Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 23/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 23/100 at a spot price of $16.30 (+1.24% 1D, market cap $1.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RARE ranks #943 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), RARE carries a Roarable E (23/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NBTX (Nanobiotix S.A.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.59B) and PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $1.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while PAHC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
Per RARE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001515673), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $673.0M in revenue (+20.2% YoY), -$575.0M in net income, and -$472.0M in free cash flow against $1.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.2% realized swing band)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 13% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While RARE currently carries a cautious 23/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.64) and Max Pain ($17.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $41.88.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) advanced +1.24% to $16.30, trading at 13% of its 52-week range ($12.73 – $39.89). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocktwits report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Pharmaceutical Executive report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Is RARE a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. on r/ValueInvesting by u/Tallwhitedude123. Since the thesis was published on August 30th, RARE shares have pulled back as a k
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/triheptanoin-dojolvi-approved-to-treat-adults-and-children-with-a-group-of-rare-inherited-disorders
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +20.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RARE today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RARE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) ranks #943 by composite RQD confidence (23/100, grade E) and #293 by equity capitalization ($1.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAHC leads on earnings valuation at 32.7x trailing P/E, while PAHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and 30.9% gross margin. PAHC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with RARE at 23/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RARE
ACTIVE
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | E | 23/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.24% | $1.59B | Benchmark Subject |
| NBTX Nanobiotix S.A. | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -10.39% | $1.59B | /nbtx-vs-rare → |
| PAHC Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A) | D+ | 56/100 | 32.7x | 30.9% | 9.9% | -0.36% | $1.58B | /pahc-vs-rare → |
| URGN UroGen Pharma Ltd. | E | 24/100 | — | 88.7% | -35.0% | +5.01% | $1.60B | /urgn-vs-rare → |
| CMPS COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -27.31% | $1.60B | /cmps-vs-rare → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) reported GAAP revenue of $673.0M (+20.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $560.0M , and +55.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$575.0M, operating cash flow of -$466.0M, and free cash flow of -$472.0M (-12.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RARE closed FY2025 with $1.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $673.0M | -$575.0M | -$466.0M | -$472.0M | $1.53B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $560.0M | -$569.0M | -$414.0M | -$421.0M | $1.50B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $434.0M | -$607.0M | -$475.0M | -$475.0M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ: RARE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 23/100 at a spot price of $16.30 (+1.24% 1D, market cap $1.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RARE ranks #943 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), RARE carries a Roarable E (23/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NBTX (Nanobiotix S.A.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.59B) and PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $1.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAHC leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while PAHC leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
Per RARE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001515673), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. generated $673.0M in revenue (+20.2% YoY), -$575.0M in net income, and -$472.0M in free cash flow against $1.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
RARE last traded at $16.30 (+1.24% on volume of 4,843,494 shares), positioning the stock -2.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.64) and -28.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($22.83). Across its 52-week range of $12.73 to $39.89, RARE sits at the 13.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($14.64 to $17.96).
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 23/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $16.30 (+1.24% 1D, market capitalization $1.59B).
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Specific products, customers, and revenue mechanics are not detailed in the source data. The company reports revenue of $673.0M for FY 2025 .
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) reported $673.0M in annual revenue (up from $560.0M in FY2024, +20.2% YoY) and -$575.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($434.0M revenue, -$607.0M net income) through FY2025, RARE scaled operating cash flow to -$466.0M and free cash flow to -$472.0M, backed by $1.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
There are no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals in the source data. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stocktwits report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Pharmaceutical Executive report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Long RARE at $16.10 targeting $21.25. Revenue grew from $434.0M in FY 2023 to $673.0M in FY 2025 and the company is selling a priority review voucher for $210 Million.. Institutional whale score is 6/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $12.73 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.
@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
Fading this rally in RARE at $16.10. Free cash flow was -$472.0M in FY 2025, ROIC is -35%, and the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 per the RQD rating.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $16.10 (52-wk range $12.73–$39.89), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.
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