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Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.83 -4.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $2.29B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RXRX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RXRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: RXRX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $3.83 (-4.96% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RXRX ranks #454 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RXRX compare to ADMA and BCRX in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), RXRX carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 5.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 32.9%, cap $2.48B) and BCRX (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCRX leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while BCRX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RXRX?
▼

Per RXRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001601830), Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $74.7M in revenue (+26.9% YoY), -$644.8M in net income, and -$378.3M in free cash flow against $1.47B in total assets and $154.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.79 (-1.08%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510040
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (6)Whales (13)SEC (8)Macro (8)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
$6 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE RXRX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RXRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RXRX SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.59 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$4.16-13.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$3.58+18.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$4.24-9.7% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$3.83-7.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RXRX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RXRX currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.80) and Max Pain ($4.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.50.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RXRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RXRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RXRX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.83: 2611.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.75
$7,180
$-2,820 (-28.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.52
$9,191
$-809 (-8.1%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $5.50
$14,360
+$4,360 (+43.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RXRX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RXRX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RXRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.65%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $4.03H $4.03L $3.83C $3.83VOL 22.57M
RES: $5.49SUP: $3.61SMA50: $3.80SMA200: $3.52
$5.36$4.66$3.96$3.25$2.55RES $5.49SUP $3.61$3.832026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RXRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RXRX Butterfly Map → + Track RXRX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +26.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RXRX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RXRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RXRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RXRX)

Health Care Rank #454 of 1015 ⚔️ ADMA vs RXRX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RXRX vs. ADMA, BCRX, VCEL, BEAM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) ranks #454 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #231 by equity capitalization ($2.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCRX leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while BCRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ADMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with RXRX at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RXRX ACTIVE
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 40/100 — 5.0% -35.0% -4.96% $2.29B Benchmark Subject
ADMA
ADMA Biologics Inc
C+ 69/100 17.9x 57.4% 32.9% -3.07% $2.48B /adma-vs-rxrx →
BCRX
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.
C+ 67/100 8.3x — 85.0% -2.66% $2.11B /bcrx-vs-rxrx →
VCEL
Vericel Corporation
D+ 58/100 133.0x 74.4% 3.4% +0.62% $2.07B /vcel-vs-rxrx →
BEAM
Beam Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 — — -32.1% -4.99% $2.67B /beam-vs-rxrx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001601830 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) reported GAAP revenue of $74.7M (+26.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $58.8M , and +67.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$644.8M, operating cash flow of -$371.8M, and free cash flow of -$378.3M (-1.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, RXRX closed FY2025 with $1.47B in total assets against $154.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.59, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $74.7M -$644.8M -$371.8M -$378.3M $1.47B $154.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $58.8M -$463.7M -$359.2M -$372.9M $1.45B $186.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $44.6M -$328.1M -$287.8M -$289.8M $1.39B $325.7M

3. RXRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RXRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: RXRX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $3.83 (-4.96% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, RXRX ranks #454 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RXRX compare to ADMA and BCRX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), RXRX carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 5.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ADMA (ADMA Biologics Inc) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 17.9x, ROIC 32.9%, cap $2.48B) and BCRX (BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $2.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCRX leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while BCRX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RXRX?

Per RXRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001601830), Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $74.7M in revenue (+26.9% YoY), -$644.8M in net income, and -$378.3M in free cash flow against $1.47B in total assets and $154.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RXRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RXRX last traded at $3.83 (-4.96% on volume of 22,571,076 shares), positioning the stock +0.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.80) and +8.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.52). Across its 52-week range of $2.77 to $5.24, RXRX sits at the 42.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.35 to $4.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: RXRX RQD Cockpit RXRX 12M Forecast RXRX Earnings & Move RXRX Dividends & DRIP RXRX Insiders & 13F RXRX Whale Options RXRX Profit Sankey RXRX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 40/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RXRX — Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.83 (-4.96% 1D, market capitalization $2.29B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 5.0%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -14.95%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.59, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.13x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. It is a biotechnology company with a market capitalization of $2.5B. Reported revenue was $74.7M in FY 2025, indicating a revenue base still small relative to operating losses.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) reported $74.7M in annual revenue (up from $58.8M in FY2024, +26.9% YoY) and -$644.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($44.6M revenue, -$328.1M net income) through FY2025, RXRX scaled operating cash flow to -$371.8M and free cash flow to -$378.3M, backed by $1.47B in total assets against $154.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.95% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.77 – $5.24 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should watch whether future partnership milestones materially change the revenue trajectory, since the current revenue base is small against operating losses.

  • Key Question #1: Can RXRX sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $74.7M and free cash flow of -$378.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $154.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RXRX's 32.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RXRX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RXRX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RXRX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.83?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RXRX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RXRX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.16 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported cash of $743.3M against $154.5M in debt provides a meaningful liquidity cushion while institutional whale-flow scores 16 / 20.

Picked up a starter position in RXRX in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $4.03. Reported cash of $743.3M against $154.5M in debt provides a meaningful liquidity cushion while institutional whale-flow scores 16 / 20.. Trading inside a $2.77–$5.32 52-week range with -14.95% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.03 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.39 (-15.9%)
Spot @ $4.03

ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -14.95%, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.59 signal a cash-burning balance sheet under stress.

Careful chasing RXRX at $4.03. ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -14.95%, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.59 signal a cash-burning balance sheet under stress.. Gross margin is 5.0%, but operating margin is -60.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $3.39 on multiple compression.

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