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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TDUP / forecast
QVCG (33) SFIX (19) BZUN (50) NXH (18) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (TDUP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.09 +0.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.09

ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (TDUP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $273.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TDUP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TDUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TDUP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $2.09 (+0.48% 1D, market cap $273.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TDUP ranks #914 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TDUP compare to QVCG and SFIX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), TDUP carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, QVCG (QVC Group Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $345.0M) and SFIX (Stitch Fix Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -33.9%, cap $360.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TDUP leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BZUN leads on capital efficiency (1.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TDUP?
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Per TDUP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001484778), ThredUp Inc. (Class A) generated $310.8M in revenue (+19.5% YoY), -$20.2M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $167.2M in total assets and $14.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.09 (-0.10%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 2.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510027
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.9% Base Target
$9 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE TDUP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TDUP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TDUP SCORES 27/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 3% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$2.31-0.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
32
Grade E$2.29-11.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$2.02+3.5% Next Q
Current
27
Grade E$2.09-10.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → E (27)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TDUP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TDUP currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.37) and Max Pain ($2.19) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.25.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TDUP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TDUP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TDUP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.09: 4784.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.40
$6,699
$-3,301 (-33.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $1.80
$8,612
$-1,388 (-13.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.25
$44,258
+$34,258 (+342.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TDUP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TDUP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TDUP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -52.17%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.22H $2.22L $2.08C $2.09VOL 1.61M
RES: $7.81SUP: $1.65SMA50: $2.37SMA200: $4.12
$7.54$6.01$4.49$2.96$1.44RES $7.81SUP $1.65$2.092026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TDUP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TDUP Butterfly Map → + Track TDUP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TDUP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TDUP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TDUP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TDUP)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #914 of 1009 ⚔️ QVCG vs TDUP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TDUP vs. QVCG, SFIX, BZUN, NXH)

Industry: Catalog/Specialty Distribution (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (TDUP) ranks #914 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #652 by equity capitalization ($273.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TDUP leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while BZUN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.6% ROIC and 74.1% gross margin. BZUN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with TDUP at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TDUP ACTIVE
ThredUp Inc. (Class A)
E 27/100 — 79.4% -35.0% +0.48% $273.2M Benchmark Subject
QVCG
QVC Group Inc.
E 33/100 — 33.6% -35.0% +10.00% $345.0M /qvcg-vs-tdup →
SFIX
Stitch Fix Inc. (Class A)
E 19/100 — 44.4% -33.9% +3.33% $360.7M /sfix-vs-tdup →
BZUN
Baozun Inc.
D 50/100 — 74.1% 1.6% -3.06% $190.1M /bzun-vs-tdup →
NXH
Neighborhood Intelligence Inc.
E 18/100 — 24.7% -35.0% +10.46% $168.2M /nxh-vs-tdup →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001484778 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (TDUP) reported GAAP revenue of $310.8M (+19.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $260.0M , and +20.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$20.2M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, TDUP closed FY2025 with $167.2M in total assets against $14.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $310.8M -$20.2M — — $167.2M $14.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $260.0M -$77.0M — — $171.2M $18.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $258.5M -$71.2M -$22.6M -$22.6M — —

3. TDUP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TDUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TDUP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $2.09 (+0.48% 1D, market cap $273.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TDUP ranks #914 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TDUP compare to QVCG and SFIX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), TDUP carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.4%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, QVCG (QVC Group Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $345.0M) and SFIX (Stitch Fix Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (19/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -33.9%, cap $360.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TDUP leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BZUN leads on capital efficiency (1.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TDUP?

Per TDUP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001484778), ThredUp Inc. (Class A) generated $310.8M in revenue (+19.5% YoY), -$20.2M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $167.2M in total assets and $14.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TDUP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TDUP last traded at $2.09 (+0.48% on volume of 1,610,781 shares), positioning the stock -11.81% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.37) and -49.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.12). Across its 52-week range of $1.91 to $8.81, TDUP sits at the 2.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.83 to $2.35).

Direct Sub-Reports: TDUP RQD Cockpit TDUP 12M Forecast TDUP Earnings & Move TDUP Dividends & DRIP TDUP Insiders & 13F TDUP Whale Options TDUP Profit Sankey TDUP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 27/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TDUP — ThredUp Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (TDUP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 27/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.09 (+0.48% 1D, market capitalization $273.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 79.4%, operating margin of -7.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.24x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Catalog/Specialty Distribution industry. FY 2025 revenue was $310.8M, and per the market data, gross margin was 79.4% while operating margin was -7%. The company's sector and industry classification places it in specialty retail and distribution.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (TDUP) reported $310.8M in annual revenue (up from $260.0M in FY2024, +19.5% YoY) and -$20.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($258.5M revenue, -$71.2M net income) through FY2025, TDUP scaled operating cash flow to $0 and free cash flow to $0, backed by $167.2M in total assets against $14.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 27/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.91 – $8.81 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -7.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is classified as NONE, and the butterfly_links array is empty. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers or downstream customers. Sector context is limited to Consumer Discretionary and Catalog/Specialty Distribution.

  • Key Question #1: Can TDUP sustain or expand its -7.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Catalog/Specialty Distribution peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $310.8M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $14.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TDUP's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TDUP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ThredUp Inc. (Class A) (TDUP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TDUP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TDUP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TDUP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TDUP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.39 (+14.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Gross margin of 79.4% and cash of $38.6M exceeding debt of $14.3M give the business room to improve if operating losses narrow.

Gross margin of 79.4% and cash of $38.6M exceeding debt of $14.3M give the business room to improve if operating losses narrow.. When you look under the hood at TDUP, Fundamental Cash Engine is 4/20 with 79.4% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $8.81. My 12M target is $2.39.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.08 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.56 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $2.08

An Altman Z-Score of 0.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and ROIC of -35% signal forensic distress alongside continued operating losses.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on TDUP: An Altman Z-Score of 0.2, a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and ROIC of -35% signal forensic distress alongside continued operating losses.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Catalog/Specialty Distribution triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE