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Why REPX Stock slipped -1.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$46.93 -1.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.91

Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 73/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $1.06B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REPX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (NYSE: REPX) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $46.93 (-1.53% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, REPX ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REPX compare to TBN and HPK in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), REPX carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.2%. By comparison, TBN (Tamboran Resources Corporation) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.1%, cap $1.03B) and HPK (HighPeak Energy Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.6%, cap $1.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, REPX leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while REPX leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPX?
▼

Per REPX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001001614), Riley Exploration Permian Inc. generated $392.0M in revenue (-4.4% YoY), $160.8M in net income, and $212.5M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $227.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.91 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 54.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 73/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510073
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk B-
Cash (11)Whales (16)SEC (11)Macro (17)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.8% Base Target
$59 Bull$50 Base$38 Bear
📬 FREE REPX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REPX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (73/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY REPX SCORES 73/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 75% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$46.43+4.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$48.34+7.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
70
Grade B$52.11-9.9% Next Q
Current
73
Grade B$46.93+7.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → B (73)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the REPX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 73/100 (B) score, REPX faces multiple-compression risk if 7.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($44.77) or 200D SMA ($36.54) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($50.10) toward Bear Floor ($38.48).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REPX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “REPX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 73%NO 27%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why REPX Stock slipped -1.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) slipped -1.53% to $46.93, trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($24.08 – $54.57). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($24.08 – $54.57) with RSI-14 at 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.8% around $46.93 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $212.5M annual free cash flow.
Live REPX Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 6d ago
1 value stock to target this week and 2 we turn down

The low valuation multiples for value stocks provide a margin of safety that growth stocks rarely offer. However, the challenge lies in determining whether these cheap assets are genuinely undervalued or simply on sale d

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (REPX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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REPX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.35%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $53.27H $53.27L $46.93C $46.93VOL 426.2K
RES: $56.10SUP: $34.11SMA50: $44.77SMA200: $36.54
$56.36$48.94$41.51$34.08$26.66RES $56.10SUP $34.11$46.932026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REPX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REPX Butterfly Map → + Track REPX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-7.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REPX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REPX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REPX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REPX)

Energy Rank #22 of 211 ⚔️ TBN vs REPX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (REPX vs. TBN, HPK, SBR, BORR)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) ranks #22 by composite RQD confidence (73/100, grade B) and #135 by equity capitalization ($1.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REPX leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while REPX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. REPX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 73/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
REPX ACTIVE
Riley Exploration Permian Inc.
B 73/100 7.2x — 12.2% -1.53% $1.06B Benchmark Subject
TBN
Tamboran Resources Corporation
D- 37/100 — — -10.1% -1.29% $1.03B /tbn-vs-repx →
HPK
HighPeak Energy Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — 4.6% -0.46% $1.10B /hpk-vs-repx →
SBR
Sabine Royalty Trust
D 49/100 — — — -0.92% $1.01B /sbr-vs-repx →
BORR
Borr Drilling Limited
D 50/100 27.8x — 8.9% -5.98% $1.13B /borr-vs-repx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001001614 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) reported GAAP revenue of $392.0M (-4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $410.2M , and +4.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $160.8M, operating cash flow of $212.5M, and free cash flow of $212.5M (-13.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, REPX closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $227.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.33, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $392.0M $160.8M $212.5M $212.5M $1.17B $227.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $410.2M $88.9M $246.3M $246.3M $993.5M $249.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $375.0M $111.6M $207.2M $207.2M — —

3. REPX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REPX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (NYSE: REPX) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 73/100 at a spot price of $46.93 (-1.53% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, REPX ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REPX compare to TBN and HPK in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), REPX carries a Roarable B (73/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.2%. By comparison, TBN (Tamboran Resources Corporation) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.1%, cap $1.03B) and HPK (HighPeak Energy Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.6%, cap $1.10B). Among the 5-stock peer group, REPX leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while REPX leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPX?

Per REPX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001001614), Riley Exploration Permian Inc. generated $392.0M in revenue (-4.4% YoY), $160.8M in net income, and $212.5M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $227.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REPX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REPX last traded at $46.93 (-1.53% on volume of 229,775 shares), positioning the stock +4.82% above its 50-day simple moving average ($44.77) and +28.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.54). Across its 52-week range of $24.08 to $54.57, REPX sits at the 74.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.8% ($43.27 to $50.59).

Direct Sub-Reports: REPX RQD Cockpit REPX 12M Forecast REPX Earnings & Move REPX Dividends & DRIP REPX Insiders & 13F REPX Whale Options REPX Profit Sankey REPX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 73/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

REPX — Riley Exploration Permian Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 73/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $46.93 (-1.53% 1D, market capitalization $1.06B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 34.0%, and free cash flow yield of 18.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.33, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.36x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry. The profile identifies the company's market capitalization as $1.2B. Specific product lines, customers, and revenue mechanics are — Gross margin is reported as 0%, operating margin as 34%, and net margin as 41% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) reported $392.0M in annual revenue (up from $410.2M in FY2024, -4.4% YoY) and $160.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($375.0M revenue, $111.6M net income) through FY2025, REPX scaled operating cash flow to $212.5M and free cash flow to $212.5M, backed by $1.17B in total assets against $227.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 73/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $24.08 – $54.57 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 7.2x trailing P/E and 10.4x EV/EBITDA against 34.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), REPX carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can REPX sustain or expand its 34.0% operating margin and 12.2% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $392.0M and free cash flow of $212.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $227.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is REPX's 6.7x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

REPX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to REPX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

REPX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $46.93?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON REPX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on REPX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $67.65 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

An 18.41% FCF yield paired with 18/20 insider conviction and 7.2x trailing P/E suggests cash generation may be undervalued.

An 18.41% FCF yield paired with 18/20 insider conviction and 7.2x trailing P/E suggests cash generation may be undervalued.. When you look under the hood at REPX, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 12.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (16/20) has been quietly accumulating below $54.57. My 12M target is $67.65.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — REPX's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $43.15 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $53.27

A 1.0 beta, a 11/20 forensic balance sheet score, and cash balances reported as N/A leave the cash-return case unverified.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on REPX: A 1.0 beta, a 11/20 forensic balance sheet score, and cash balances reported as N/A leave the cash-return case unverified.. At 7.2x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Oil & Gas Production triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE