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Stock Ratings / Health Care / SERA / dividends
KEQU (69) BNR (20) XGN (36) TLSI (30) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$1.99 -2.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.98

Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $80.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SERA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $1.99 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $80.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #837 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $96.8M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?
▼

Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.98 (-0.63%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (3)Whales (7)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.1% Base Target
$4 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE SERA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SERA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SERA SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$2.04-0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$2.03+1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$2.05-2.9% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$1.99-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SERA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SERA currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.05) and Max Pain ($2.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SERA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SERA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SERA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SERA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SERA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.74%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $2.06H $2.06L $1.99C $1.99VOL 86.0K
RES: $2.21SUP: $2.04SMA50: $2.05SMA200: $2.12
$2.90$2.54$2.17$1.81$1.45RES $2.21SUP $2.04$1.992026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SERA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SERA Butterfly Map → + Track SERA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SERA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SERA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SERA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SERA)

Health Care Rank #837 of 1015 ⚔️ KEQU vs SERA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SERA vs. KEQU, BNR, XGN, TLSI)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) ranks #837 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #680 by equity capitalization ($80.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KEQU leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while KEQU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.7% ROIC and 28.5% gross margin. KEQU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SERA at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SERA ACTIVE
Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A)
E 29/100 — -30.0% -35.0% -2.45% $80.5M Benchmark Subject
KEQU
Kewaunee Scientific Corporation
C+ 69/100 10.1x 28.5% 16.7% -0.12% $96.8M /kequ-vs-sera →
BNR
Burning Rock Biotech Limited
E 20/100 — 74.7% -35.0% -7.89% $115.0M /bnr-vs-sera →
XGN
Exagen Inc.
D- 36/100 — 58.3% -35.0% -2.33% $208.1M /xgn-vs-sera →
TLSI
TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.
E 30/100 — 84.6% -35.0% -1.89% $227.8M /tlsi-vs-sera →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001534969 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) reported GAAP revenue of $81.0K (+5.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $77.0K , and -73.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.9M, operating cash flow of -$25.6M, and free cash flow of -$26.3M (-85.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SERA closed FY2025 with $101.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $81.0K -$31.9M -$25.6M -$26.3M $101.9M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $77.0K -$32.9M -$14.2M -$14.2M $72.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $306.0K -$36.2M -$27.2M -$27.2M — —

3. SERA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SERA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: SERA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $1.99 (-2.45% 1D, market cap $80.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, SERA ranks #837 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SERA compare to KEQU and BNR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), SERA carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, KEQU (Kewaunee Scientific Corporation) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.7%, cap $96.8M) and BNR (Burning Rock Biotech Limited) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $115.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KEQU leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while KEQU leads on capital efficiency (16.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SERA?

Per SERA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001534969), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) generated $81.0K in revenue (+5.2% YoY), -$31.9M in net income, and -$26.3M in free cash flow against $101.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SERA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SERA last traded at $1.99 (-2.45% on volume of 22,569 shares), positioning the stock -2.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.05) and -6.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.12). Across its 52-week range of $1.56 to $3.85, SERA sits at the 18.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($1.88 to $2.10).

Direct Sub-Reports: SERA RQD Cockpit SERA 12M Forecast SERA Earnings & Move SERA Dividends & DRIP SERA Insiders & 13F SERA Whale Options SERA Profit Sankey SERA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SERA — Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.99 (-2.45% 1D, market capitalization $80.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of -30.0%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker SERA and operates in the Health Care sector, within the Medical Specialities industry,. Per the market data, the company reports revenue of $0.1M for FY 2025. The company's gross margin is -30%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) reported $81.0K in annual revenue (up from $77.0K in FY2024, +5.2% YoY) and -$31.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($306.0K revenue, -$36.2M net income) through FY2025, SERA scaled operating cash flow to -$25.6M and free cash flow to -$26.3M, backed by $101.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.56 – $3.85 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Medical Specialities (Health Care), SERA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of -30.0%.

  • Key Question #1: Can SERA sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $81.0K and free cash flow of -$26.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SERA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SERA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sera Prognostics Inc. (Class A) (SERA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SERA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SERA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SERA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SERA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.43 (+19.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader

Don't sleep on SERA's setup in Health Care. The stock trades at $2.06 with a Beta of 1.0 and a 52-week low of $1.56, so the market-related risk profile is in line with the broader market per the RQD rating.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (29/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 7/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.04 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.63 (-20.1%)
Spot @ $2.04

Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash

Fading this rally in SERA at $2.04. Negative cash economics dominate the rating: ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of 0%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$26.3M against $3.9M of cash.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $2.04 (52-wk range $1.56–$3.85), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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