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Why SAFE Stock dropped -2.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$11.23 -2.77% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $817.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SAFE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $11.23 (-2.77% 1D, market cap $817.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SAFE ranks #622 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SAFE compare to SVC and ESRT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), SAFE carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.3%. By comparison, SVC (Service Properties Trust of) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.3%, cap $809.4M) and ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 11.6%, cap $859.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while ESRT leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFE?
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Per SAFE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001095651), Safehold Inc. generated $385.6M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $114.5M in net income, and $47.8M in free cash flow against $7.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15 (-0.69%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 12.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510051
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (10)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target
$18 Bull$11 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE SAFE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SAFE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SAFE SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$11.55-7.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
56
Grade C$10.66+2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$10.97+2.4% Next Q
Current
51
Grade D$11.23-1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → D (51)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SAFE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SAFE currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.73) and Max Pain ($11.79) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SAFE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SAFE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why SAFE Stock dropped -2.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) dropped -2.77% to $11.23, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($10.61 – $17.45). Stretched risk/reward at 7x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($10.61 – $17.45) with RSI-14 at 46 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.1% around $11.23 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $47.8M annual free cash flow.
Live SAFE Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SAFE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SAFE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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SAFE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $11.30H $11.55L $11.23C $11.23VOL 653.5K
RES: $20.19SUP: $10.14SMA50: $12.73SMA200: $14.65
$17.93$15.95$13.96$11.98$9.99RES $20.19SUP $10.14$11.232026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SAFE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SAFE Butterfly Map → + Track SAFE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SAFE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SAFE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SAFE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SAFE)

Financials Rank #622 of 1097 ⚔️ SVC vs SAFE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SAFE vs. SVC, ESRT, CTO, INN)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Safehold Inc. (SAFE) ranks #622 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #597 by equity capitalization ($817.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAFE leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while ESRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. INN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with SAFE at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SAFE ACTIVE
Safehold Inc.
D 51/100 7.0x — 3.3% -2.77% $817.9M Benchmark Subject
SVC
Service Properties Trust of
D- 38/100 — — -31.3% -0.64% $809.4M /svc-vs-safe →
ESRT
Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — — 11.6% +1.20% $859.1M /esrt-vs-safe →
CTO
CTO Realty Growth Inc.
D 50/100 — — 4.8% -0.55% $778.7M /cto-vs-safe →
INN
Summit Hotel Properties Inc.
C- 59/100 — — 6.3% -0.84% $765.8M /inn-vs-safe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001095651 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Safehold Inc. (SAFE) reported GAAP revenue of $385.6M (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $365.7M , and +9.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.5M, operating cash flow of $47.8M, and free cash flow of $47.8M (+26.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, SAFE closed FY2025 with $7.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $385.6M $114.5M $47.8M $47.8M $7.25B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $365.7M $105.8M $37.9M $37.9M $6.90B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $352.6M -$55.0M $15.4M $15.4M — —

3. SAFE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SAFE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $11.23 (-2.77% 1D, market cap $817.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SAFE ranks #622 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SAFE compare to SVC and ESRT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), SAFE carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.3%. By comparison, SVC (Service Properties Trust of) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.3%, cap $809.4M) and ESRT (Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 11.6%, cap $859.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAFE leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while ESRT leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFE?

Per SAFE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001095651), Safehold Inc. generated $385.6M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $114.5M in net income, and $47.8M in free cash flow against $7.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SAFE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SAFE last traded at $11.23 (-2.77% on volume of 562,885 shares), positioning the stock -11.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.73) and -23.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.65). Across its 52-week range of $10.61 to $17.45, SAFE sits at the 9.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($10.43 to $12.03).

Direct Sub-Reports: SAFE RQD Cockpit SAFE 12M Forecast SAFE Earnings & Move SAFE Dividends & DRIP SAFE Insiders & 13F SAFE Whale Options SAFE Profit Sankey SAFE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SAFE — Safehold Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 51/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $11.23 (-2.77% 1D, market capitalization $817.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 26.2%, and free cash flow yield of 5.95%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Safehold Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry,. The profile identifies the company as operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts with a market capitalization of $0.8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Safehold Inc. (SAFE) reported $385.6M in annual revenue (up from $365.7M in FY2024, +5.4% YoY) and $114.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($352.6M revenue, -$55.0M net income) through FY2025, SAFE scaled operating cash flow to $47.8M and free cash flow to $47.8M, backed by $7.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 51/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.95% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.61 – $17.45 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 7.0x trailing P/E and 7.7x EV/EBITDA against 26.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the Real Estate Investment Trusts classification, and second-order bottlenecks are — The beta of 1.0 per the market data suggests market-level sensitivity, and the RQD Macro Regime Fit pillar at 9 of 20 indicates sector sensitivity, but the graph does not identify specific ripple pathways.

  • Key Question #1: Can SAFE sustain or expand its 26.2% operating margin and 3.3% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $385.6M and free cash flow of $47.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SAFE's 6.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SAFE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Safehold Inc. (SAFE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SAFE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SAFE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.23?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SAFE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SAFE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.90 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at a 7 P/E (TTM) and 6.5 forward P/E with a 6.34% dividend yield and 5.95% FCF yield, while the Morgan Stanley upgrade flags hea

The street is overcomplicating Safehold Inc. (SAFE). Trades at a 7 P/E (TTM) and 6.5 forward P/E with a 6.34% dividend yield and 5.95% FCF yield, while the Morgan Stanley upgrade flags headwinds that may already be priced in.. With an RQD score of 51/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $12.20.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 51/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.30 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.51.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.93 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $11.30

The RQD verdict is Underperform / Distribution Warning, with institutional flow scoring only 3 of 20 and ROIC at 3.3%.

The RQD verdict is Underperform / Distribution Warning, with institutional flow scoring only 3 of 20 and ROIC at 3.3%.. Look at the math on SAFE: paying 7.0x trailing P/E for 3.3% ROIC and 26.2% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Real Estate Investment Trusts demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $9.94 before getting long.

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