Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$22.94 -0.99% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.86

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.02B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PFS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Provident Financial Services Inc (NYSE: PFS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $22.94 (-0.99% 1D, market cap $3.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PFS ranks #185 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PFS compare to BKU and CLBK in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PFS carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, BKU (BankUnited Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $3.09B) and CLBK (Columbia Financial Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while PFS leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PFS?
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Per PFS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001178970), Provident Financial Services Inc generated $73.1M in revenue (+7.1% YoY), $291.0M in net income, and $430.7M in free cash flow against $24.98B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.86 (-0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 589.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C+
Cash (12)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$28 Bull$24 Base$19 Bear
📬 FREE PFS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PFS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PFS SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$22.14-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$22.11+5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$23.22-1.2% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$22.94+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PFS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, PFS faces multiple-compression risk if 10.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.86) or 200D SMA ($22.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.97) toward Bear Floor ($18.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PFS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PFS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

PFS Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (PFS)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on PFS. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PFS Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
PFS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.10%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $23.12H $23.17L $22.94C $22.94VOL 770.9K
RES: $23.43SUP: $21.22SMA50: $22.86SMA200: $22.65
$25.86$24.34$22.82$21.30$19.78RES $23.43SUP $21.22$22.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PFS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-0.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PFS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PFS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PFS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PFS)

Financials Rank #185 of 1096 ⚔️ BKU vs PFS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PFS vs. BKU, CLBK, TFSL, EBC)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) ranks #185 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #366 by equity capitalization ($3.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PFS leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while PFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with PFS at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PFS ACTIVE
Provident Financial Services Inc
C+ 68/100 10.4x — 10.3% -0.99% $3.02B Benchmark Subject
BKU
BankUnited Inc.
D+ 54/100 11.5x — 8.8% -0.92% $3.09B /bku-vs-pfs →
CLBK
Columbia Financial Inc.
D+ 52/100 — — — +2.89% $2.89B /clbk-vs-pfs →
TFSL
TFS Financial Corporation
D+ 52/100 51.7x — 4.8% -1.97% $4.70B /tfsl-vs-pfs →
EBC
Eastern Bankshares Inc.
C+ 69/100 58.6x — 0.7% -1.10% $5.17B /ebc-vs-pfs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001178970

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) reported GAAP revenue of $73.1M (+7.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $68.3M , and +27.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $291.0M, operating cash flow of $442.3M, and free cash flow of $430.7M (+1.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, PFS closed FY2025 with $24.98B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $73.1M $291.0M $442.3M $430.7M $24.98B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $68.3M $116.0M $426.4M $425.1M $24.05B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $57.5M $128.0M $173.4M $173.4M — —

3. PFS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Provident Financial Services Inc (NYSE: PFS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $22.94 (-0.99% 1D, market cap $3.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PFS ranks #185 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PFS compare to BKU and CLBK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PFS carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, BKU (BankUnited Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $3.09B) and CLBK (Columbia Financial Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while PFS leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PFS?

Per PFS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001178970), Provident Financial Services Inc generated $73.1M in revenue (+7.1% YoY), $291.0M in net income, and $430.7M in free cash flow against $24.98B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PFS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PFS last traded at $22.94 (-0.99% on volume of 955,976 shares), positioning the stock +0.35% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.86) and +1.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.65). Across its 52-week range of $17.71 to $25.49, PFS sits at the 67.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($22.11 to $23.77).

PFS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are PFS insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies PFS leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PFS — Provident Financial Services Inc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:22Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PFS scores 68 out of 100 with a letter grade of C+, labeled "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 (ROIC 10.3%; FCF yield 14.25%), Whale 13F Flow at 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 14/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is insider conviction, which is the only pillar above 80% of its maximum. The weakest relative pillar is the Fundamental Cash Engine, where the reported FCF yield is high but the pillar score is held down by the reported ROIC level. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a neutral near-term posture with an identified breakout watch rather than a clear conviction setup. The FCF yield figure is an upside driver if it persists, but it sits alongside a reported net margin figure and revenue figures that are not directly comparable across periods in the source data, so the cash-generation case should be verified before it is relied upon. Valuation signals (P/E 10.4 TTM, forward P/E 9.7) are moderate and do not on their own indicate a deep discount.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$73.1M$0.0M$291.0MN/A$430.7M$209.1MN/A
FY 2024$68.3M$0.0M$116.0MN/A$425.1M$205.9MN/A
FY 2023$57.5M$0.0M$128.0MN/A$173.4MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $116.0M in FY 2024 to $291.0M in FY 2025, while reported FCF moved from $425.1M to $430.7M over the same period. Per the market data, the net margin is listed as 68%, while gross and operating margins are each listed as 0%, which does not reconcile with the reported revenue and income figures and should be treated with caution. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 10.3% and the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Debt figures are not reported in the financials, so the balance sheet posture relies on the rating's forensic inputs rather than line-item debt.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific drivers behind the reported jump in net income from $116.0M to $291.0M between FY 2024 and FY 2025?
  • Why are gross and operating margins listed as 0% while net margin is listed as 68%, and which figure reflects the true profitability profile?
  • What is the reported debt level, given that debt is N/A across all periods?
  • What were the actual Q3 2026 results and guidance, as opposed to the headline characterizations?
  • Who are the specific insiders and 13F holders behind the pillar scores for insider conviction and whale flow?

PFS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PFS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PFS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.94?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PFS 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PFS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $25.02 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PFS (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $23.17?

Welcome to the PFS (Provident Financial Services Inc) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Savings Institutions. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.84 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $23.17

Pump the brakes on PFS — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PFS, but look at what you are paying: 10.4x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Provident Financial Services Inc expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.88 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $23.17

PFS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PFS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Savings Institutions and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $23.17 (52-wk range $17.71 - $25.49), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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