Why RSG Stock surged +3.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$244.04 +3.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $246.07

Republic Services Inc. (RSG) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (42% profit margin, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $72.35B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RSG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $244.04 (+3.28% 1D, market cap $72.35B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, RSG ranks #3 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RSG compare to WM and WCN in the Utilities sector?
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Within the Utilities sector (Environmental Services), RSG carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.8x, gross margin of 42.0%, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, WM (Waste Management Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 33.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $91.81B) and WCN (Waste Connections Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 42.3x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $45.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GFL leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while RSG leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

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🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RSG?
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Per RSG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001060391), Republic Services Inc. generated $16.59B in revenue (+3.5% YoY), $2.14B in net income, and $2.41B in free cash flow against $34.37B in total assets and $8.04B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (42% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $246.07 (+0.83%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 14.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510079
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B+
Cash (17)Whales (16)SEC (16)Macro (15)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.4% Base Target
$315 Bull$267 Base$200 Bear
📬 FREE RSG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RSG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RSG SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.5% FCF Margin ($2.41B FCF) & 42% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution15/20 pts (-5 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 5 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$219.91+5.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
74
Grade B+$232.98+1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
76
Grade B+$235.66+3.6% Next Q
Current
79
Grade B+$244.04+8.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RSG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, RSG faces multiple-compression risk if 33.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($223.01) or 200D SMA ($217.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($267.10) toward Bear Floor ($200.11).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RSG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RSG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why RSG Stock surged +3.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Republic Services Inc. (RSG) surged +3.28% to $244.04, trading at 90% of its 52-week range ($196.41 – $249.37). High-quality cash engine (42% profit margin, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 90% of its 52-week range ($196.41 – $249.37) with RSI-14 at 58.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.2% around $244.04 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 42% gross margin and $2.4B annual free cash flow.
Live RSG Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (RSG Tape Review)

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RSG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.15%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $233.4H $244.0L $233.4C $244.0VOL 1.51M
RES: $249.9SUP: $206.7SMA50: $223.0SMA200: $217.0
$253.1$237.7$222.4$207.0$191.6RES $249.9SUP $206.7$244.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RSG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
26.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RSG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RSG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RSG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RSG)

Utilities Rank #3 of 117 ⚔️ WM vs RSG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (RSG vs. WM, WCN, GFL, CWST)

Industry: Environmental Services (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Republic Services Inc. (RSG) ranks #3 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #6 by equity capitalization ($72.35B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GFL leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while RSG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and 42.0% gross margin. RSG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RSG ACTIVE
Republic Services Inc.
B+ 79/100 33.8x 42.0% 13.9% +3.28% $72.35B Benchmark Subject
WM
Waste Management Inc.
B- 71/100 33.9x 40.4% 13.7% +1.10% $91.81B /wm-vs-rsg →
WCN
Waste Connections Inc.
B 73/100 42.3x 42.4% 9.9% +1.16% $45.52B /wcn-vs-rsg →
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate voting shares no par value
B 72/100 32.8x — 9.9% +0.38% $19.64B /gfl-vs-rsg →
CWST
Casella Waste Systems Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 33.8% 2.4% +3.34% $5.75B /cwst-vs-rsg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001060391

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Republic Services Inc. (RSG) reported GAAP revenue of $16.59B (+3.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $16.03B , and +10.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.14B, operating cash flow of $4.30B, and free cash flow of $2.41B (+15.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, RSG closed FY2025 with $34.37B in total assets against $8.04B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.84, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $16.59B $2.14B $4.30B $2.41B $34.37B $8.04B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $16.03B $2.04B $3.94B $2.08B $32.40B $7.58B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $14.96B $1.73B $3.62B $2.94B $39.79B $9.31B

3. RSG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RSG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $244.04 (+3.28% 1D, market cap $72.35B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, RSG ranks #3 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RSG compare to WM and WCN in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Environmental Services), RSG carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.8x, gross margin of 42.0%, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, WM (Waste Management Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 33.9x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $91.81B) and WCN (Waste Connections Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 42.3x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $45.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GFL leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while RSG leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RSG?

