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Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$49.59 -2.50% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.27

Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $439.4M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (NYSE: TCI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $49.59 (-2.50% 1D, market cap $439.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCI ranks #925 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TCI compare to ILPT and BRSP in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), TCI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.6%. By comparison, ILPT (Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.5%, cap $442.1M) and BRSP (BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.3%, cap $445.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCI leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while NXRT leads on capital efficiency (7.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCI?
β–Ό

Per TCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000733590), Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. generated $49.1M in revenue (+4.2% YoY), $13.8M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $49.27 (-0.64%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510039
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk D
Cash (3)Whales (14)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
$63 Bull$45 Base$35 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE TCI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY TCI SCORES 39/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (36% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±5.8% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
31
Grade E$48.91-1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$48.34+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$48.96+1.3% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$49.59-7.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (31) β†’ D- (39)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TCI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While TCI currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($44.04) and Max Pain ($52.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $62.63.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCIβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œTCI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±5.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TCI)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TCI.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TCI)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of TCI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.60%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $49.93H $50.86L $49.59C $49.59VOL 8.0K
RES: $51.95SUP: $34.78SMA50: $44.04SMA200: $41.58
$52.15$47.26$42.37$37.47$32.58RES $51.95SUP $34.78$49.592026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ TCI Butterfly Map β†’ + Track TCI β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCI)

Financials Rank #925 of 1097 βš”οΈ ILPT vs TCI Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCI vs. ILPT, BRSP, FVR, NXRT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) ranks #925 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #733 by equity capitalization ($439.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCI leads on earnings valuation at 31.6x trailing P/E, while NXRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.8% ROIC and β€” gross margin. ILPT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with TCI at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TCI ACTIVE
Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.
D- 39/100 31.6x β€” -0.6% -2.50% $439.4M Benchmark Subject
ILPT
Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of
D 49/100 β€” β€” -13.5% -2.42% $442.1M /ilpt-vs-tci β†’
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A)
D- 35/100 β€” β€” -3.3% -2.52% $445.1M /brsp-vs-tci β†’
FVR
FrontView REIT Inc.
D 45/100 β€” β€” -1.2% -0.11% $459.8M /fvr-vs-tci β†’
NXRT
NexPoint Residential Trust Inc.
D- 41/100 β€” β€” 7.8% -8.65% $460.9M /nxrt-vs-tci β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000733590 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) reported GAAP revenue of $49.1M (+4.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $47.1M , and -1.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $13.8M, operating cash flow of -$2.9M, and free cash flow of -$2.9M (-320.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCI closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $49.1M $13.8M -$2.9M -$2.9M $1.13B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $47.1M $5.9M $1.3M $1.3M $1.07B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $49.9M $5.9M -$31.1M -$31.1M β€” β€”

3. TCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (NYSE: TCI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $49.59 (-2.50% 1D, market cap $439.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCI ranks #925 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TCI compare to ILPT and BRSP in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), TCI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.6x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.6%. By comparison, ILPT (Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.5%, cap $442.1M) and BRSP (BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.3%, cap $445.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCI leads on earnings multiple (31.6x) while NXRT leads on capital efficiency (7.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCI?

Per TCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000733590), Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. generated $49.1M in revenue (+4.2% YoY), $13.8M in net income, and -$2.9M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCI last traded at $49.59 (-2.50% on volume of 7,636 shares), positioning the stock +12.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($44.04) and +19.26% above its 200-day simple moving average ($41.58). Across its 52-week range of $31.48 to $59.65, TCI sits at the 64.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 69.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.8% ($46.71 to $52.47).

Direct Sub-Reports: TCI RQD Cockpit TCI 12M Forecast TCI Earnings & Move TCI Dividends & DRIP TCI Insiders & 13F TCI Whale Options TCI Profit Sankey TCI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 39/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TCI β€” Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $49.59 (-2.50% 1D, market capitalization $439.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.6%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -12.9%, and free cash flow yield of -0.66%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. The profile does not describe its specific property holdings, tenant base, or revenue mix.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) reported $49.1M in annual revenue (up from $47.1M in FY2024, +4.2% YoY) and $13.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($49.9M revenue, $5.9M net income) through FY2025, TCI scaled operating cash flow to -$2.9M and free cash flow to -$2.9M, backed by $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.66% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $31.48 – $59.65 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 31.6x trailing P/E against -12.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), TCI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of β€”.

  • Key Question #1: Can TCI sustain or expand its -12.9% operating margin and -0.6% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $49.1M and free cash flow of -$2.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TCI's 29.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TCI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc. (TCI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to TCI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TCI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $49.59?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TCI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TCI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Systematic Momentum Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $62.91 (+26.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional whale-flow scores 14/20 and the stock has recovered to cross above its two-hundred-day moving average near $50.

Long TCI at $49.93 targeting $62.91. Institutional whale-flow scores 14/20 and the stock has recovered to cross above its two-hundred-day moving average near $50.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $31.48 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 39/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $49.93 and keeping dry powder in case we test $46.43.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $37.95 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $49.93

A 29.4x forward P/E sits against -0.6% ROIC and a -0.66% FCF yield, with insider flow scoring only 3/20.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TCI above $49.93. A 29.4x forward P/E sits against -0.6% ROIC and a -0.66% FCF yield, with insider flow scoring only 3/20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20) and FCF yield (-0.66%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $59.65.

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