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South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$44.36 +1.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.37

South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $829.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SPFI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SPFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, South Plains Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: SPFI) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $44.36 (+1.23% 1D, market cap $829.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SPFI ranks #140 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SPFI compare to SMBK and ALRS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), SPFI carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.8%. By comparison, SMBK (SmartFinancial Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $828.8M) and ALRS (Alerus Financial Corporation) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 47.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $826.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPFI?
▼

Per SPFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001163668), South Plains Financial Inc. generated $1.88B in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $58.5M in net income, and $71.8M in free cash flow against $4.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.37 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 3.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$55 Bull$47 Base$36 Bear
📬 FREE SPFI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPFI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPFI SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.8% FCF Margin ($71.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$42.72+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$43.78+0% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$43.76+1.4% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$44.36+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPFI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, SPFI faces multiple-compression risk if 14.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.56) or 200D SMA ($42.64) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.56) toward Bear Floor ($36.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPFI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPFI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SPFI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $44.36: 225.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $36.32
$8,188
$-1,812 (-18.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $46.56
$10,496
+$496 (+5.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $54.94
$12,385
+$2,385 (+23.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$5269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$4158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SPFI Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
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SPFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.07%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $44.19H $44.36L $44.01C $44.36VOL 88.4K
RES: $45.23SUP: $40.51SMA50: $43.56SMA200: $42.64
$47.52$45.11$42.69$40.28$37.86RES $45.23SUP $40.51$44.362026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPFI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPFI Butterfly Map → + Track SPFI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPFI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPFI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPFI)

Financials Rank #140 of 1097 ⚔️ SMBK vs SPFI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SPFI vs. SMBK, ALRS, RCBC, IBCP)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) ranks #140 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #587 by equity capitalization ($829.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IBCP leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. IBCP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SPFI at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SPFI ACTIVE
South Plains Financial Inc.
C+ 69/100 14.2x — 11.8% +1.23% $829.1M Benchmark Subject
SMBK
SmartFinancial Inc.
C- 61/100 16.7x — 9.1% +1.77% $828.8M /smbk-vs-spfi →
ALRS
Alerus Financial Corporation
C 63/100 47.2x — 3.1% +4.40% $826.8M /alrs-vs-spfi →
RCBC
River City Bank
C- 61/100 — — — +0.97% $823.4M /rcbc-vs-spfi →
IBCP
Independent Bank Corporation
B- 70/100 12.0x — 13.6% +2.13% $807.5M /ibcp-vs-spfi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001163668 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.88B (+5.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.78B , and +566.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $58.5M, operating cash flow of $77.5M, and free cash flow of $71.8M (+28.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPFI closed FY2025 with $4.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.88B $58.5M $77.5M $71.8M $4.48B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.78B $49.7M $59.4M $56.0M $4.23B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $282.4M $62.7M $58.5M $58.5M — —

3. SPFI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, South Plains Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: SPFI) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $44.36 (+1.23% 1D, market cap $829.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SPFI ranks #140 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SPFI compare to SMBK and ALRS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), SPFI carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.8%. By comparison, SMBK (SmartFinancial Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $828.8M) and ALRS (Alerus Financial Corporation) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 47.2x, ROIC 3.1%, cap $826.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPFI?

Per SPFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001163668), South Plains Financial Inc. generated $1.88B in revenue (+5.9% YoY), $58.5M in net income, and $71.8M in free cash flow against $4.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPFI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPFI last traded at $44.36 (+1.23% on volume of 149,521 shares), positioning the stock +1.84% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.56) and +4.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.64). Across its 52-week range of $35.70 to $46.94, SPFI sits at the 77.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($42.36 to $46.36).

Direct Sub-Reports: SPFI RQD Cockpit SPFI 12M Forecast SPFI Earnings & Move SPFI Dividends & DRIP SPFI Insiders & 13F SPFI Whale Options SPFI Profit Sankey SPFI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SPFI — South Plains Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $44.36 (+1.23% 1D, market capitalization $829.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 8.63%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and Major Banks industry. — for product lines, customer base, or revenue model detail. The profile describes the company only at the level of sector, industry, exchange, and market capitalization.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) reported $1.88B in annual revenue (up from $1.78B in FY2024, +5.9% YoY) and $58.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($282.4M revenue, $62.7M net income) through FY2025, SPFI scaled operating cash flow to $77.5M and free cash flow to $71.8M, backed by $4.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $35.70 – $46.94 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.2x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The butterfly supply-chain graph lists supply chain as NONE, with no upstream or downstream links and no sector correlation links. Investors should note that no source data quantifies sector correlations or second-order bottlenecks for this issuer.

  • Key Question #1: Can SPFI sustain or expand its — operating margin and 11.8% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.88B and free cash flow of $71.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SPFI's 13.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SPFI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SPFI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SPFI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $44.36?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SPFI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SPFI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $57.65 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 16 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, alongside a 1.21% dividend yield and an 8.63% FCF

Don't sleep on SPFI's setup in Financials. Insider conviction scores 16 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, alongside a 1.21% dividend yield and an 8.63% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (69/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 14.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $35.65 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $44.01

Revenue and operating income are reported as $0.0M in every period while margins show 0%, leaving the cash-generation case unverified b

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SPFI above $44.01. Revenue and operating income are reported as $0.0M in every period while margins show 0%, leaving the cash-generation case unverified by the income statement.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (8.63%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $46.94.

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