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Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$19.13 -6.41% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.87

Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $425.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (NYSE: SI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $19.13 (-6.41% 1D, market cap $425.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SI ranks #324 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SI compare to CARL and OFIX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), SI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 76.5%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $430.6M) and OFIX (Orthofix Medical Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $417.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SI?
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Per SI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001699350), Shoulder Innovations Inc. generated $47.3M in revenue (+49.6% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and -$36.0M in free cash flow against $169.9M in total assets and $14.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.87 (-1.34%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (14)SEC (11)Macro (11)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$26 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE SI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SI SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.73 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$18.23+0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
43
Grade D$18.25+6.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$19.38-1.3% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$19.13-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($19.15) and Max Pain ($20.09) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $19.13: 522.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $14.25
$7,449
$-2,551 (-25.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $18.27
$9,550
$-450 (-4.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.82
$13,497
+$3,497 (+35.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
SI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +46.82%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $19.48H $20.44L $19.13C $19.13VOL 144.8K
RES: $19.93SUP: $15.05SMA50: $19.15SMA200: $17.04
$25.45$21.88$18.31$14.73$11.16RES $19.93SUP $15.05$19.132026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SI Butterfly Map → + Track SI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +49.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SI)

Health Care Rank #324 of 1016 ⚔️ CARL vs SI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SI vs. CARL, OFIX, NPCE, SSII)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) ranks #324 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #471 by equity capitalization ($425.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OFIX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.2% ROIC and 68.8% gross margin. SI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SI ACTIVE
Shoulder Innovations Inc.
D 48/100 — 76.5% -16.1% -6.41% $425.5M Benchmark Subject
CARL
Carlsmed Inc.
D- 41/100 — 75.3% -35.0% -5.20% $430.6M /carl-vs-si →
OFIX
Orthofix Medical Inc.
D 47/100 — 68.8% -12.2% -11.43% $417.1M /ofix-vs-si →
NPCE
Neuropace Inc.
E 23/100 — 77.2% -23.0% -5.46% $446.6M /npce-vs-si →
SSII
SS Innovations International Inc.
E 30/100 — 46.0% -18.5% -1.26% $477.2M /ssii-vs-si →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001699350

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) reported GAAP revenue of $47.3M (+49.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $31.6M ) , GAAP net income of -$40.4M, operating cash flow of -$28.6M, and free cash flow of -$36.0M (-98.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, SI closed FY2025 with $169.9M in total assets against $14.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.73, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $47.3M -$40.4M -$28.6M -$36.0M $169.9M $14.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $31.6M -$15.6M -$14.1M -$18.2M $43.1M $14.7M

3. SI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Shoulder Innovations Inc. (NYSE: SI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $19.13 (-6.41% 1D, market cap $425.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SI ranks #324 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SI compare to CARL and OFIX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), SI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 76.5%, and ROIC of -16.1%. By comparison, CARL (Carlsmed Inc.) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $430.6M) and OFIX (Orthofix Medical Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $417.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OFIX leads on capital efficiency (-12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SI?

Per SI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001699350), Shoulder Innovations Inc. generated $47.3M in revenue (+49.6% YoY), -$40.4M in net income, and -$36.0M in free cash flow against $169.9M in total assets and $14.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SI last traded at $19.13 (-6.41% on volume of 119,342 shares), positioning the stock -0.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($19.15) and +12.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.04). Across its 52-week range of $10.92 to $24.59, SI sits at the 60.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($17.01 to $21.25).

SI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SI's 12-month stock price target?

Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $18.27 (-4.5% from $19.13), with a bull-case target of $25.82 and a bear-case floor of $14.25.

