Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 26/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-02, Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $12.16 (+6.20% 1D, market cap $16.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RIVN ranks #931 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Manufacturing), RIVN carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 2.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, STLA (Stellantis N.V.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $13.62B) and LI (Li Auto Inc.) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $10.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSK leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while OSK leads on capital efficiency (14.4% ROIC).
Per RIVN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001874178), Rivian Automotive Inc. generated $5.39B in revenue (+8.4% YoY), -$3.65B in net income, and -$2.49B in free cash flow against $14.86B in total assets and $4.44B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 0.45 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.7% realized swing band)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (31.6) create a -16 pt regime headwind
While RIVN currently carries a cautious 26/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.31) and Max Pain ($12.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.82.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) surged +6.20% to $12.16, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($11.38 – $22.69). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CNBC report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
UBS believes automotive gross margins should improve as R2 production ramps up, according to The Fly.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +8.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RIVN today. View full Setup Ledger →
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) ranks #931 by composite RQD confidence (26/100, grade E) and #115 by equity capitalization ($16.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OSK leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while OSK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.4% ROIC and 17.5% gross margin. OSK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with RIVN at 26/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIVN
ACTIVE
Rivian Automotive Inc. | E | 26/100 | — | 2.7% | -35.0% | +6.20% | $16.58B | Benchmark Subject |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | D+ | 55/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | -1.28% | $13.62B | /stla-vs-rivn → |
| LI Li Auto Inc. | E | 18/100 | — | 18.7% | -2.1% | -0.99% | $10.89B | /li-vs-rivn → |
| XPEV XPeng Inc. American | D+ | 52/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | -1.52% | $8.80B | /xpev-vs-rivn → |
| OSK Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Company) | C | 64/100 | 11.4x | 17.5% | 14.4% | +3.45% | $8.35B | /osk-vs-rivn → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) reported GAAP revenue of $5.39B (+8.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.97B , and +21.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$3.65B, operating cash flow of -$779.0M, and free cash flow of -$2.49B (+12.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, RIVN closed FY2025 with $14.86B in total assets against $4.44B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.45, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $5.39B | -$3.65B | -$779.0M | -$2.49B | $14.86B | $4.44B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.97B | -$4.75B | -$1.72B | -$2.86B | $15.41B | $4.44B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.43B | -$5.43B | -$4.87B | -$5.07B | $9.12B | $2.13B |
As of 2026-11-02, Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 26/100 at a spot price of $12.16 (+6.20% 1D, market cap $16.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RIVN ranks #931 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Manufacturing), RIVN carries a Roarable E (26/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 2.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, STLA (Stellantis N.V.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $13.62B) and LI (Li Auto Inc.) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $10.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OSK leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while OSK leads on capital efficiency (14.4% ROIC).
Per RIVN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001874178), Rivian Automotive Inc. generated $5.39B in revenue (+8.4% YoY), -$3.65B in net income, and -$2.49B in free cash flow against $14.86B in total assets and $4.44B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
RIVN last traded at $12.16 (+6.20% on volume of 62,702,248 shares), positioning the stock -15.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.31) and -21.09% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.41). Across its 52-week range of $11.38 to $22.69, RIVN sits at the 6.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.6 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($11.22 to $13.10).
Why RIVN Stock surged +6.20% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
The Roarable RQD rating is 26 out of 100, letter grade E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." Per the Roarable RQD rating, the five pillars score as follows:
For a prospective investor, the rating's combination of negative returns on capital, negative free cash flow yield, and a low Altman Z reading signals elevated financial-distress risk. Per the financials, the company reported operating losses in each of the three listed fiscal periods. The primary upside driver implied by the source data is a potential improvement in per-vehicle economics and R2 volume, referenced in the catalyst section, but the rating does not treat these as yet reflected in reported results. Valuation is a tradeoff: the forward P/E of 21 is presented alongside negative trailing EPS of -2.52, so the forward multiple depends on earnings expectations that the source data does not quantify. This is an educational assessment, not personalized financial advice.
Rivian Automotive Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Auto Manufacturing industry, per the profile. Per the profile, the company has a market capitalization of $16.6B. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the company is positioned in the EV theme, with the R2 midsize SUV cited as its upcoming volume product in the news wire. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue mix beyond this are not available in source data.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $5387.0M | $-3585.0M | $-3646.0M | N/A | $-2489.0M | $3579.0M | $4440.0M |
| FY 2024 | $4970.0M | $-4689.0M | $-4747.0M | N/A | $-2857.0M | $5294.0M | $4441.0M |
| FY 2023 | $4434.0M | $-5739.0M | $-5432.0M | N/A | $-5065.5M | N/A | $2133.6M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $4434.0M (FY 2023) to $5387.0M (FY 2025) while operating losses narrowed from $-5739.0M to $-3585.0M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 2.7%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%. Per the RQD rating, ROIC is -35%, the Altman Z-Score is 0.45, and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Per the RQD rating, Debt/Equity is 0.97. Per the SEC financials, cash declined from $5294.0M (FY 2024) to $3579.0M (FY 2025) while debt was $4440.0M in FY 2025.
Per the news wire, six items are listed, including two tagged CATALYST (a Yahoo Finance-sourced comparison of margins and the R2 midsize SUV, and an upgrade note on the R2) and a CNBC report that third-quarter earnings beat estimates as software revenue and R2 deliveries rose. Four items are tagged MARKET WIRE, including valuation-focused pieces asking whether the stock is cheap or overvalued after fresh funding news. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the single link is a POTENTIAL_LOSER relationship from TSLA to RIVN, classified as ANALYST_HYPOTHESIS, with a HEADWIND direction effect. The mechanism cited is a pricing ceiling from Tesla's scale and financing promotions, along with fixed-cost pressure at the Normal, IL plant and tightening of federal EV consumer lease credits. The competing explanation cited is the $5.8B Volkswagen electrical-architecture software joint venture and DOE loan commitments. The next catalyst identified is quarterly gross profit per vehicle delivered and R2 production tooling milestones. Proprietary signals: none listed.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain field is NONE and no upstream or downstream supplier names are provided in the source data. The sector is Consumer Discretionary and the industry is Auto Manufacturing. The one sector link in the graph is the TSLA-to-RIVN pricing headwind described above. A prospective investor should watch whether pricing pressure from the larger EV manufacturer persists into R2 launch volumes, and whether changes to federal EV credits alter demand for the company's vehicles. The source data does not identify specific upstream suppliers, battery or component dependencies, or downstream dealer and fleet channels, so those second-order bottlenecks cannot be assessed from the provided material.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CNBC report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the RIVN (Rivian Automotive Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 26/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Auto Manufacturing. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on RIVN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 2.7% gross margins. Unless Rivian Automotive Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on RIVN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto Manufacturing and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.45 (52-wk range $11.38 - $22.69), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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