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SM Energy Company (SM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$37.44 -7.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.04

SM Energy Company (SM) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 82/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE A- • BUY Cap $9.60B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $37.44 (-7.28% 1D, market cap $9.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SM ranks #6 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SM compare to CHRD and SSL in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SM carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.7%, cap $8.59B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SM?
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Per SM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893538), SM Energy Company generated $3.15B in revenue (+17.2% YoY), $648.0M in net income, and $1.87B in free cash flow against $9.25B in total assets and $2.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.04 (-1.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 59.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 82/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.9% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • A-
025507510082
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw A- · Rk B+
Cash (15)Whales (17)SEC (14)Macro (18)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+10.8% Base Target
$49 Bull$41 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE SM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (82/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SM SCORES 82/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 6 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
90
Grade A+$38.22+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
87
Grade A$38.61+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
85
Grade A$39.56-5.4% Next Q
Current
82
Grade A-$37.44+8.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A+ (90) → A- (82)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 82/100 (A-) score, SM faces multiple-compression risk if 14.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.35) or 200D SMA ($30.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.48) toward Bear Floor ($30.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 82%NO 18%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SM Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $37.44: 267.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $30.70
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $41.48
$11,079
+$1,079 (+10.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $48.95
$13,074
+$3,074 (+30.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$4374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$4669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SM Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
SM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.31%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $39.58H $40.38L $37.44C $37.44VOL 2.61M
RES: $48.72SUP: $35.61SMA50: $37.35SMA200: $30.66
$42.80$37.66$32.51$27.36$22.21RES $48.72SUP $35.61$37.442026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SM Butterfly Map → + Track SM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SM)

Energy Rank #6 of 211 ⚔️ CHRD vs SM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (SM vs. CHRD, SSL, VIST, NE)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SM Energy Company (SM) ranks #6 by composite RQD confidence (82/100, grade A-) and #59 by equity capitalization ($9.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while SM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 82/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SM ACTIVE
SM Energy Company
A- 82/100 14.5x — 12.5% -7.28% $9.60B Benchmark Subject
CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
C+ 67/100 — 80.0% 1.7% -6.11% $8.59B /chrd-vs-sm →
SSL
Sasol Ltd.
B 72/100 32.8x — 9.9% -8.19% $11.15B /ssl-vs-sm →
VIST
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American
C 64/100 32.8x — 9.9% -5.05% $7.84B /vist-vs-sm →
NE
Noble Corporation plc A
C+ 69/100 35.0x — 5.4% -7.22% $7.82B /ne-vs-sm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000893538 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SM Energy Company (SM) reported GAAP revenue of $3.15B (+17.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.69B , and +32.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $648.0M, operating cash flow of $2.01B, and free cash flow of $1.87B (+12.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, SM closed FY2025 with $9.25B in total assets against $2.17B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.42, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.15B $648.0M $2.01B $1.87B $9.25B $2.17B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.69B $770.0M $1.78B $1.66B $8.58B $2.01B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.37B $818.0M $1.57B $1.47B $5.18B $1.21B

3. SM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $37.44 (-7.28% 1D, market cap $9.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SM ranks #6 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SM compare to CHRD and SSL in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SM carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.7%, cap $8.59B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SM?

Per SM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893538), SM Energy Company generated $3.15B in revenue (+17.2% YoY), $648.0M in net income, and $1.87B in free cash flow against $9.25B in total assets and $2.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SM last traded at $37.44 (-7.28% on volume of 3,810,231 shares), positioning the stock +0.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.35) and +22.11% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.66). Across its 52-week range of $17.45 to $41.56, SM sits at the 82.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($35.23 to $39.65).

Direct Sub-Reports: SM RQD Cockpit SM 12M Forecast SM Earnings & Move SM Dividends & DRIP SM Insiders & 13F SM Whale Options SM Profit Sankey SM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 82/100 (A-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SM — SM Energy Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

SM Energy Company (SM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 82/100, corresponding to a A- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $37.44 (-7.28% 1D, market capitalization $9.60B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 31.7%, and free cash flow yield of 19.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (18/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 0.94x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.42, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

The profile identifies SM Energy Company as a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry, with a market capitalization of $9.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), SM Energy Company (SM) reported $3.15B in annual revenue (up from $2.69B in FY2024, +17.2% YoY) and $648.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.37B revenue, $818.0M net income) through FY2025, SM scaled operating cash flow to $2.01B and free cash flow to $1.87B, backed by $9.25B in total assets against $2.17B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (A- • RQD 82/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.45 – $41.56 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.5x trailing P/E and 9.7x EV/EBITDA against 31.7% operating margins and a 0.94x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil & Gas Production (Energy), SM carries a macro regime beta of 0.94 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can SM sustain or expand its 31.7% operating margin and 12.5% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.15B and free cash flow of $1.87B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.17B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SM's 12.2x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.94x)?

SM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for SM Energy Company (SM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $37.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.67 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Roarable rates SM a Buy with an 82 RQD score, supported by a 19.85% FCF yield and a forward P/E of 12.2.

The street is overcomplicating SM Energy Company (SM). Roarable rates SM a Buy with an 82 RQD score, supported by a 19.85% FCF yield and a forward P/E of 12.2.. With an RQD score of 82/100 (A-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $43.61.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 17/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $40.38 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Energy.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.92 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $40.38

Net income fell from $818.0M in FY 2023 to $648.0M in FY 2025 while debt climbed from $1.21B to $2.17B.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SM above $40.38. Net income fell from $818.0M in FY 2023 to $648.0M in FY 2025 while debt climbed from $1.21B to $2.17B.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (19.85%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $41.56.

LIVE TAPE