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Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$187.90 -9.94% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $184.18

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) receives a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID rating (48/100 RQD Confidence). Alongside weak composite pillar scores, our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing operating cash flow (+57.8% (NI vs OCF)).

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $7.07B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SIMO Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SIMO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: SIMO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $187.90 (-9.94% 1D, market cap $7.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Active quantitative signal ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SIMO compare to FORM and VIAV in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), SIMO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 63.0x, gross margin of 48.3%, and ROIC of 9.3%. By comparison, FORM (FormFactor Inc. FormFactor Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 140.1x, ROIC 4.8%, cap $6.84B) and VIAV (Viavi Solutions Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.4%, cap $7.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SIMO leads on earnings multiple (63.0x) while VIAV leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SIMO?
β–Ό

Per SIMO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001329394), Silicon Motion Technology Corporation generated $885.6M in revenue (+10.2% YoY), $122.6M in net income, and $6.3M in free cash flow against $1.22B in total assets and $176.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flowβ€”monitor working-capital conversion. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $184.18 (-1.98%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) β€’ 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510048
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk C-
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (15)Macro (9)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$373 Bull$179 Base$140 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE SIMO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SIMO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY SIMO SCORES 48/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 13.92 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (19% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 39% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 42.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$223.58-0.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$222.30-1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$219.61-14.4% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$187.90-5.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (56) β†’ D (48)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SIMO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While SIMO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($247.25) and Max Pain ($197.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $372.75.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SIMOβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œSIMO Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SIMO)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SIMO.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SIMO)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of SIMO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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SIMO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.28%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $227.8H $227.8L $187.9C $187.9VOL 1.33M
RES: $277.9SUP: $173.7SMA50: $247.3SMA200: $216.3
$372.5$299.9$227.3$154.6$81.99RES $277.9SUP $173.7$187.92026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SIMO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ SIMO Butterfly Map β†’ + Track SIMO β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
42.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SIMO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SIMO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SIMO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SIMO)

Technology Rank #357 of 715 βš”οΈ FORM vs SIMO Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SIMO vs. FORM, VIAV, SLAB, MXL)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) ranks #357 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #178 by equity capitalization ($7.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SIMO leads on earnings valuation at 63.0x trailing P/E, while VIAV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and 57.7% gross margin. SLAB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with SIMO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SIMO ACTIVE
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
D 48/100 63.0x 48.3% 9.3% -9.94% $7.07B Benchmark Subject
FORM
FormFactor Inc. FormFactor Inc.
D 48/100 140.1x 39.3% 4.8% -0.26% $6.84B /form-vs-simo β†’
VIAV
Viavi Solutions Inc.
D 48/100 β€” 57.7% 9.4% -7.09% $7.41B /viav-vs-simo β†’
SLAB
Silicon Laboratories Inc.
C 65/100 β€” 58.2% -6.9% -0.16% $7.42B /slab-vs-simo β†’
MXL
MaxLinear Inc.
C- 59/100 β€” 56.8% -19.2% -9.10% $6.14B /mxl-vs-simo β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001329394 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) reported GAAP revenue of $885.6M (+10.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $803.6M , and +38.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $122.6M, operating cash flow of $61.4M, and free cash flow of $6.3M (-80.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SIMO closed FY2025 with $1.22B in total assets against $176.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.92, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $885.6M $122.6M $61.4M $6.3M $1.22B $176.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $803.6M $89.2M $77.1M $32.7M $1.03B $116.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $639.1M $52.9M $149.1M $120.3M $4.25B $993.9M

3. SIMO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SIMO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: SIMO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $187.90 (-9.94% 1D, market cap $7.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Active quantitative signal ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does SIMO compare to FORM and VIAV in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), SIMO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 63.0x, gross margin of 48.3%, and ROIC of 9.3%. By comparison, FORM (FormFactor Inc. FormFactor Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 140.1x, ROIC 4.8%, cap $6.84B) and VIAV (Viavi Solutions Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.4%, cap $7.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SIMO leads on earnings multiple (63.0x) while VIAV leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SIMO?

Per SIMO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001329394), Silicon Motion Technology Corporation generated $885.6M in revenue (+10.2% YoY), $122.6M in net income, and $6.3M in free cash flow against $1.22B in total assets and $176.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flowβ€”monitor working-capital conversion. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SIMO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SIMO last traded at $187.90 (-9.94% on volume of 1,679,791 shares), positioning the stock -24.00% below its 50-day simple moving average ($247.25) and -13.15% below its 200-day simple moving average ($216.34). Across its 52-week range of $79.76 to $355.00, SIMO sits at the 39.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($164.41 to $211.39).

Direct Sub-Reports: SIMO RQD Cockpit SIMO 12M Forecast SIMO Earnings & Move SIMO Dividends & DRIP SIMO Insiders & 13F SIMO Whale Options SIMO Profit Sankey SIMO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 48/100 (D) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SIMO β€” Silicon Motion Technology Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $187.90 (-9.94% 1D, market capitalization $7.07B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.3%, gross margin of 48.3%, operating margin of 10.5%, and free cash flow yield of 0.08%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.34x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 13.92, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Technology sector and Semiconductors industry,. Business description details, product lines, customer base, and revenue model are β€” The profile reports a market capitalization of $7.7B. Per the market data, gross margin is 48.3%, operating margin is 10.5%, and net margin is 13.8%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) reported $885.6M in annual revenue (up from $803.6M in FY2024, +10.2% YoY) and $122.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($639.1M revenue, $52.9M net income) through FY2025, SIMO scaled operating cash flow to $61.4M and free cash flow to $6.3M, backed by $1.22B in total assets against $176.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D β€’ RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 0.08% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $79.76 – $355.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flowβ€”monitor working-capital conversion. Investors must weigh 63.0x trailing P/E and 55.0x EV/EBITDA against 10.5% operating margins and a 1.34x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependency mapping is β€” Sector correlations beyond the Technology/Semiconductors classification are β€” The primary second-order item to watch is the accrual signal: if working-capital growth continues to outpace cash generation, the earnings-to-cash gap could persist into subsequent reporting periods. The scheduled third-quarter 2026 earnings call, per the news wire, is the nearest checkpoint for cash-realization evidence.

  • Key Question #1: Can SIMO sustain or expand its 10.5% operating margin and 9.3% ROIC against Semiconductors peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $885.6M and free cash flow of $6.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $176.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SIMO's 58.6x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.34x)?

SIMO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to SIMO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SIMO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $187.90?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SIMO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SIMO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $242.03 (+16.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Net income grew to $122.6M in FY 2025 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and debt reported down from $993.9M to $176.4M, providing balance

Picked up a starter position in SIMO in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $208.65. Net income grew to $122.6M in FY 2025 with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and debt reported down from $993.9M to $176.4M, providing balance-sheet strength.. Trading inside a $79.76–$355.00 52-week range with 0.08% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Semiconductors multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” SIMO's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $160.66 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $208.65

Operating cash flow fell 20.4% while net income rose 37.4%, with FCF yield at 0.08% and a 63x trailing P/E, leaving valuation dependent

Careful chasing SIMO at $208.65. Operating cash flow fell 20.4% while net income rose 37.4%, with FCF yield at 0.08% and a 63x trailing P/E, leaving valuation dependent on cash realization.. Gross margin is 48.3%, but operating margin is 10.5%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $160.66 on multiple compression.

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