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Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$72.26 +2.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.41

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $778.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SMBC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: SMBC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $72.26 (+2.21% 1D, market cap $778.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SMBC ranks #279 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMBC compare to TCBX and HIFS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Banks), SMBC carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, TCBX (Third Coast Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 10.2x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $664.4M) and HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $646.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMBC?
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Per SMBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000916907), Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $58.6M in net income, and $75.3M in free cash flow against $5.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.41 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 3.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$88 Bull$74 Base$58 Bear
📬 FREE SMBC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SMBC SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.5% FCF Margin ($75.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$69.42+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$71.15+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$72.30-0.1% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$72.26+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, SMBC faces multiple-compression risk if 13.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($71.97) or 200D SMA ($69.72) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($74.21) toward Bear Floor ($57.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SMBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SMBC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $72.26: 138.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $57.88
$8,010
$-1,990 (-19.9%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $74.21
$10,270
+$270 (+2.7%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $87.57
$12,119
+$2,119 (+21.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$7774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$8269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$6658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SMBC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SMBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.48%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $71.84H $72.26L $70.70C $72.26VOL 109.7K
RES: $73.70SUP: $67.26SMA50: $71.97SMA200: $69.72
$81.33$75.25$69.18$63.11$57.04RES $73.70SUP $67.26$72.262026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMBC Butterfly Map → + Track SMBC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMBC)

Financials Rank #279 of 1097 ⚔️ TCBX vs SMBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SMBC vs. TCBX, HIFS, NBBK, GCBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) ranks #279 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #602 by equity capitalization ($778.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. GCBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with SMBC at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMBC ACTIVE
Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.
C 64/100 13.5x — 10.3% +2.21% $778.6M Benchmark Subject
TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares Inc.
D+ 55/100 10.2x — 12.5% +1.96% $664.4M /tcbx-vs-smbc →
HIFS
Hingham Institution for Savings
D+ 53/100 — — — +3.10% $646.6M /hifs-vs-smbc →
NBBK
NB Bancorp Inc.
C 63/100 19.7x — 5.9% +1.76% $969.7M /nbbk-vs-smbc →
GCBC
Greene County Bancorp Inc.
C+ 67/100 19.6x — 12.1% +2.32% $608.8M /gcbc-vs-smbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0000916907 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) reported GAAP revenue of $2.14B (+3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and +807.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $58.6M, operating cash flow of $81.6M, and free cash flow of $75.3M (+23.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMBC closed FY2025 with $5.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $2.14B $58.6M $81.6M $75.3M $5.09B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $2.06B $50.2M $70.3M $61.2M $4.91B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $235.7M $39.2M $62.0M $62.0M — —

3. SMBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: SMBC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $72.26 (+2.21% 1D, market cap $778.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SMBC ranks #279 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMBC compare to TCBX and HIFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), SMBC carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, TCBX (Third Coast Bancshares Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 10.2x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $664.4M) and HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $646.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMBC?

Per SMBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000916907), Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $58.6M in net income, and $75.3M in free cash flow against $5.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMBC last traded at $72.26 (+2.21% on volume of 72,609 shares), positioning the stock +0.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($71.97) and +3.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($69.72). Across its 52-week range of $51.46 to $79.86, SMBC sits at the 73.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($69.23 to $75.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: SMBC RQD Cockpit SMBC 12M Forecast SMBC Earnings & Move SMBC Dividends & DRIP SMBC Insiders & 13F SMBC Whale Options SMBC Profit Sankey SMBC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SMBC — Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $72.26 (+2.21% 1D, market capitalization $778.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 9.52%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Banks industry. The profile identifies it as operating in banking with a market capitalization of $0.8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) reported $2.14B in annual revenue (up from $2.06B in FY2024, +3.8% YoY) and $58.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($235.7M revenue, $39.2M net income) through FY2025, SMBC scaled operating cash flow to $81.6M and free cash flow to $75.3M, backed by $5.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 9.52% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $51.46 – $79.86 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 13.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Banks (Financials), SMBC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can SMBC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 10.3% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.14B and free cash flow of $75.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SMBC's 12.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SMBC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. (SMBC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMBC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMBC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $72.26?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMBC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMBC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $87.67 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 9.52% FCF yield on a 13.5 trailing P/E suggest cash generation is priced modestly.

Here is why I am bullish on SMBC here at $70.70: Insider conviction (16/20) and a 9.52% FCF yield on a 13.5 trailing P/E suggest cash generation is priced modestly.. Compare SMBC's 0.0% operating margin and 10.3% ROIC against the rest of Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $67.17 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SMBC's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $60.80 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $70.70

Institutional flow (10/20) and macro fit (13/20) are weak, and every recent headline is tagged RED / RISK WATCH.

Institutional flow (10/20) and macro fit (13/20) are weak, and every recent headline is tagged RED / RISK WATCH.. Look at the math on SMBC: paying 13.5x trailing P/E for 10.3% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Banks demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $62.22 before getting long.

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