Per RSG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001060391), Republic Services Inc. generated $16.59B in revenue (+3.5% YoY), $2.14B in net income, and $2.41B in free cash flow against $34.37B in total assets and $8.04B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (42% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RSG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RSG last traded at $244.04 (+3.28% on volume of 2,403,953 shares), positioning the stock +9.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($223.01) and +12.45% above its 200-day simple moving average ($217.03). Across its 52-week range of $196.41 to $249.37, RSG sits at the 89.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($233.79 to $254.29).

RSG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is RSG stock moving today?

Why RSG Stock surged +3.28% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (42% profit margin, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 79/100 (B+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

RSG — Republic Services Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:26Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, RSG scores 79 out of 100, a letter grade of B+, labeled "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 17 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 13.9% and an FCF yield of 3.33%. For a prospective investor, this is the strongest pillar and suggests the business converts capital into cash returns at a healthy rate, though the 3.33% FCF yield also implies the market is pricing the stock at a premium to current cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying 13F and options detail is not itemized in the source data, so the investor implication is that institutional demand appears supportive but cannot be decomposed further from this dataset.
  • Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Specific transactions are not itemized in the source data, so the score signals moderate insider-side conviction without identifying who is buying or selling.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating and the market data, beta is 0.66, indicating lower sensitivity to broad market moves than a market-average stock. This can be a defensive characteristic in volatile regimes, but it also means the stock may participate less in strong risk-on rallies.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 16 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.84, the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.58. These readings point to a financially sound balance sheet by the cited measures.

Valuation tradeoff: Per the market data, trailing P/E is 33.8 and forward P/E is 31.4, with EV/EBITDA of 16.1. A prospective investor should weigh the quality signals above against a premium multiple: the stock is priced for continued earnings growth and durability, and any slowdown in cash generation would pressure that valuation. The Roarable rating is a composite and does not itself establish that the current price is attractive.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$236.28$72.35B33.831.416.16.991.02%0.66$196.41 - $249.3713.9%

Business

Republic Services Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Utilities sector and Environmental Services industry, per the profile. The source data does not itemize its service lines, customer segments, or revenue mix. Revenue is reported at $16591.0M for FY 2025 per the SEC financials. Gross margin is 42% per the market data, and operating margin is 19.9%.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six headlines, all tagged relatedSymbol RSG, all rated YELLOW with impact label "MARKET WIRE." The headlines center on valuation and cash flow framing: one describes the stock as potentially undervalued on cash flow, another compares RSG with Waste Management on income and post-investment cash, another asks whether buying at a high is a mistake, and another references a ten-day winning streak with the stock up 11%. Per the news wire, these are third-party commentary pieces and the source data does not contain their full text. Risk watch items are implied by the valuation debates but are not specified. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph contains no links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific service lines and revenue mix behind the FY 2025 revenue of $16591.0M?
  • Why is FY 2023 free cash flow ($2944.6M) higher than FY 2024 and FY 2025, and is that trend sustainable?
  • What is the EPS for each reported period? EPS appears as "N/A" throughout the financials.
  • What drove the 13F institutional accumulation and options positioning that the RQD rating credits?
  • Who are the insiders and Congressional members behind the cluster flow scored in the insider pillar?

RSG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Republic Services Inc. (RSG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RSG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RSG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $244.04?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RSG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RSG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $278.81 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is RSG (B+ • RQD 79/100) a Buy at $236.28?

Welcome to the RSG (Republic Services Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 79/100 (Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow) in Environmental Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (33.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $198.48 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $236.28

Pump the brakes on RSG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on RSG, but look at what you are paying: 33.8x trailing P/E with 42.0% gross margins. Unless Republic Services Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $281.17 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $236.28

RSG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on RSG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Environmental Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $236.28 (52-wk range $196.41 - $249.37), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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