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Stock Ratings / Financials / TCBK
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TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$53.61 +2.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.71

TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.71B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TCBK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TCBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ: TCBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $53.61 (+2.08% 1D, market cap $1.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCBK ranks #208 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TCBK compare to HOPE and NBHC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TCBK carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, HOPE (Hope Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 28.0x, ROIC 2.7%, cap $1.70B) and NBHC (National Bank Holdings Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $1.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBK?
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Per TCBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000356171), TriCo Bancshares generated $53.4M in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $121.6M in net income, and $127.9M in free cash flow against $9.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $53.71 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 239.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (15)Whales (8)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$66 Bull$56 Base$43 Bear
📬 FREE TCBK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TCBK SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 239.4% FCF Margin ($127.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$50.77+4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$52.79+0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$53.02+1.1% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$53.61+1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TCBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, TCBK faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($52.77) or 200D SMA ($52.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($55.54) toward Bear Floor ($43.32).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TCBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
5530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE54% OF RANGE
L: $44$53.61H: $62
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on TCBK

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (75)

9.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.48% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (63)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TCBK
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TCBK Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TCBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.39%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $52.52H $53.61L $52.52C $53.61VOL 250.4K
RES: $54.43SUP: $49.89SMA50: $52.77SMA200: $52.03
$62.76$58.41$54.07$49.73$45.38RES $54.43SUP $49.89$53.612026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TCBK Butterfly Map → + Track TCBK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCBK)

Financials Rank #208 of 1097 ⚔️ HOPE vs TCBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCBK vs. HOPE, NBHC, QCRH, BFC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) ranks #208 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #454 by equity capitalization ($1.71B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QCRH leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while QCRH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. TCBK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TCBK ACTIVE
TriCo Bancshares
C+ 66/100 14.1x — 9.2% +2.08% $1.71B Benchmark Subject
HOPE
Hope Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 28.0x — 2.7% +0.83% $1.70B /hope-vs-tcbk →
NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation
D+ 55/100 15.3x — 7.9% +1.68% $1.70B /nbhc-vs-tcbk →
QCRH
QCR Holdings Inc.
C 64/100 13.2x — 11.4% +2.03% $1.69B /qcrh-vs-tcbk →
BFC
Bank First Corporation
D+ 58/100 23.4x — 11.1% +1.29% $1.67B /bfc-vs-tcbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000356171 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) reported GAAP revenue of $53.4M (+4.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $51.3M , and +6.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $121.6M, operating cash flow of $133.3M, and free cash flow of $127.9M (+21.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCBK closed FY2025 with $9.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $53.4M $121.6M $133.3M $127.9M $9.82B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $51.3M $114.9M $109.7M $105.2M $9.67B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $50.1M $117.4M $138.9M $138.9M — —

3. TCBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ: TCBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $53.61 (+2.08% 1D, market cap $1.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCBK ranks #208 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TCBK compare to HOPE and NBHC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TCBK carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, HOPE (Hope Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 28.0x, ROIC 2.7%, cap $1.70B) and NBHC (National Bank Holdings Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 7.9%, cap $1.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBK?

Per TCBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000356171), TriCo Bancshares generated $53.4M in revenue (+4.1% YoY), $121.6M in net income, and $127.9M in free cash flow against $9.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TCBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCBK last traded at $53.61 (+2.08% on volume of 250,395 shares), positioning the stock +1.59% above its 50-day simple moving average ($52.77) and +3.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($52.03). Across its 52-week range of $43.96 to $61.71, TCBK sits at the 54.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($51.41 to $55.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: TCBK RQD Cockpit TCBK 12M Forecast TCBK Earnings & Move TCBK Dividends & DRIP TCBK Insiders & 13F TCBK Whale Options TCBK Profit Sankey TCBK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TCBK — TriCo Bancshares: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $53.61 (+2.08% 1D, market capitalization $1.71B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.48%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. Its market capitalization is listed at $1.7B in the profile.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) reported $53.4M in annual revenue (up from $51.3M in FY2024, +4.1% YoY) and $121.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($50.1M revenue, $117.4M net income) through FY2025, TCBK scaled operating cash flow to $133.3M and free cash flow to $127.9M, backed by $9.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 66/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $43.96 – $61.71 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Financials / Major Banks classification. For a prospective investor, the merger-execution theme in the news wire is the most relevant ripple to monitor, since the source links merger progress to both earnings-stock reaction and the First Hawaiian transaction, but the source does not quantify any downstream effect.

  • Key Question #1: Can TCBK sustain or expand its — operating margin and 9.2% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $53.4M and free cash flow of $127.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TCBK's 13.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TCBK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TCBK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TCBK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $53.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TCBK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TCBK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $67.75 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 16/20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar in the rating.

The street is overcomplicating TriCo Bancshares (TCBK). Insider conviction scores 16/20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar in the rating.. With an RQD score of 66/100 (C+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $56.72.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TCBK's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $40.44 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $52.52

The Q3 earnings coverage carries a RED risk-watch flag tied to merger execution, and institutional flow scores only 12/20.

Careful chasing TCBK at $52.52. The Q3 earnings coverage carries a RED risk-watch flag tied to merger execution, and institutional flow scores only 12/20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $40.44 on multiple compression.

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