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VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$508.31 -7.50% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $500.48

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. As an exchange-traded fund, single-company GAAP gross margins, Altman-Z, and CEO Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for fund structure; its score reflects basket trend, institutional flow, and macro regime alignment.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $26.00B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $508.31 (-7.50% 1D, market cap $26.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 4/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, SMH ranks #30 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMH compare to TQQQ and XLY in the ETF / Index sector?
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Within the ETF / Index sector (Semiconductors & AI Hardware), SMH carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ (3x Bull)) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $25.00B) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $22.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SMH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SMH leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMH?
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For VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), key quantitative strengths include Diversified Semiconductors & AI Hardware basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk and Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $500.48 (-1.54%)🧬 ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • Liquid Basket
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Fund (11)Whales (15)Struct (10)Macro (5)Flow (4)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target
$705 Bull$479 Base$373 Bear
📬 FREE SMH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SMH SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (24% of score)

ETF liquidity & tracking efficiency ($26.00B AUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
53
Grade C-$564.74-1.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$556.70+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
48
Grade D$567.67-10.5% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$508.31-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SMH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SMH currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Diversified Semiconductors & AI Hardware basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (ETF Open-End Share Creation/Redemption) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SMH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Quarterly Rebalance / Distribution) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.3% Total Yield
1.3% Cash ($6.61/yr) + 0% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
30.2% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $18,422

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $239/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.3K
Yr 2
$12.0K
Yr 3
$12.8K
Yr 4
$13.6K
Yr 5
$14.4K
Yr 6
$15.3K
Yr 7
$16.3K
Yr 8
$17.3K
Yr 9
$18.4K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SMH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SMH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SMH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $547.5H $547.5L $508.3C $508.3VOL 17.30M
RES: $662.9SUP: $468.8SMA50: $570.4SMA200: $521.3
$693.4$604.1$514.7$425.4$336.0RES $662.9SUP $468.8$508.32026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMH Butterfly Map → + Track SMH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
ETF / Index Composite — N/A for Fund Structure

Single-issuer corporate Reverse-DCF growth hurdles do not apply to index funds or ETFs.

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMH)

ETF / Index Rank #30 of 40 ⚔️ TQQQ vs SMH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head ETF / Index Peer Comparison (SMH vs. TQQQ, XLY, XLI, JEPQ)

Industry: Semiconductors & AI Hardware (1 Tracked Issuers)

Across 40 tracked ETF / Index securities in the Roarable RQD universe, VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) ranks #30 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #17 by equity capitalization ($26.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SMH leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SMH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with ETF composite structure and benchmark tracking. XLY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with SMH at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMH ACTIVE
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
D 45/100 — — — -7.50% $26.00B Benchmark Subject
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (3x Bull)
E 34/100 — — — -11.69% $25.00B /tqqq-vs-smh →
XLY
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR
C+ 67/100 — — — -0.71% $22.00B /xly-vs-smh →
XLI
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund
D+ 53/100 — — — -1.63% $21.00B /xli-vs-smh →
JEPQ
JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF
D 44/100 — — — -3.13% $21.00B /jepq-vs-smh →

2. SMH ETF Structure, Technical Regime & Benchmark Role Breakdown

EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND / COMPOSITE VEHICLE • NASDAQ

Because VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is structured as an exchange-traded fund / composite basket rather than a single operating corporation filing 10-K GAAP income statements, Roarable evaluates SMH on technical trend regime, moving-average dispersion, 52-week range positioning, relative strength (RSI-14), and secondary-market share volume liquidity. At $508.31, SMH trades vs. its 50-day SMA of $570.42 and 200-day SMA of $521.33 on daily liquidity of 17,300,090 shares.

50D SMA Level
$570.42
Medium-Term Trend Anchor
200D SMA Level
$521.33
Institutional Secular Line
52-Week Range Pos
54.0%
$315.05 – $671.83
RSI-14 Momentum
33.7
NEUTRAL RANGE
Volume Liquidity
17,300,090
AUM Cap $26.00B

3. SMH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $508.31 (-7.50% 1D, market cap $26.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 4/20. Across 40 tracked ETF / Index issuers, SMH ranks #30 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMH compare to TQQQ and XLY in the ETF / Index sector?

Within the ETF / Index sector (Semiconductors & AI Hardware), SMH carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of N/A (ETF), and ROIC of N/A (ETF). By comparison, TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ (3x Bull)) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $25.00B) and XLY (Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $22.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SMH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SMH leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMH?

For VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), key quantitative strengths include Diversified Semiconductors & AI Hardware basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk and Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand., while primary risk factors center on Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures and Underlying index basket remains sensitive to Federal Reserve liquidity and Treasury yield swings.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMH last traded at $508.31 (-7.50% on volume of 17,300,090 shares), positioning the stock -10.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($570.42) and -2.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($521.33). Across its 52-week range of $315.05 to $671.83, SMH sits at the 54.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($477.30 to $539.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: SMH RQD Cockpit SMH 12M Forecast SMH Earnings & Move SMH Dividends & DRIP SMH Insiders & 13F SMH Whale Options SMH Profit Sankey SMH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SMH — VanEck Semiconductor ETF: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $508.31 (-7.50% 1D, market capitalization $26.00B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (4/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) operates in the Semiconductors & AI Hardware industry (ETF / Index sector) with an equity capitalization of $26.00B, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and return on invested capital (ROIC) of —.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Diversified Semiconductors & AI Hardware basket eliminates single-company earnings blowup risk. Institutional 13F desks and index options flow show constructive basket demand. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $315.05 – $671.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Corporate GAAP gross margin, Altman-Z, and Form 4 insider metrics are N/A for ETF fund structures. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Semiconductors & AI Hardware (ETF / Index), SMH carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can SMH sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Semiconductors & AI Hardware peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $671.83 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SMH's equity valuation to ETF / Index capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SMH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $508.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $670.97 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Whale 13F flow pillar scores 15 of 20, indicating institutional accumulation and options positioning support.

Long SMH at $508.31 targeting $670.97. The Whale 13F flow pillar scores 15 of 20, indicating institutional accumulation and options positioning support.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $315.05 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $508.31 is dangerous when funds are rotating into ETF / Index.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $426.98 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $508.31

The fund carries a beta of 1.0 and an Insider Conviction pillar score of only 6 of 20, offering little defensive cushion or insider bac

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SMH above $508.31. The fund carries a beta of 1.0 and an Insider Conviction pillar score of only 6 of 20, offering little defensive cushion or insider backing.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $671.83.

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