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Stock Ratings / Financials / TFIN / news
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Why TFIN Stock surged +2.96% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$63.94 +2.96% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.16

Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.49B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Triumph Financial Inc. (NYSE: TFIN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $63.94 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $1.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TFIN ranks #851 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TFIN compare to LKFN and AMAL in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TFIN carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 59.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.7%. By comparison, LKFN (Lakeland Financial Corporation) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 14.6x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $1.48B) and AMAL (Amalgamated Financial Corp.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 14.7x, ROIC 13.1%, cap $1.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMP leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while TMP leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFIN?
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Per TFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001539638), Triumph Financial Inc. generated $2.68B in revenue (+7.3% YoY), $25.4M in net income, and $67.1M in free cash flow against $6.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $64.16 (+0.34%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 2.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$88 Bull$60 Base$47 Bear
📬 FREE TFIN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TFIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TFIN SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.5% FCF Margin ($67.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$62.42-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$62.22+2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$63.99-0.1% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$63.94-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TFIN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TFIN currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($64.27) and Max Pain ($67.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $87.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TFIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TFIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TFIN Stock surged +2.96% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) surged +2.96% to $63.94, trading at 43% of its 52-week range ($49.27 – $83.52). Stretched risk/reward at 60x P/E (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 43% of its 52-week range ($49.27 – $83.52) with RSI-14 at 45.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6% around $63.94 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $67.1M annual free cash flow.
Live TFIN Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TFIN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TFIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TFIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.65%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $63.47H $63.94L $62.10C $63.94VOL 150.2K
RES: $64.33SUP: $58.66SMA50: $64.27SMA200: $67.18
$85.24$78.13$71.02$63.91$56.80RES $64.33SUP $58.66$63.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TFIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TFIN Butterfly Map → + Track TFIN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
41.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TFIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TFIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TFIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TFIN)

Financials Rank #851 of 1097 ⚔️ LKFN vs TFIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TFIN vs. LKFN, AMAL, TMP, BHRB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) ranks #851 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #487 by equity capitalization ($1.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMP leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while TMP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. AMAL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with TFIN at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TFIN ACTIVE
Triumph Financial Inc.
D- 43/100 59.9x — 2.7% +2.96% $1.49B Benchmark Subject
LKFN
Lakeland Financial Corporation
C+ 66/100 14.6x — 13.6% +2.91% $1.48B /lkfn-vs-tfin →
AMAL
Amalgamated Financial Corp.
B 72/100 14.7x — 13.1% +1.07% $1.50B /amal-vs-tfin →
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
C- 59/100 9.1x — 17.2% +1.97% $1.43B /tmp-vs-tfin →
BHRB
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.
C 64/100 12.2x — 13.7% +2.23% $1.42B /bhrb-vs-tfin →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001539638 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.68B (+7.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.50B , and +902.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $25.4M, operating cash flow of $67.1M, and free cash flow of $67.1M (+14.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TFIN closed FY2025 with $6.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.68B $25.4M $67.1M $67.1M $6.38B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.50B $16.1M $58.5M $58.5M $5.95B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $267.4M $41.1M $60.0M $60.0M — —

3. TFIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TFIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Triumph Financial Inc. (NYSE: TFIN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $63.94 (+2.96% 1D, market cap $1.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TFIN ranks #851 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TFIN compare to LKFN and AMAL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TFIN carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 59.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.7%. By comparison, LKFN (Lakeland Financial Corporation) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 14.6x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $1.48B) and AMAL (Amalgamated Financial Corp.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 14.7x, ROIC 13.1%, cap $1.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMP leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while TMP leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFIN?

Per TFIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001539638), Triumph Financial Inc. generated $2.68B in revenue (+7.3% YoY), $25.4M in net income, and $67.1M in free cash flow against $6.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TFIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TFIN last traded at $63.94 (+2.96% on volume of 240,657 shares), positioning the stock -0.51% below its 50-day simple moving average ($64.27) and -4.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($67.18). Across its 52-week range of $49.27 to $83.52, TFIN sits at the 42.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($60.10 to $67.78).

Direct Sub-Reports: TFIN RQD Cockpit TFIN 12M Forecast TFIN Earnings & Move TFIN Dividends & DRIP TFIN Insiders & 13F TFIN Whale Options TFIN Profit Sankey TFIN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TFIN — Triumph Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $63.94 (+2.96% 1D, market capitalization $1.49B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 4.42%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) is a NYSE-listed issuer...5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) reported $2.68B in annual revenue (up from $2.50B in FY2024, +7.3% YoY) and $25.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($267.4M revenue, $41.1M net income) through FY2025, TFIN scaled operating cash flow to $67.1M and free cash flow to $67.1M, backed by $6.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 4.42% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $49.27 – $83.52 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 59.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector-correlation links, and no identified bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can TFIN sustain or expand its — operating margin and 2.7% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.68B and free cash flow of $67.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TFIN's 55.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TFIN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Triumph Financial Inc. (TFIN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TFIN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TFIN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $63.94?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TFIN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TFIN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $73.28 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with a 4.42% FCF yield, and reported FCF rose from $58.5M to $67.1M over FY 2024–FY 2025.

Here is why I am bullish on TFIN here at $62.10: Forensic balance sheet scores 13/20 with a 4.42% FCF yield, and reported FCF rose from $58.5M to $67.1M over FY 2024–FY 2025.. Compare TFIN's 0.0% operating margin and 2.7% ROIC against the rest of Major Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $58.99 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TFIN's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $50.30 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $62.10

The RQD rating is 43/100 (D-), with ROIC at 2.7% and a 59.9 TTM P/E against EPS of 1.06, and a RISK WATCH item flags the stock as overp

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TFIN above $62.10. The RQD rating is 43/100 (D-), with ROIC at 2.7% and a 59.9 TTM P/E against EPS of 1.06, and a RISK WATCH item flags the stock as overpriced.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20) and FCF yield (4.42%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $83.52.

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