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RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$29.09 +2.72% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.18

RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $216.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RICK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $29.09 (+2.72% 1D, market cap $216.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RICK ranks #470 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RICK compare to JACK and RRGB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), RICK carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, JACK (Jack In The Box Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $249.6M) and RRGB (Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.7%, cap $172.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PTLO leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while RRGB leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RICK?
▼

Per RICK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000935419), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. generated $279.4M in revenue (-5.5% YoY), $10.8M in net income, and $49.4M in free cash flow against $590.3M in total assets and $222.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.18 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 17.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (12)SEC (7)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$34 Bull$29 Base$22 Bear
📬 FREE RICK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RICK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RICK SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 13 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$26.44-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$26.26+5.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$27.72+4.9% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$29.09-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RICK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RICK currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($27.76) and Max Pain ($30.54) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RICK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RICK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RICK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $29.09: 343.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $22.28
$7,659
$-2,341 (-23.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $28.57
$9,821
$-179 (-1.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $33.71
$11,588
+$1,588 (+15.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$3269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$2558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RICK)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RICK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RICK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.36%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $28.33H $29.09L $28.32C $29.09VOL 36.1K
RES: $35.86SUP: $25.23SMA50: $27.76SMA200: $25.81
$32.61$30.09$27.58$25.06$22.55RES $35.86SUP $25.23$29.092026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RICK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RICK Butterfly Map → + Track RICK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RICK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RICK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RICK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RICK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #470 of 1009 ⚔️ JACK vs RICK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RICK vs. JACK, RRGB, PLAY, PTLO)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) ranks #470 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #680 by equity capitalization ($216.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PTLO leads on earnings valuation at 17.9x trailing P/E, while RRGB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.7% ROIC and — gross margin. RRGB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with RICK at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RICK ACTIVE
RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc.
D+ 54/100 20.0x — 5.6% +2.72% $216.5M Benchmark Subject
JACK
Jack In The Box Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% +6.03% $249.6M /jack-vs-rick →
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — 5.7% +0.33% $172.2M /rrgb-vs-rick →
PLAY
Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc.
E 28/100 — 85.7% 4.3% +8.69% $272.7M /play-vs-rick →
PTLO
Portillo's Inc. (Class A)
D- 42/100 17.9x — 4.9% +6.37% $369.8M /ptlo-vs-rick →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000935419 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) reported GAAP revenue of $279.4M (-5.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $295.6M , and -4.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $10.8M, operating cash flow of $49.4M, and free cash flow of $49.4M (-11.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, RICK closed FY2025 with $590.3M in total assets against $222.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.44, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $279.4M $10.8M $49.4M $49.4M $590.3M $222.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $295.6M $3.0M $55.9M $55.9M $586.2M $217.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $293.8M $29.1M $59.1M $59.1M — —

3. RICK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RICK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $29.09 (+2.72% 1D, market cap $216.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RICK ranks #470 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RICK compare to JACK and RRGB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), RICK carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, JACK (Jack In The Box Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $249.6M) and RRGB (Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.7%, cap $172.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PTLO leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while RRGB leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RICK?

Per RICK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000935419), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. generated $279.4M in revenue (-5.5% YoY), $10.8M in net income, and $49.4M in free cash flow against $590.3M in total assets and $222.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RICK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RICK last traded at $29.09 (+2.72% on volume of 64,235 shares), positioning the stock +4.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.76) and +12.71% above its 200-day simple moving average ($25.81). Across its 52-week range of $20.76 to $32.00, RICK sits at the 74.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($27.23 to $30.95).

Direct Sub-Reports: RICK RQD Cockpit RICK 12M Forecast RICK Earnings & Move RICK Dividends & DRIP RICK Insiders & 13F RICK Whale Options RICK Profit Sankey RICK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RICK — RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $29.09 (+2.72% 1D, market capitalization $216.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 10.8%, and free cash flow yield of 22.82%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.44, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.95x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry. The profile describes the company as operating in Restaurants with a market capitalization of $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) reported $279.4M in annual revenue (up from $295.6M in FY2024, -5.5% YoY) and $10.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($293.8M revenue, $29.1M net income) through FY2025, RICK scaled operating cash flow to $49.4M and free cash flow to $49.4M, backed by $590.3M in total assets against $222.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 22.82% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $20.76 – $32.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 20.0x trailing P/E and 13.5x EV/EBITDA against 10.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is NONE, with an empty list of butterfly links. Upstream supplier and downstream customer dependencies are — Sector correlation data beyond the Consumer Discretionary / Restaurants classification is — Second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can RICK sustain or expand its 10.8% operating margin and 5.6% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $279.4M and free cash flow of $49.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $222.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RICK's 18.6x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RICK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RICK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RICK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RICK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RICK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $34.55 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 22.82% FCF yield and 18.6 forward P/E give the stock a cash-generation profile that could support upside if the cash engine holds.

Picked up a starter position in RICK in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $28.32. A 22.82% FCF yield and 18.6 forward P/E give the stock a cash-generation profile that could support upside if the cash engine holds.. Trading inside a $20.76–$32.00 52-week range with 22.82% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Restaurants multiples expand this quarter.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 20.0x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Restaurants. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.09 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $28.32

Altman Z of 1.44, Debt/Equity of 0.95, and ROIC of 5.6% against $222.0M of debt point to a stressed balance sheet and weak returns on c

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on RICK: Altman Z of 1.44, Debt/Equity of 0.95, and ROIC of 5.6% against $222.0M of debt point to a stressed balance sheet and weak returns on capital.. At 20.0x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Restaurants triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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