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Why RWT Stock surged +3.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$3.24 +3.51% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.25

Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $407.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RWT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Redwood Trust Inc. (NYSE: RWT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $3.24 (+3.51% 1D, market cap $407.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RWT ranks #1036 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RWT compare to XRN and CHCT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), RWT carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.1%. By comparison, XRN (Chiron Real Estate Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.4%, cap $405.9M) and CHCT (Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 73.3x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $378.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCI leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while CHCT leads on capital efficiency (1.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWT?
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Per RWT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000930236), Redwood Trust Inc. generated $9.95B in revenue (+29.8% YoY), -$70.0M in net income, and -$10.09B in free cash flow against $23.70B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.25 (+0.44%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.6% Base Target
$7 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE RWT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RWT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RWT SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (36% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
20
Grade E$2.95+2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
23
Grade E$3.01+8.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
25
Grade E$3.26-0.6% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$3.24-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RWT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RWT currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.65) and Max Pain ($3.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RWT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RWT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why RWT Stock surged +3.51% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) surged +3.51% to $3.24, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($2.88 – $6.97). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($2.88 – $6.97) with RSI-14 at 46.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.7% around $3.24 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live RWT Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RWT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RWT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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RWT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.83%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $3.13H $3.24L $3.13C $3.24VOL 2.86M
RES: $4.88SUP: $2.42SMA50: $3.65SMA200: $4.96
$6.00$5.16$4.31$3.46$2.62RES $4.88SUP $2.42$3.242026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RWT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RWT Butterfly Map → + Track RWT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RWT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RWT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RWT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RWT)

Financials Rank #1036 of 1097 ⚔️ XRN vs RWT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RWT vs. XRN, CHCT, TCI, ILPT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) ranks #1036 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #743 by equity capitalization ($407.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCI leads on earnings valuation at 31.6x trailing P/E, while CHCT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.2% ROIC and — gross margin. ILPT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with RWT at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RWT ACTIVE
Redwood Trust Inc.
E 28/100 — — -7.1% +3.51% $407.0M Benchmark Subject
XRN
Chiron Real Estate Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -1.4% +0.96% $405.9M /xrn-vs-rwt →
CHCT
Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated
D- 43/100 73.3x — 1.2% +1.07% $378.2M /chct-vs-rwt →
TCI
Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.
D- 39/100 31.6x — -0.6% +1.86% $439.4M /tci-vs-rwt →
ILPT
Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of
D 49/100 — — -13.5% -2.94% $442.1M /ilpt-vs-rwt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000930236 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) reported GAAP revenue of $9.95B (+29.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.67B , and +30.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$70.0M, operating cash flow of -$10.09B, and free cash flow of -$10.09B (-72.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, RWT closed FY2025 with $23.70B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $9.95B -$70.0M -$10.09B -$10.09B $23.70B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.67B $54.0M -$5.86B -$5.86B $18.26B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.66B -$2.3M -$2.02B -$2.02B — —

3. RWT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RWT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Redwood Trust Inc. (NYSE: RWT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $3.24 (+3.51% 1D, market cap $407.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RWT ranks #1036 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RWT compare to XRN and CHCT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), RWT carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.1%. By comparison, XRN (Chiron Real Estate Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.4%, cap $405.9M) and CHCT (Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 73.3x, ROIC 1.2%, cap $378.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCI leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while CHCT leads on capital efficiency (1.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWT?

Per RWT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000930236), Redwood Trust Inc. generated $9.95B in revenue (+29.8% YoY), -$70.0M in net income, and -$10.09B in free cash flow against $23.70B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RWT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RWT last traded at $3.24 (+3.51% on volume of 2,861,641 shares), positioning the stock -11.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.65) and -34.68% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.96). Across its 52-week range of $2.88 to $6.97, RWT sits at the 8.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($2.93 to $3.55).

Direct Sub-Reports: RWT RQD Cockpit RWT 12M Forecast RWT Earnings & Move RWT Dividends & DRIP RWT Insiders & 13F RWT Whale Options RWT Profit Sankey RWT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RWT — Redwood Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.24 (+3.51% 1D, market capitalization $407.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $0.4B. — describes its specific products, customers, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) reported $9.95B in annual revenue (up from $7.67B in FY2024, +29.8% YoY) and -$70.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($7.66B revenue, -$2.3M net income) through FY2025, RWT scaled operating cash flow to -$10.09B and free cash flow to -$10.09B, backed by $23.70B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.88 – $6.97 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— identifies specific sector correlations or 2nd-order bottlenecks. A prospective investor should watch the credit-related items in the news wire, particularly the watchlisted senior notes, since they bear on the balance sheet pillar, and the valuation-driven price target cut, which signals analyst skepticism at current levels.

  • Key Question #1: Can RWT sustain or expand its — operating margin and -7.1% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $9.95B and free cash flow of -$10.09B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RWT's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RWT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RWT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RWT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.24?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RWT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RWT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.69 (+17.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Debt/Equity 0.5, the strongest component of the rating.

Here is why I am bullish on RWT here at $3.13: Forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10/20 with Altman Z 2.5 and Debt/Equity 0.5, the strongest component of the rating.. Compare RWT's 0.0% operating margin and -7.1% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.97 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $3.13 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.38 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $3.13

ROIC of -7.1% and FCF yield of 0% leave the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar at 4/20 with negative reported free cash flow in every perio

ROIC of -7.1% and FCF yield of 0% leave the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar at 4/20 with negative reported free cash flow in every period.. Look at the math on RWT: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -7.1% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Real Estate Investment Trusts demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $2.75 before getting long.

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