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Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$61.01 +2.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.16

Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $579.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SFST Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Southern First Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: SFST) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $61.01 (+2.40% 1D, market cap $579.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SFST ranks #430 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SFST compare to BWB and BWFG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), SFST carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, BWB (Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $577.7M) and BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $581.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SFST?
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Per SFST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001090009), Southern First Bancshares Inc. generated $1.85B in revenue (+7.7% YoY), $30.4M in net income, and $29.9M in free cash flow against $4.40B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.16 (+0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$72 Bull$61 Base$48 Bear
📬 FREE SFST RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SFST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SFST SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$59.22+1.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$60.07+1.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$60.98+0% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$61.01+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SFST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, SFST faces multiple-compression risk if 19.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($61.01) or 200D SMA ($58.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($61.28) toward Bear Floor ($47.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SFST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SFST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SFST Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $61.01: 163.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $47.80
$7,835
$-2,165 (-21.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $61.28
$10,044
+$44 (+0.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $72.31
$11,852
+$1,852 (+18.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$6474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$6869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$5558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SFST Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
SFST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.53%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-04O $59.58H $61.01L $59.58C $61.01VOL 89.6K
RES: $62.14SUP: $59.09SMA50: $61.01SMA200: $58.94
$66.14$61.80$57.46$53.12$48.78RES $62.14SUP $59.09$61.012026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SFST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SFST Butterfly Map → + Track SFST →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SFST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SFST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SFST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SFST)

Financials Rank #430 of 1097 ⚔️ BWB vs SFST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SFST vs. BWB, BWFG, UNTY, BSVN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) ranks #430 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #671 by equity capitalization ($579.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UNTY leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with SFST at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SFST ACTIVE
Southern First Bancshares Inc.
C- 59/100 19.0x — 8.2% +2.40% $579.0M Benchmark Subject
BWB
Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.
D+ 52/100 12.3x — 8.9% +2.03% $577.7M /bwb-vs-sfst →
BWFG
Bankwell Financial Group Inc.
C 65/100 15.8x — 11.7% +2.40% $581.5M /bwfg-vs-sfst →
UNTY
Unity Bancorp Inc.
C 63/100 10.1x — 16.8% +2.77% $591.5M /unty-vs-sfst →
BSVN
Bank7 Corp.
B- 71/100 13.1x — 17.2% +0.02% $558.6M /bsvn-vs-sfst →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001090009 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B (+7.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.72B , and +1720.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $30.4M, operating cash flow of $30.5M, and free cash flow of $29.9M (+20.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SFST closed FY2025 with $4.40B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.85B $30.4M $30.5M $29.9M $4.40B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.72B $15.5M $25.6M $24.8M $4.09B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $101.6M $13.4M $17.7M $17.7M — —

3. SFST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Southern First Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: SFST) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $61.01 (+2.40% 1D, market cap $579.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SFST ranks #430 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SFST compare to BWB and BWFG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), SFST carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, BWB (Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $577.7M) and BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $581.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SFST?

Per SFST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001090009), Southern First Bancshares Inc. generated $1.85B in revenue (+7.7% YoY), $30.4M in net income, and $29.9M in free cash flow against $4.40B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SFST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SFST last traded at $61.01 (+2.40% on volume of 89,620 shares), positioning the stock 0.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($61.01) and +3.51% above its 200-day simple moving average ($58.94). Across its 52-week range of $43.70 to $65.09, SFST sits at the 80.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($58.02 to $64.00).

Direct Sub-Reports: SFST RQD Cockpit SFST 12M Forecast SFST Earnings & Move SFST Dividends & DRIP SFST Insiders & 13F SFST Whale Options SFST Profit Sankey SFST News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SFST — Southern First Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $61.01 (+2.40% 1D, market capitalization $579.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 5.18%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Southern First Bancshares Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Major Banks industry..6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) reported $1.85B in annual revenue (up from $1.72B in FY2024, +7.7% YoY) and $30.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($101.6M revenue, $13.4M net income) through FY2025, SFST scaled operating cash flow to $30.5M and free cash flow to $29.9M, backed by $4.40B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.18% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $43.70 – $65.09 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 19.0x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), SFST carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can SFST sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.2% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.85B and free cash flow of $29.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SFST's 17.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SFST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SFST Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SFST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $61.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SFST 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SFST:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $70.30 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income more than doubled from $15.5M in FY 2024 to $30.4M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a 17.7 forward P/E.

Here is why I am bullish on SFST here at $59.58: Net income more than doubled from $15.5M in FY 2024 to $30.4M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a 17.7 forward P/E.. Compare SFST's 0.0% operating margin and 8.2% ROIC against the rest of Major Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $56.60 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $59.58 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $45.28 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $59.58

The RQD rating is only a C- with the whale-flow pillar at 10 of 20 and no dividend yield, and the Simply Wall St item carries a RED RIS

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SFST above $59.58. The RQD rating is only a C- with the whale-flow pillar at 10 of 20 and no dividend yield, and the Simply Wall St item carries a RED RISK WATCH flag.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (5.18%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $65.09.

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