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Stock Ratings / Financials / TCPC / options
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BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$4.18 -0.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.16

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $350.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TCPC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (NASDAQ: TCPC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $4.18 (-0.95% 1D, market cap $350.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCPC ranks #797 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TCPC compare to CION and SDHY in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), TCPC carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -14.9%. By comparison, CION (CION Investment Corporation) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $343.9M) and SDHY (PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities Fund) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $376.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCPC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CION leads on capital efficiency (-2.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCPC?
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Per TCPC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001370755), BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. generated $693.2M in revenue (-14.2% YoY), -$88.9M in net income, and $154.9M in free cash flow against $1.65B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.16 (-0.36%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 22.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (9)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (11)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.7% Base Target
$7 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE TCPC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TCPC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TCPC SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$3.98+2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$4.09+1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$4.13+1.2% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$4.18-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TCPC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TCPC currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.06) and Max Pain ($4.39) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TCPC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TCPC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±5.8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TCPC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TCPC.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TCPC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TCPC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TCPC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.78%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $4.22H $4.22L $4.18C $4.18VOL 572.9K
RES: $4.23SUP: $3.96SMA50: $4.06SMA200: $4.00
$5.73$5.01$4.30$3.58$2.86RES $4.23SUP $3.96$4.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TCPC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TCPC Butterfly Map → + Track TCPC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -14.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TCPC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TCPC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TCPC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TCPC)

Financials Rank #797 of 1097 ⚔️ CION vs TCPC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TCPC vs. CION, SDHY, FINS, RFMZ)

Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) ranks #797 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #779 by equity capitalization ($350.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCPC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CION leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -2.9% ROIC and — gross margin. CION currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with TCPC at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TCPC ACTIVE
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.
D 45/100 — — -14.9% -0.95% $350.7M Benchmark Subject
CION
CION Investment Corporation
D 48/100 — — -2.9% -1.69% $343.9M /cion-vs-tcpc →
SDHY
PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities Fund
D 44/100 — — — -0.84% $376.5M /sdhy-vs-tcpc →
FINS
Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust of
D 45/100 — — — -0.42% $297.7M /fins-vs-tcpc →
RFMZ
RiverNorth Flexible Municipal Income Fund II Inc.
D 48/100 — — — 0.00% $295.4M /rfmz-vs-tcpc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001370755 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) reported GAAP revenue of $693.2M (-14.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $807.7M , and +97.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$88.9M, operating cash flow of $154.9M, and free cash flow of $154.9M (-47.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TCPC closed FY2025 with $1.65B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $693.2M -$88.9M $154.9M $154.9M $1.65B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $807.7M -$63.1M $293.1M $293.1M $1.92B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $351.3M $38.5M $92.5M $92.5M — —

3. TCPC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TCPC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (NASDAQ: TCPC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $4.18 (-0.95% 1D, market cap $350.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TCPC ranks #797 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TCPC compare to CION and SDHY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), TCPC carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -14.9%. By comparison, CION (CION Investment Corporation) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $343.9M) and SDHY (PGIM Short Duration High Yield Opportunities Fund) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $376.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCPC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CION leads on capital efficiency (-2.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TCPC?

Per TCPC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001370755), BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. generated $693.2M in revenue (-14.2% YoY), -$88.9M in net income, and $154.9M in free cash flow against $1.65B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TCPC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TCPC last traded at $4.18 (-0.95% on volume of 572,872 shares), positioning the stock +2.96% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.06) and +4.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.00). Across its 52-week range of $3.08 to $6.25, TCPC sits at the 34.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($3.94 to $4.42).

Direct Sub-Reports: TCPC RQD Cockpit TCPC 12M Forecast TCPC Earnings & Move TCPC Dividends & DRIP TCPC Insiders & 13F TCPC Whale Options TCPC Profit Sankey TCPC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TCPC — BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.18 (-0.95% 1D, market capitalization $350.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -14.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (TCPC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating within the Finance/Investors Services industry. Its market capitalization is $0.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) reported $693.2M in annual revenue (up from $807.7M in FY2024, -14.2% YoY) and -$88.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($351.3M revenue, $38.5M net income) through FY2025, TCPC scaled operating cash flow to $154.9M and free cash flow to $154.9M, backed by $1.65B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.08 – $6.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies are mapped, and no sector correlations or proprietary signals are provided. A prospective investor should therefore treat second-order ripple effects as unmapped in the source data. The asset-sale and activist-stake headlines in the news feed are the only indicators of possible 2nd-order events, and their implications are not quantified in the sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can TCPC sustain or expand its — operating margin and -14.9% ROIC against Finance/Investors Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $693.2M and free cash flow of $154.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TCPC's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TCPC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TCPC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TCPC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.18?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TCPC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TCPC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.06 (+21.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the news feed, an activist stake of 5.11% has been reported, and the stock's 52-week range low of $3.08 sits below the current $4.2

Per the news feed, an activist stake of 5.11% has been reported, and the stock's 52-week range low of $3.08 sits below the current $4.22 price.. When you look under the hood at TCPC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 9/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -14.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $6.25. My 12M target is $5.06.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 45/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $4.18 and keeping dry powder in case we test $3.89.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.13 (-25.1%)
Spot @ $4.18

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -14.9%, FCF yield is 0%, and the insider conviction pillar scores only 5 of 20.

Careful chasing TCPC at $4.18. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -14.9%, FCF yield is 0%, and the insider conviction pillar scores only 5 of 20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $3.13 on multiple compression.

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