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Why SW Stock advanced +1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$43.09 +1.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.11

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $22.60B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Smurfit WestRock plc (NYSE: SW) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $43.09 (+1.32% 1D, market cap $22.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SW ranks #408 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SW compare to PKG and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), SW carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.9x, gross margin of 19.4%, and ROIC of 4.7%. By comparison, PKG (Packaging Corporation of America) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.3x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $22.88B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SW?
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Per SW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002005951), Smurfit WestRock plc generated $31.18B in revenue (+47.7% YoY), $699.0M in net income, and $1.99B in free cash flow against $45.16B in total assets and $12.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.11 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 6.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (10)SEC (12)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$55 Bull$43 Base$33 Bear
📬 FREE SW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SW SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.49 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$40.75+1.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$41.46-2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$40.33+6.8% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$43.09-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, SW faces multiple-compression risk if 31.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.60) or 200D SMA ($43.45) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.70) toward Bear Floor ($33.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why SW Stock advanced +1.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) advanced +1.32% to $43.09, trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($32.73 – $52.65). Stretched risk/reward at 32x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($32.73 – $52.65) with RSI-14 at 53 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.2% around $43.09 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 19.4% gross margin and $2.0B annual free cash flow.
Live SW Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SW)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SW's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.48%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $42.53H $43.09L $42.53C $43.09VOL 5.25M
RES: $43.77SUP: $38.85SMA50: $43.60SMA200: $43.45
$53.14$48.37$43.60$38.82$34.05RES $43.77SUP $38.85$43.092026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +47.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SW)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #408 of 1009 ⚔️ PKG vs SW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SW vs. PKG, KMB, AVY, WMS)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) ranks #408 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #89 by equity capitalization ($22.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KMB leads on earnings valuation at 18.1x trailing P/E, while KMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 43.6% ROIC and 36.0% gross margin. PKG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SW at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SW ACTIVE
Smurfit WestRock plc
D+ 56/100 31.9x 19.4% 4.7% +1.32% $22.60B Benchmark Subject
PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
B 75/100 29.3x 21.0% 10.9% +0.90% $22.88B /pkg-vs-sw →
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
B 72/100 18.1x 36.0% 43.6% -1.89% $35.90B /kmb-vs-sw →
AVY
Avery Dennison Corporation
B 74/100 20.1x 28.8% 17.4% +0.09% $13.81B /avy-vs-sw →
WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.
B- 71/100 24.0x 38.3% 22.3% -0.80% $10.21B /wms-vs-sw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002005951 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) reported GAAP revenue of $31.18B (+47.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $21.11B , and +157.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $699.0M, operating cash flow of $3.39B, and free cash flow of $1.99B (+273.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SW closed FY2025 with $45.16B in total assets against $12.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.49, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $31.18B $699.0M $3.39B $1.99B $45.16B $12.06B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $21.11B $319.0M $1.48B $533.1M $43.76B $11.87B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $12.09B $825.0M $1.56B $1.01B $14.51B $3.40B

3. SW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Smurfit WestRock plc (NYSE: SW) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $43.09 (+1.32% 1D, market cap $22.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SW ranks #408 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SW compare to PKG and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), SW carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.9x, gross margin of 19.4%, and ROIC of 4.7%. By comparison, PKG (Packaging Corporation of America) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.3x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $22.88B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SW?

Per SW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002005951), Smurfit WestRock plc generated $31.18B in revenue (+47.7% YoY), $699.0M in net income, and $1.99B in free cash flow against $45.16B in total assets and $12.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SW last traded at $43.09 (+1.32% on volume of 5,248,696 shares), positioning the stock -1.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($43.60) and -0.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($43.45). Across its 52-week range of $32.73 to $52.65, SW sits at the 52.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($39.99 to $46.19).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SW — Smurfit WestRock plc: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $43.09 (+1.32% 1D, market capitalization $22.60B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.7%, gross margin of 19.4%, operating margin of 5.5%, and free cash flow yield of 8.92%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.88x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.49, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.61x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry, profile. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 19.4%, an operating margin of 5.5%, and a net margin of 2.2%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) reported $31.18B in annual revenue (up from $21.11B in FY2024, +47.7% YoY) and $699.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($12.09B revenue, $825.0M net income) through FY2025, SW scaled operating cash flow to $3.39B and free cash flow to $1.99B, backed by $45.16B in total assets against $12.06B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.92% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $32.73 – $52.65 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 31.9x trailing P/E and 11.2x EV/EBITDA against 5.5% operating margins and a 0.88x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlations are — The sector and industry classification (Consumer Discretionary / Containers/Packaging) is the only sector-level context provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can SW sustain or expand its 5.5% operating margin and 4.7% ROIC against Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $31.18B and free cash flow of $1.99B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $12.06B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SW's 26.8x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.88x)?

SW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $51.28 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

An 8.92% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 point to cash generation and financial hygiene that could support the stock if the fo

Don't sleep on SW's setup in Consumer Discretionary. An 8.92% FCF yield and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 point to cash generation and financial hygiene that could support the stock if the forward P/E of 26.8 is realized.. Beta of 0.88 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (56/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SW's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.61 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $43.09

A 4.7% ROIC, an Altman Z-Score of 1.49, and a guidance-cut headline suggest weak returns and balance-sheet stress against a trailing P/

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SW above $43.09. A 4.7% ROIC, an Altman Z-Score of 1.49, and a guidance-cut headline suggest weak returns and balance-sheet stress against a trailing P/E of 31.9.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20) and FCF yield (8.92%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $52.65.

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