED currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with PEN at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PEN ACTIVE
Penumbra Inc.
D+ 57/100 71.4x 67.1% 10.6% +0.75% $12.57B Benchmark Subject
BAX
Baxter International Inc.
D 50/100 β€” 30.1% -2.4% +5.30% $11.90B /bax-vs-pen β†’
SOLV
Solventum Corporation
D 44/100 9.1x 53.5% 18.7% +4.21% $13.84B /solv-vs-pen β†’
GKOS
Glaukos Corporation
D+ 57/100 β€” 55.7% -13.7% +0.43% $14.07B /gkos-vs-pen β†’
GMED
Globus Medical Inc.
C+ 69/100 20.7x 67.4% 8.7% +1.81% $10.48B /gmed-vs-pen β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001321732 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Penumbra Inc. (PEN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.40B (+17.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.19B , and +32.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $177.7M, operating cash flow of $238.7M, and free cash flow of $174.9M (+18.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, PEN closed FY2025 with $1.83B in total assets against $179.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 21.05, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.40B $177.7M $238.7M $174.9M $1.83B $179.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.19B $14.0M $168.5M $147.3M $1.53B $172.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.06B $91.0M $97.3M $49.7M $6.98B $1.63B

3. PEN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PEN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Penumbra Inc. (NYSE: PEN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $321.34 (+0.75% 1D, market cap $12.57B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, PEN ranks #185 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PEN compare to BAX and SOLV in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), PEN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 71.4x, gross margin of 67.1%, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, BAX (Baxter International Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.4%, cap $11.90B) and SOLV (Solventum Corporation) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 9.1x, ROIC 18.7%, cap $13.84B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SOLV leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while SOLV leads on capital efficiency (18.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PEN?

Per PEN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001321732), Penumbra Inc. generated $1.40B in revenue (+17.5% YoY), $177.7M in net income, and $174.9M in free cash flow against $1.83B in total assets and $179.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PEN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PEN last traded at $321.34 (+0.75% on volume of 463,641 shares), positioning the stock +0.32% above its 50-day simple moving average ($320.30) and -1.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($327.02). Across its 52-week range of $221.26 to $362.41, PEN sits at the 70.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±1.8% ($315.56 to $327.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: PEN RQD Cockpit PEN 12M Forecast PEN Earnings & Move PEN Dividends & DRIP PEN Insiders & 13F PEN Whale Options PEN Profit Sankey PEN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 57/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PEN β€” Penumbra Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Penumbra Inc. (PEN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $321.34 (+0.75% 1D, market capitalization $12.57B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.6%, gross margin of 67.1%, operating margin of 13.5%, and free cash flow yield of 1.38%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.91x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 21.05, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.12x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Penumbra Inc. (PEN) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Medical/Dental Instruments industry. β€” for detailed product and customer description. The company's reported revenue, gross margin of 67.1%, and operating margin of 13.5% are presented in the sections below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Penumbra Inc. (PEN) reported $1.40B in annual revenue (up from $1.19B in FY2024, +17.5% YoY) and $177.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.06B revenue, $91.0M net income) through FY2025, PEN scaled operating cash flow to $238.7M and free cash flow to $174.9M, backed by $1.83B in total assets against $179.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 57/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 1.38% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $221.26 – $362.41 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 71.4x trailing P/E and 52.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.5% operating margins and a 0.91x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Medical/Dental Instruments (Health Care), PEN carries a macro regime beta of 0.91 and gross margin of 67.1%.

  • Key Question #1: Can PEN sustain or expand its 13.5% operating margin and 10.6% ROIC against Medical/Dental Instruments peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.40B and free cash flow of $174.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $179.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PEN's 60.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.91x)?

PEN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Penumbra Inc. (PEN) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to PEN Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PEN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $321.34?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PEN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PEN:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $385.93 (+21.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with Altman Z 21.05, Piotroski F 9/9, and Debt/Equity 0.12, and revenue grew from $1.06B in FY 20

Forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with Altman Z 21.05, Piotroski F 9/9, and Debt/Equity 0.12, and revenue grew from $1.06B in FY 2023 to $1.40B in FY 2025.. When you look under the hood at PEN, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 67.1% gross margins and 10.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $362.41. My 12M target is $385.93.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 57/100 quality, though with 0.91 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $318.95 and keeping dry powder in case we test $296.62.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $267.92 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $318.95

A P/E of 71.4 and FCF yield of 1.38% leave the stock richly valued, while insider conviction scores only 8/20.

Careful chasing PEN at $318.95. A P/E of 71.4 and FCF yield of 1.38% leave the stock richly valued, while insider conviction scores only 8/20.. Gross margin is 67.1%, but operating margin is 13.5%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $267.92 on multiple compression.

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