Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why SW Stock advanced +1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
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Is SW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Smurfit WestRock plc (NYSE: SW) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $43.09 (+1.32% 1D, market cap $22.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SW ranks #408 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does SW compare to PKG and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), SW carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.9x, gross margin of 19.4%, and ROIC of 4.7%. By comparison, PKG (Packaging Corporation of America) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.3x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $22.88B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SW?
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Per SW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002005951), Smurfit WestRock plc generated $31.18B in revenue (+47.7% YoY), $699.0M in net income, and $1.99B in free cash flow against $45.16B in total assets and $12.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 1.49 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53) create a -12 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SW Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, SW faces multiple-compression risk if 31.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.60) or 200D SMA ($43.45) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.70) toward Bear Floor ($33.31).
Why SW Stock advanced +1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) advanced +1.32% to $43.09, trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($32.73 – $52.65). Stretched risk/reward at 32x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($32.73 – $52.65) with RSI-14 at 53 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $43.09 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 19.4% gross margin and $2.0B annual free cash flow.
Trefis report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
marketscreener.com report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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International Paper's 5.5% yield looks attractive until you examine where the dividend money is actually coming from. With free cash flow negative and capital spending elevated for years ahead, the math behind the payout
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SW)
- ✓Walkthrough of SW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
SW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +47.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SW today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SW)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SW vs. PKG, KMB, AVY, WMS)
Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) ranks #408 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #89 by equity capitalization ($22.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KMB leads on earnings valuation at 18.1x trailing P/E, while KMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 43.6% ROIC and 36.0% gross margin. PKG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SW at 56/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SW
ACTIVE
Smurfit WestRock plc | D+ | 56/100 | 31.9x | 19.4% | 4.7% | +1.32% | $22.60B | Benchmark Subject |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | B | 75/100 | 29.3x | 21.0% | 10.9% | +0.90% | $22.88B | /pkg-vs-sw → |
| KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation | B | 72/100 | 18.1x | 36.0% | 43.6% | -1.89% | $35.90B | /kmb-vs-sw → |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | B | 74/100 | 20.1x | 28.8% | 17.4% | +0.09% | $13.81B | /avy-vs-sw → |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 24.0x | 38.3% | 22.3% | -0.80% | $10.21B | /wms-vs-sw → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002005951 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) reported GAAP revenue of $31.18B (+47.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $21.11B , and +157.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $699.0M, operating cash flow of $3.39B, and free cash flow of $1.99B (+273.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SW closed FY2025 with $45.16B in total assets against $12.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.49, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $31.18B | $699.0M | $3.39B | $1.99B | $45.16B | $12.06B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $21.11B | $319.0M | $1.48B | $533.1M | $43.76B | $11.87B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $12.09B | $825.0M | $1.56B | $1.01B | $14.51B | $3.40B |
3. SW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Smurfit WestRock plc (NYSE: SW) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $43.09 (+1.32% 1D, market cap $22.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SW ranks #408 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SW compare to PKG and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), SW carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.9x, gross margin of 19.4%, and ROIC of 4.7%. By comparison, PKG (Packaging Corporation of America) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.3x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $22.88B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SW?
Per SW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002005951), Smurfit WestRock plc generated $31.18B in revenue (+47.7% YoY), $699.0M in net income, and $1.99B in free cash flow against $45.16B in total assets and $12.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SW last traded at $43.09 (+1.32% on volume of 5,248,696 shares), positioning the stock -1.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($43.60) and -0.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.45). Across its 52-week range of $32.73 to $52.65, SW sits at the 52.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($39.99 to $46.19).
SW — Smurfit WestRock plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $43.09 (+1.32% 1D, market capitalization $22.60B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.7%, gross margin of 19.4%, operating margin of 5.5%, and free cash flow yield of 8.92%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.49, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.61x.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry, profile. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 19.4%, an operating margin of 5.5%, and a net margin of 2.2%.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) reported $31.18B in annual revenue (up from $21.11B in FY2024, +47.7% YoY) and $699.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($12.09B revenue, $825.0M net income) through FY2025, SW scaled operating cash flow to $3.39B and free cash flow to $1.99B, backed by $45.16B in total assets against $12.06B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.92% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.73 – $52.65 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 31.9x trailing P/E and 11.2x EV/EBITDA against 5.5% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations are — The sector and industry classification (Consumer Discretionary / Containers/Packaging) is the only sector-level context provided.
- Key Question #1: Can SW sustain or expand its 5.5% operating margin and 4.7% ROIC against Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $31.18B and free cash flow of $1.99B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $12.06B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is SW's 26.8x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?
SW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
marketscreener.com report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
SW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.09?
An 8.92% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 point to cash generation and financial hygiene that could support the stock if the fo
Don't sleep on SW's setup in Consumer Discretionary. An 8.92% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 point to cash generation and financial hygiene that could support the stock if the forward P/E of 26.8 is realized.. Beta of 0.88 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (56/100) backs up the fundamental quality.
Both sides have a point here — SW's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
A 4.7% ROIC, an Altman Z-Score of 1.49, and a guidance-cut headline suggest weak returns and balance-sheet stress against a trailing P/
Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SW above $43.09. A 4.7% ROIC, an Altman Z-Score of 1.49, and a guidance-cut headline suggest weak returns and balance-sheet stress against a trailing P/E of 31.9.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (8.92%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $52.65.