Is SI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates SI D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 48/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: SI RQD Cockpit SI 12M Forecast SI Earnings & Move SI Dividends & DRIP SI Insiders & 13F SI Whale Options SI Profit Sankey SI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SI — Shoulder Innovations Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:36:39Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SI scores 48 out of 100, a letter grade of D, and a verdict of "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 9 / 20. This is the weakest pillar relative to its weight. The cited inputs are ROIC of -16.1% and FCF yield of -8.46%, which indicate the business is not currently generating cash returns on invested capital or free cash flow to shareholders.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20. Described as reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is a moderate score; the source data does not itemize the 13F holdings, so the composition of this flow is not available in source data.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Described as reflecting SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the lowest pillar score and suggests limited insider-level conviction signals in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Cited inputs are beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 implies market-level sensitivity per the market data section.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 11 / 20. Cited inputs are Altman Z-Score 8.73, Piotroski F-Score 5/9, and Debt/Equity 0.11. The Z-Score and low leverage are supportive; the Piotroski score is middling.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating's central message is that the operating and cash-flow picture carries the most weight against the stock, while the balance sheet is comparatively less stressed. The rating's upside case would depend on improvement in cash generation, since that is the pillar with the largest gap. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be fully assessed because P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are not available in source data; with negative operating and net margins, traditional earnings multiples would not be meaningful in any case. The stock's 4.93% daily price change and 52-week range of $10.92 - $24.59 show it has traded across a wide band, but the rating treats price momentum as secondary to the fundamental and insider-flow findings.

Business

Shoulder Innovations Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Health Care sector and the Medical/Dental Instruments industry, per the company profile. The profile does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. Per the SEC financials, the company reported revenue of $47.3M for FY 2025, up from $31.6M for FY 2024. How the company makes money beyond that revenue line, and to whom it sells, is not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31)$47.3M$-26.3M$-40.4MN/A$-36.0M$26.9M$14.9M
FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31)$31.6M$-14.7M$-15.6MN/A$-18.2M$6.1M$14.7M

Per the SEC financials, both reported periods show operating and net losses, with losses widening in FY 2025 relative to FY 2024. Per the market data section, gross margin is 76.5%, operating margin is -55.6%, and net margin is -60%, with ROIC of -16.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 8.73 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.11. Cash rose from $6.1M to $26.9M while debt was roughly flat at $14.7M to $14.9M, though free cash flow was negative in both periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items are tagged to SI:

  • "Shoulder Innovations to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences" (Yahoo Finance, YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • "A new shoulder implant was used in its first operation. Its design cuts surgical steps." (Stock Titan, RED, RISK WATCH). This is the only item flagged RED and carries a risk-watch label; the source does not specify the operational details beyond the headline.
  • "Shoulder Innovations, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:SI" (TradingView, YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • "Form 4 Shoulder Innovations Inc For: 11 October" (Investing.com Nigeria, YELLOW, MARKET WIRE). This references an insider filing; the transaction details are not available in source data.
  • "Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (NYSE: SI) Share Price, SI Stock News..." (kalkine.ca, YELLOW, MARKET WIRE).
  • A Yahoo Finance item with a headline about Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. (SEI) analyst upside, tagged to SI in the feed (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE). The headline concerns a different company, so its relevance to SI is not established in source data.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the sector is Health Care, the industry is Medical/Dental Instruments, the supply chain is listed as NONE, and there are no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What specific products and customers generate the $47.3M of FY 2025 revenue, and what drove the increase from $31.6M in FY 2024?
  • What are the reasons for the widening operating and net losses in FY 2025, and what is the company's path toward positive free cash flow?
  • What is the content and significance of the RED-flagged first-operation implant news, and does it affect the company's revenue or risk profile?
  • What do the Form 4 insider transactions and any 13F institutional holdings actually show, given that the insider pillar scores only 3 / 20?
  • Why does the news feed tag an item about a different company (Solaris Energy Infrastructure) to SI, and is any relationship real?

SI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Shoulder Innovations Inc. (SI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.13?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $22.08 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SI (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $20.44?

Welcome to the SI (Shoulder Innovations Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Medical/Dental Instruments. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.97 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $20.44

Pump the brakes on SI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 76.5% gross margins. Unless Shoulder Innovations Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.51 (+15.0%)
Spot @ $20.44

SI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Medical/Dental Instruments and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $20.44 (52-wk range $10.92 - $24.59), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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