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SD (61) WTI (62) EGY (46) GTE (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.48 +0.81% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.48

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $472.0M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SOC Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SOC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE: SOC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $2.48 (+0.81% 1D, market cap $472.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SOC ranks #197 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SOC compare to SD and WTI in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SOC carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SD (SandRidge Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $498.3M) and WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $556.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SD leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while SD leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOC?
β–Ό

Per SOC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831481), Sable Offshore Corp. generated $1.14B in revenue (+25.0% YoY), -$410.2M in net income, and -$351.7M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.48 (-0.04%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510027
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (7)Macro (11)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.1% Base Target
$20 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE SOC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SOC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY SOC SCORES 27/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (41% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 2% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 26.2 (OVERSOLD (<32))

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$3.36-5.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
32
Grade E$3.17-3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$3.06-19% Next Q
Current
27
Grade E$2.48-10.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (35) β†’ E (27)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SOC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While SOC currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.86) and Max Pain ($2.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.21.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SOCβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œSOC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How SOC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)
Revenue$1.14BGross Profit $594.5M (52%)Cost of Sales $548.7MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $594.5MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $264.5M
FY24
Rev $914.9M
FY25
Rev $1.14B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$1.14B52%-35.7%-$410.2M-$351.7M-45%
FY 2024$914.9M52%-35.7%-$617.3M-$163.0M-45%
FY 2023$264.5M52%-35.7%-$93.7M-$70.1M-35%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SOC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of SOC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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SOC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -82.61%β–Ό SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $2.75H $2.75L $2.46C $2.48VOL 11.98M
RES: $5.45SUP: $2.74SMA50: $3.86SMA200: $8.71
$17.03$13.08$9.13$5.18$1.23RES $5.45SUP $2.74$2.482026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SOC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ SOC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track SOC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SOC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SOC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SOC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SOC)

Energy Rank #197 of 211 βš”οΈ SD vs SOC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (SOC vs. SD, WTI, EGY, GTE)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) ranks #197 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #153 by equity capitalization ($472.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SD leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while SD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and β€” gross margin. WTI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with SOC at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SOC ACTIVE
Sable Offshore Corp.
E 27/100 β€” β€” -35.0% +0.81% $472.0M Benchmark Subject
SD
SandRidge Energy Inc.
C- 61/100 7.7x β€” 12.0% -0.45% $498.3M /sd-vs-soc β†’
WTI
W&T Offshore Inc.
C 62/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -1.39% $556.1M /wti-vs-soc β†’
EGY
VAALCO Energy Inc.
D 46/100 β€” β€” -4.2% -3.28% $610.1M /egy-vs-soc β†’
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
D+ 52/100 β€” 55.5% -35.0% -0.19% $363.7M /gte-vs-soc β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001831481 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.14B (+25.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $914.9M , and +332.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$410.2M, operating cash flow of -$351.7M, and free cash flow of -$351.7M (-115.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SOC closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.14B -$410.2M -$351.7M -$351.7M $1.74B $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $914.9M -$617.3M -$163.0M -$163.0M $1.58B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $264.5M -$93.7M -$70.1M -$70.1M β€” β€”

3. SOC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SOC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE: SOC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $2.48 (+0.81% 1D, market cap $472.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SOC ranks #197 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SOC compare to SD and WTI in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SOC carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SD (SandRidge Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 12.0%, cap $498.3M) and WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $556.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SD leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while SD leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOC?

Per SOC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001831481), Sable Offshore Corp. generated $1.14B in revenue (+25.0% YoY), -$410.2M in net income, and -$351.7M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SOC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SOC last traded at $2.48 (+0.81% on volume of 7,181,316 shares), positioning the stock -35.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.86) and -71.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.71). Across its 52-week range of $2.46 to $19.25, SOC sits at the 0.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 26.2 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($2.17 to $2.79).

Direct Sub-Reports: SOC RQD Cockpit SOC 12M Forecast SOC Earnings & Move SOC Dividends & DRIP SOC Insiders & 13F SOC Whale Options SOC Profit Sankey SOC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 27/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SOC β€” Sable Offshore Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 27/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.48 (+0.81% 1D, market capitalization $472.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of β€”.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sable Offshore Corp. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating in the Oil & Gas Production industry. The profile does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) reported $1.14B in annual revenue (up from $914.9M in FY2024, +25.0% YoY) and -$410.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($264.5M revenue, -$93.7M net income) through FY2025, SOC scaled operating cash flow to -$351.7M and free cash flow to -$351.7M, backed by $1.74B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 27/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of β€” and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.46 – $19.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector correlations and second-order bottlenecks are β€” The news wire's pipeline-related headline suggests regulatory and permitting developments may be a sensitivity, but the graph does not quantify any linkage.

  • Key Question #1: Can SOC sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.14B and free cash flow of -$351.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SOC's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SOC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to SOC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SOC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $2.48?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SOC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SOC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Price Action & Volume Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.57 (+29.8%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

A federal judge clearing the California pipeline is a near-term catalyst that could support the stock's recent move.

Here is why I am bullish on SOC here at $2.75: A federal judge clearing the California pipeline is a near-term catalyst that could support the stock's recent move.. Compare SOC's 0.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Oil & Gas Production. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.61 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil & Gas Production. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.36 (-14.2%)
Spot @ $2.75

A 27/100 RQD score with ROIC of -35%, Altman Z of 0.2, and zero reported revenue signals severe forensic and cash-generation risk.

A 27/100 RQD score with ROIC of -35%, Altman Z of 0.2, and zero reported revenue signals severe forensic and cash-generation risk.. Look at the math on SOC: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil & Gas Production demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $2.42 before getting long.

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