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Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$17.25 -0.17% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.21

Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $49.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TCBS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TCBS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: TCBS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $17.25 (-0.17% 1D, market cap $49.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCBS ranks #536 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TCBS compare to MBBC and FNWB in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Banks), TCBS carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.3%. By comparison, MBBC (Marathon Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $43.7M) and FNWB (First Northwest Bancorp) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.7%, cap $97.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBS leads on earnings multiple (17.5x) while TCBS leads on capital efficiency (5.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBS?
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Per TCBS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001849466), Texas Community Bancshares Inc. generated $180.5M in revenue (-3.1% YoY), $2.8M in net income, and $973.0K in free cash flow against $429.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.21 (-0.22%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk B-
Cash (5)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (15)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target
$21 Bull$17 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE TCBS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCBS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TCBS SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 57 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$17.00-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$16.95+0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$17.08+1% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$17.25-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TCBS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, TCBS faces multiple-compression risk if 17.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.04% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.19) or 200D SMA ($17.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.02) toward Bear Floor ($13.28).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCBS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TCBS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TCBS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.25: 579.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.28
$7,699
$-2,301 (-23.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.02
$9,867
$-133 (-1.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $21.00
$12,174
+$2,174 (+21.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TCBS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TCBS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TCBS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.98%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $17.28H $17.28L $17.25C $17.25VOL 177
RES: $17.84SUP: $16.85SMA50: $17.19SMA200: $17.15
$18.63$18.00$17.37$16.74$16.11RES $17.84SUP $16.85$17.252026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCBS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TCBS Butterfly Map → + Track TCBS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCBS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCBS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCBS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCBS)

Financials Rank #536 of 1097 ⚔️ MBBC vs TCBS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCBS vs. MBBC, FNWB, BSBK, WSBK)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) ranks #536 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #1009 by equity capitalization ($49.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBS leads on earnings valuation at 17.5x trailing P/E, while TCBS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.3% ROIC and — gross margin. MBBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with TCBS at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TCBS ACTIVE
Texas Community Bancshares Inc.
D+ 55/100 17.5x — 5.3% -0.17% $49.6M Benchmark Subject
MBBC
Marathon Bancorp Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — 0.1% 0.00% $43.7M /mbbc-vs-tcbs →
FNWB
First Northwest Bancorp
E 32/100 — — -2.7% +0.68% $97.3M /fnwb-vs-tcbs →
BSBK
Bogota Financial Corp.
D+ 56/100 56.3x — 1.5% +1.64% $116.5M /bsbk-vs-tcbs →
WSBK
Winchester Bancorp Inc.
D+ 53/100 — — -0.7% +0.75% $124.0M /wsbk-vs-tcbs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001849466 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) reported GAAP revenue of $180.5M (-3.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $186.3M , and +1920.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.8M, operating cash flow of $1.4M, and free cash flow of $973.0K (+31.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCBS closed FY2025 with $429.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $180.5M $2.8M $1.4M $973.0K $429.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $186.3M -$1.3M $1.9M $740.0K $443.5M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $8.9M -$733.0K $2.3M $2.3M — —

3. TCBS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCBS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: TCBS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $17.25 (-0.17% 1D, market cap $49.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCBS ranks #536 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TCBS compare to MBBC and FNWB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), TCBS carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.3%. By comparison, MBBC (Marathon Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $43.7M) and FNWB (First Northwest Bancorp) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.7%, cap $97.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBS leads on earnings multiple (17.5x) while TCBS leads on capital efficiency (5.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCBS?

Per TCBS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001849466), Texas Community Bancshares Inc. generated $180.5M in revenue (-3.1% YoY), $2.8M in net income, and $973.0K in free cash flow against $429.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TCBS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCBS last traded at $17.25 (-0.17% on volume of 1,452 shares), positioning the stock +0.35% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.19) and +0.58% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.15). Across its 52-week range of $15.72 to $20.00, TCBS sits at the 35.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($16.94 to $17.56).

Direct Sub-Reports: TCBS RQD Cockpit TCBS 12M Forecast TCBS Earnings & Move TCBS Dividends & DRIP TCBS Insiders & 13F TCBS Whale Options TCBS Profit Sankey TCBS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TCBS — Texas Community Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.25 (-0.17% 1D, market capitalization $49.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 1.96%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Banks industry. Per the Butterfly graph, no supply-chain relationships are mapped. The profile's stated market capitalization is $0.0B, which conflicts with the $49.6M figure in market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) reported $180.5M in annual revenue (up from $186.3M in FY2024, -3.1% YoY) and $2.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($8.9M revenue, -$733.0K net income) through FY2025, TCBS scaled operating cash flow to $1.4M and free cash flow to $973.0K, backed by $429.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 1.96% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $15.72 – $20.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 17.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Banks (Financials), TCBS carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can TCBS sustain or expand its — operating margin and 5.3% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $180.5M and free cash flow of $973.0K, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TCBS's 16.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TCBS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Community Bancshares Inc. (TCBS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TCBS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TCBS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TCBS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TCBS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.39 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income swung to $2.8M in FY 2025 from losses in the two prior years while the stock trades near its 52-week low at a 1.19% dividend

Here is why I am bullish on TCBS here at $17.28: Net income swung to $2.8M in FY 2025 from losses in the two prior years while the stock trades near its 52-week low at a 1.19% dividend yield.. Compare TCBS's 0.0% operating margin and 5.3% ROIC against the rest of Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $16.42 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 55/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $17.28 and keeping dry powder in case we test $16.07.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.82 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $17.28

The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 5 of 20, with ROIC of 5.3% and FCF yield of 1.96%, and no reported revenue or operating

I respect the product at Texas Community Bancshares Inc., but the stock at $17.28 is a different story. The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 5 of 20, with ROIC of 5.3% and FCF yield of 1.96%, and no reported revenue or operating income in any period.. FCF yield is 1.96% and RQD sits at 55/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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