How profitable is Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SUPN converted $719.0M of revenue into a 89.6% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $46.0M in free cash flow (6.4% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Health Care / SUPN / financials

ZLAB (28) PGEN (33) NAMS (26) PHVS (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$41.92 +0.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.85

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.44B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SUPN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SUPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-03, Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SUPN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $41.92 (+0.19% 1D, market cap $2.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, SUPN ranks #189 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SUPN compare to ZLAB and PGEN in the Health Care sector?

▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SUPN carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 89.6%, and ROIC of -4.5%. By comparison, ZLAB (Zai Lab Limited) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B) and PGEN (Precigen Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.48B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SUPN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SUPN leads on capital efficiency (-4.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SUPN?

▼

Per SUPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001356576), Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $719.0M in revenue (+8.6% YoY), -$38.6M in net income, and $46.0M in free cash flow against $1.45B in total assets and $175.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.85 (-0.16%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 6.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SUPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SUPN SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.84 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.4% FCF Margin ($46.0M FCF) & 89.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$40.18+2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$41.21-0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$41.08+2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$41.92-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SUPN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, SUPN faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 87.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.29) or 200D SMA ($47.16) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($41.73) toward Bear Floor ($32.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SUPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SUPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SUPN Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$46.0M (6.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $607.5M

FY24

Rev $661.8M

FY25

Rev $719.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$719.0M	89.6%	-8.7%	-$38.6M	$46.0M	-4.4%
FY 2024	$661.8M	88.2%	12.3%	$73.9M	$171.2M	5.8%
FY 2023	$607.5M	89.6%	-0.9%	$1.3M	$83.7M	-0.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SUPN)

✓Walkthrough of SUPN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SUPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $41.84H $41.92L $41.84C $41.92VOL 2.82M

RES: $43.87SUP: $36.27SMA50: $42.29SMA200: $47.16

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SUPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SUPN Butterfly Map → + Track SUPN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

15.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SUPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SUPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SUPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SUPN)

Health Care Rank #189 of 1015 ⚔️ ZLAB vs SUPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SUPN vs. ZLAB, PGEN, NAMS, PHVS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) ranks #189 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #221 by equity capitalization ($2.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SUPN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SUPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -4.5% ROIC and 89.6% gross margin. PHVS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with SUPN at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SUPN ACTIVE Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D+	57/100	—	89.6%	-4.5%	+0.19%	$2.44B	Benchmark Subject
ZLAB Zai Lab Limited	E	28/100	—	58.3%	-35.0%	-1.83%	$2.48B	/zlab-vs-supn →
PGEN Precigen Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-25.94%	$2.48B	/pgen-vs-supn →
NAMS NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V.	E	26/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.49%	$2.40B	/nams-vs-supn →
PHVS Pharvaris N.V.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$2.34B	/phvs-vs-supn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001356576 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) reported GAAP revenue of $719.0M (+8.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $661.8M , and +18.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.6M, operating cash flow of $47.3M, and free cash flow of $46.0M (-73.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SUPN closed FY2025 with $1.45B in total assets against $175.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.84, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$719.0M	-$38.6M	$47.3M	$46.0M	$1.45B	$175.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$661.8M	$73.9M	$172.0M	$171.2M	$1.37B	$149.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$607.5M	$1.3M	$111.1M	$83.7M	$1.34B	$313.0M

3. SUPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SUPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SUPN compare to ZLAB and PGEN in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SUPN?

Where is SUPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SUPN last traded at $41.92 (+0.19% on volume of 2,818,907 shares), positioning the stock -0.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($42.29) and -11.11% below its 200-day simple moving average ($47.16). Across its 52-week range of $37.54 to $59.68, SUPN sits at the 19.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.6% ($37.90 to $45.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: SUPN RQD Cockpit SUPN 12M Forecast SUPN Earnings & Move SUPN Dividends & DRIP SUPN Insiders & 13F SUPN Whale Options SUPN Profit Sankey SUPN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SUPN — Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $41.92 (+0.19% 1D, market capitalization $2.44B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -4.5%, gross margin of 89.6%, operating margin of -8.7%, and free cash flow yield of 1.89%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.84, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The financials section reports revenue of $719.0M for FY 2025, indicating a substantial commercial operation. Gross margin is 89.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) reported $719.0M in annual revenue (up from $661.8M in FY2024, +8.6% YoY) and -$38.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($607.5M revenue, $1.3M net income) through FY2025, SUPN scaled operating cash flow to $47.3M and free cash flow to $46.0M, backed by $1.45B in total assets against $175.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 1.89% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $37.54 – $59.68 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against -8.7% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), SUPN carries a macro regime beta of 0.88 and gross margin of 89.6%.

Key Question #1: Can SUPN sustain or expand its -8.7% operating margin and -4.5% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $719.0M and free cash flow of $46.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $175.9M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SUPN's 22.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

SUPN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SUPN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Supernus Pharmaceuticals: The Merger Is Priced Like A Retreat, But Reads Like A Reverse Takeover

Seeking Alpha report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Supernus Pharmaceuticals earnings: what to look for from SUPN

TradingView report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST GuruFocus • 1d ago

Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) a Bargain After 3.3% Drop? GF Value Says Undervalued

GuruFocus report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockStory • 1d ago

Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:SUPN) delivers impressive Q3 2026, full-year sales guidance is optimistic

StockStory report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

The results webcast will be available for 60 days after Supernus' Oct. 29 call.

Stock Titan report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 2d ago

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Benzinga report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 2d ago

How Investors May Respond To Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) FDA Approval For ONAPGO

Simply Wall St report covering Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SUPN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $41.92?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SUPN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.47 (+18.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $607.5M in FY 2023 to $719.0M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $313.0M to $175.9M, and the RQD forensic balance sheet

Here is why I am bullish on SUPN here at $41.92: Revenue grew from $607.5M in FY 2023 to $719.0M in FY 2025 while debt fell from $313.0M to $175.9M, and the RQD forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 4.84.. Compare SUPN's -8.7% operating margin and -4.5% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $39.82 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SUPN's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.70 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $41.92

Operating income swung from $81.7M in FY 2024 to -$62.3M in FY 2025, with ROIC at -4.5% and the RQD rating at 56 (D+, Trim).

I respect the product at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc., but the stock at $41.92 is a different story. Operating income swung from $81.7M in FY 2024 to -$62.3M in FY 2025, with ROIC at -4.5% and the RQD rating at 56 (D+, Trim).. FCF yield is 1.89% and RQD sits at 57/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?