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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / RJET / options
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Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$19.64 +1.66% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $904.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RJET stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $19.64 (+1.66% 1D, market cap $904.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RJET ranks #631 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RJET compare to AZUL and JBLU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), RJET carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, AZUL (Azul S.A. each representing two (2)) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $801.7M) and JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RJET?
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Per RJET's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000810332), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+15.5% YoY), $76.2M in net income, and -$74.9M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.66 (+0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (11)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$28 Bull$19 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE RJET RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RJET)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RJET SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.16 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.5% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$16.69-2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$16.23+12% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$18.18+8% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$19.64-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RJET Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RJET currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.75) and Max Pain ($20.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RJET• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RJET Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±9.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (RJET)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for RJET.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RJET)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RJET's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RJET // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.03%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $19.97H $19.97L $19.32C $19.64VOL 63.9K
RES: $20.53SUP: $15.10SMA50: $17.75SMA200: $18.84
$27.47$24.27$21.07$17.87$14.67RES $20.53SUP $15.10$19.642026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RJET Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RJET Butterfly Map → + Track RJET →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RJET today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RJET. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RJET today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RJET)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #631 of 1009 ⚔️ AZUL vs RJET Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RJET vs. AZUL, JBLU, VLRS, ULCC)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) ranks #631 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #520 by equity capitalization ($904.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. AZUL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with RJET at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RJET ACTIVE
Republic Airways Holdings Inc.
D 46/100 12.3x — 11.1% +1.66% $904.6M Benchmark Subject
AZUL
Azul S.A. each representing two (2)
D 49/100 — — — +5.25% $801.7M /azul-vs-rjet →
JBLU
JetBlue Airways Corporation
E 22/100 — — -35.0% +11.23% $1.08B /jblu-vs-rjet →
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates
D 48/100 — — — +6.86% $744.8M /vlrs-vs-rjet →
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% +15.19% $1.49B /ulcc-vs-rjet →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000810332 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) reported GAAP revenue of $1.35B (+15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.17B , and +21.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $76.2M, operating cash flow of $322.0M, and free cash flow of -$74.9M (-12383.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, RJET closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.16, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.35B $76.2M $322.0M -$74.9M $3.28B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.17B $64.6M $226.1M -$600.0K $2.77B $83.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.11B $54.8M $329.2M $329.2M — —

3. RJET Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RJET stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $19.64 (+1.66% 1D, market cap $904.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RJET ranks #631 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RJET compare to AZUL and JBLU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), RJET carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, AZUL (Azul S.A. each representing two (2)) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $801.7M) and JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RJET?

Per RJET's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000810332), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+15.5% YoY), $76.2M in net income, and -$74.9M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RJET trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RJET last traded at $19.64 (+1.66% on volume of 179,387 shares), positioning the stock +10.65% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.75) and +4.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.84). Across its 52-week range of $15.37 to $26.70, RJET sits at the 37.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($17.77 to $21.51).

Direct Sub-Reports: RJET RQD Cockpit RJET 12M Forecast RJET Earnings & Move RJET Dividends & DRIP RJET Insiders & 13F RJET Whale Options RJET Profit Sankey RJET News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RJET — Republic Airways Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $19.64 (+1.66% 1D, market capitalization $904.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 12.5%, and free cash flow yield of -8.01%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.16, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry, and profile.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) reported $1.35B in annual revenue (up from $1.17B in FY2024, +15.5% YoY) and $76.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.11B revenue, $54.8M net income) through FY2025, RJET scaled operating cash flow to $322.0M and free cash flow to -$74.9M, backed by $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -8.01% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.37 – $26.70 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 12.3x trailing P/E against 12.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Air Freight/Delivery Services (Consumer Discretionary), RJET carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can RJET sustain or expand its 12.5% operating margin and 11.1% ROIC against Air Freight/Delivery Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.35B and free cash flow of -$74.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RJET's 10.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RJET Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RJET Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RJET Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.64?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RJET 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RJET:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.41 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at 10.3x forward P/E with 11.1% ROIC and a 12.5% operating margin, while the news feed reports 34% Q3 2026 revenue growth.

Picked up a starter position in RJET in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $19.32. Trades at 10.3x forward P/E with 11.1% ROIC and a 12.5% operating margin, while the news feed reports 34% Q3 2026 revenue growth.. Trading inside a $15.37–$26.70 52-week range with -8.01% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Air Freight/Delivery Services multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 11/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $19.32 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.23 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $19.32

Negative FCF yield of -8.01% and an Altman Z of 1.16 show weak cash conversion and financial-distress risk despite rising earnings.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on RJET: Negative FCF yield of -8.01% and an Altman Z of 1.16 show weak cash conversion and financial-distress risk despite rising earnings.. At 12.3x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Air Freight/Delivery Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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