Stock Ratings / Health Care / SGRY / earnings

NHC (72) BKD (32) MD (77) ARDT (69) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.5% Move

$23.21 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.17

Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.04B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SGRY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SGRY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Surgery Partners Inc. (NASDAQ: SGRY) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $23.21 (0.00% 1D, market cap $3.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SGRY ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SGRY compare to NHC and BKD in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), SGRY carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, NHC (National HealthCare Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 27.7x, ROIC 10.1%, cap $3.23B) and BKD (Brookdale Senior Living Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.3%, cap $2.48B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGRY?

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Per SGRY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001638833), Surgery Partners Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$77.9M in net income, and $195.6M in free cash flow against $8.12B in total assets and $1.90B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.17 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 4.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SGRY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SGRY SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$14.83+3.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$15.40+50.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$23.24-0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$23.21+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SGRY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, SGRY faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.67) or 200D SMA ($14.74) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($24.05) toward Bear Floor ($18.76).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SGRY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SGRY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.5% Swing Band

±$1.28 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SGRY Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 66/100

Trailing EPS: $-0.60 • YoY Revenue Growth: 6.6%

Model Bullish Setup (66/100)Model Risk Weight (34/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	-$77.9M	$195.6M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	-$168.1M	$209.7M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$11.9M	$293.8M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SGRY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SGRY
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SGRY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +63.45%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $23.21H $23.21L $23.21C $23.21VOL 3.51M

RES: $23.78SUP: $12.92SMA50: $15.67SMA200: $14.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SGRY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SGRY Butterfly Map → + Track SGRY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SGRY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SGRY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SGRY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SGRY)

Health Care Rank #113 of 1016 ⚔️ NHC vs SGRY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SGRY vs. NHC, BKD, MD, ARDT)

Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #206 by equity capitalization ($3.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with SGRY at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SGRY ACTIVE Surgery Partners Inc.	C+	66/100	—	—	9.9%	0.00%	$3.04B	Benchmark Subject
NHC National HealthCare Corporation	B	72/100	27.7x	—	10.1%	-2.84%	$3.23B	/nhc-vs-sgry →
BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc.	E	32/100	—	26.2%	0.3%	+1.17%	$2.48B	/bkd-vs-sgry →
MD Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.	B+	77/100	14.3x	—	33.6%	+2.19%	$2.33B	/md-vs-sgry →
ARDT Ardent Health Inc.	C+	69/100	12.8x	—	10.5%	-2.19%	$1.70B	/ardt-vs-sgry →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001638833

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$77.9M, operating cash flow of $274.3M, and free cash flow of $195.6M (-6.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SGRY closed FY2025 with $8.12B in total assets against $1.90B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.67, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$77.9M	$274.3M	$195.6M	$8.12B	$1.90B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$168.1M	$300.1M	$209.7M	$7.89B	$1.85B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$11.9M	$293.8M	$293.8M	$1.67B	$391.1M

3. SGRY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SGRY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SGRY compare to NHC and BKD in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGRY?

Where is SGRY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SGRY last traded at $23.21 (0.00% on volume of 3,514,095 shares), positioning the stock +48.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.67) and +57.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.74). Across its 52-week range of $11.41 to $23.37, SGRY sits at the 98.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 86.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($21.93 to $24.49).

SGRY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SGRY's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is SGRY stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.5% event move for SGRY, spanning a range between $21.93 and $24.49.

Direct Sub-Reports: SGRY RQD Cockpit SGRY 12M Forecast SGRY Earnings & Move SGRY Dividends & DRIP SGRY Insiders & 13F SGRY Whale Options SGRY Profit Sankey SGRY News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SGRY — Surgery Partners Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:21Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SGRY scores 66 out of 100 (letter grade C+; verdict: "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout"). The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.9% and an FCF yield of 6.44%. It is the weakest pillar relative to its maximum, which suggests the cash-generation case is only moderately supportive at the current valuation.
Whale 13F Flow (17 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. It is the strongest pillar, indicating that large holders' activity is a notable positive input to the overall score.
Insider Conviction (16 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. It is the second-strongest pillar.
Macro Regime Fit (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects a beta of 0.99 and sector sensitivity. A beta near 1.0 implies the stock has historically moved roughly in line with the broader market.
Forensic Balance Sheet (10 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 0.67, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96. The strong Piotroski reading is offset by a low Altman Z-Score, which the rating treats as a meaningful balance-sheet risk.

For a prospective investor, the score implies a neutral stance with conditions for upgrade. Strength in institutional and insider flow is counterbalanced by a weak cash-engine pillar and a stressed Altman reading. Valuation context from the market data: forward P/E of 22 and EV/EBITDA of 9.7, while EPS (TTM) is -0.6, so earnings-based valuation is not supported by trailing results. Upside drivers cited in the source data center on the recent takeover-related news flow; the rating itself does not assign a price target.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$389.5M	$-77.9M	N/A	$195.6M	$239.9M	$1900.0M
FY 2024	$0.0M	$348.8M	$-168.1M	N/A	$209.7M	$269.5M	$1846.3M
FY 2023	$0.0M	$328.0M	$-11.9M	N/A	$293.8M	N/A	$391.1M

Per the SEC financials, operating income rose from $328.0M (FY 2023) to $389.5M (FY 2025), while net income was negative in each reported period. The operating margin is 45.8% and the net margin is -9.2% per the market data section; the gross margin is reported as 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 9.9%, the Altman Z-Score is 0.67, and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9; the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.96. Reported debt rose from $391.1M (FY 2023) to $1900.0M (FY 2025) per the SEC financials.

Open Questions

What are the terms, price per share, and expected timing of the reported Bon Secours transaction, and is it confirmed?
What is the revenue figure, given that the financials report $0.0M revenue across all periods?
What is the reason for the Altman Z-Score of 0.67 and the rise in reported debt from $391.1M to $1900.0M?
Why is the P/E (TTM) unavailable while EPS (TTM) is -0.6?
What drives the N/A EPS and the missing FY 2023 cash figure?

SGRY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SGRY Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Reuters • 15h ago

Surgery Partners to be taken private by Bon Secours affiliate in $5.7 billion deal

Reuters report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 18h ago

Why Surgery Partners (SGRY) stock is trading up today

Yahoo Finance report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Dealroom • 21h ago

Bon Secours nears $6B buyout of Surgery Partners, shares jump 21%

Dealroom report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Bon Secours nears $6B takeover of Surgery Partners, FT reports (SGRY:NASDAQ)

Seeking Alpha report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Motley Fool • 1d ago

Stock Market Today, Oct. 26: Surgery Partners Skyrockets 48% on $5.7 Billion HealthSpan Acquisition

The Motley Fool report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Surgery Partners (SGRY) Stock Could Be 17% Stretched As Buyout Scrutiny Builds

Yahoo Finance report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Surgery Partners' Buyout Leaves Little To Be Had By Holding On (Downgrade) (NASDAQ:SGRY)

Seeking Alpha report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Surgery Partners (SGRY) Cheap After a 65% Five Year Fall?

Yahoo Finance report covering Surgery Partners Inc. (SGRY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SGRY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $23.21?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SGRY 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $25.07 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SGRY (C+ • RQD 66/100) a Buy at $23.21?

Welcome to the SGRY (Surgery Partners Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Hospital/Nursing Management. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.87 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $23.21

Pump the brakes on SGRY — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SGRY, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Surgery Partners Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.92 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $23.21

SGRY cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SGRY, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Hospital/Nursing Management and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $23.21 (52-wk range $11.41 - $23.37), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.